usedtobe Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/warmer-than-normal-temperatures-returning-snow-chances-low/2013/01/02/1e1abb80-5502-11e2-bf3e-76c0a789346f_blog.html#pagebreak My thoughts for the 1st half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 As usual, very difficult to argue another case. Those maps are just ugly. Thanks Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 looks like the euro warmup is brief only although it does get pretty hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 It's a paradox Wes. It's like an excellent article and stuff but it's so terribly bad at the same time and things. If the skins weren't playing on Sunday then I would be upset but since they are, I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Looking forward into the gaping fiery hot jaws of Hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Looking forward into the gaping fiery hot jaws of Hell. Sounds like a personal problem. Wes thanks for another depressing write up, enjoy Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 It's a paradox Wes. It's like an excellent article and stuff but it's so terribly bad at the same time and things. If the skins weren't playing on Sunday then I would be upset but since they are, I'm not. The paradox is that my own article depressed me but Ji seems to be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 disaster For snow yes, but your winter forecast is looking top grade compared to most others this winter unless we really go into a freeze later this January. Of course we still need Feb to perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 For snow yes, but your winter forecast is looking top grade compared to most others this winter unless we really go into a freeze later this January. Of course we still need Feb to perform. I went too cold maybe...In january too...unless we get cold at the end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I got a week of winter and 6.5" of snow IMBY this year, which beats the hell out of last year at least. If we only get one week this year - and that's looking more likely every day - thank God that it happened over Christmas. Very well presented data and explanations, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 At this point, 5+ days models have handled 4 out of last 5 winters terribly. 07-08 and 08-09 were the seasons for low pressures being switched from into the lakes to off SC coast every other run, 09-10 very well, last two season very poor with cold versus mild air intrusions. What is relationship between this board and CWG, mutual ownership interests?? Jason has done a wonderful job with CWG and participants here need to understand that their "afraid of cold/snow" slant is because they are not writing for a winter weather board but rather for the population of DC which is mostly freaked out by snow and even cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 At this point, 5+ days models have handled 4 out of last 5 winters terribly. 07-08 and 08-09 were the seasons for low pressures being switched from into the lakes to off SC coast every other run, 09-10 very well, last two season very poor with cold versus mild air intrusions. What is relationship between this board and CWG, mutual ownership interests?? Jason has done a wonderful job with CWG and participants here need to understand that their "afraid of cold/snow" slant is because they are not writing for a winter weather board but rather for the population of DC which is mostly freaked out by snow and even cold. we have another thread for that so we should discuss there..But Jason has done a phenomenal job...I am trying to keep it here instead of at CWG...I don't wanna be a total ass.....I think CWG has an opportunity to separate themselves from the other media outlets and not view winter as a cheap opportunity to score points by validating the whiners and complainers and frenzy and hysteria and so far they have done an inadequate or more reasonably an inconsistent job at that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Damn Wes, you're forecasting popularity took a hit right after the article was posted. Your accuracy chart hasn't taken a hit this year though. Sometimes being right all the time isn't a good thing. Here's your season to date poll ending at 2:00pm today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 Damn Wes, you're forecasting popularity took a hit right after the article was posted. Your accuracy chart hasn't taken a hit this year though. Sometimes being right all the time isn't a good thing. Here's your season to date poll ending at 2:00pm today: wes pop poll.jpg It's been pretty low for the past two seasons as I haven't been very bullish at all. I did think we had a chance with the one storm early in the game but even that crapped out for us eastern Mid Atlantic folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Nice analysis, Wes. It seems that since Sandy, we have been in a shallow drought with November being over 2.50" deficit, December normal and January starting out quite dry. More importantly, it is a scientific accomplishment to be confident of the national temperature regime for two weeks into the future, the key word being confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Nice write up Wes DCA might never get accumulating snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2013 Author Share Posted January 3, 2013 Nice analysis, Wes. It seems that since Sandy, we have been in a shallow drought with November being over 2.50" deficit, December normal and January starting out quite dry. More importantly, it is a scientific accomplishment to be confident of the national temperature regime for two weeks into the future, the key word being confident. I'm not confident that I know whether any single day in the second week will be warmer or colder but think the odds strongly favor warmer than normal for the aggregate period as patterns are easier to predict than individual shortwaves and all the models seem to be forecasting the same basic pattern and least in their ens means. Still, I'm never confident in any forecast in that time range. I'm just posting my thoughts on what I think is the most likely scenario. Also, I'm only forecasting for here. I think the that the plains may actually end up cooler than normal beyond day 8 as the ridge pokes up into Ak and colder air starts feeding south. In one of my iterations of the article, I mentioned that possibility but then decided to leave it our since I'm only writing for our general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 I'm not confident that I know whether any single day in the second week will be warmer or colder but think the odds strongly favor warmer than normal for the aggregate period as patterns are easier to predict than individual shortwaves and all the models seem to be forecasting the same basic pattern and least in their ens means. Still, I'm never confident in any forecast in that time range. I'm just posting my thoughts on what I think is the most likely scenario. Also, I'm only forecasting for here. I think the that the plains may actually end up cooler than normal beyond day 8 as the ridge pokes up into Ak and colder air starts feeding south. In one of my iterations of the article, I mentioned that possibility but then decided to leave it our since I'm only writing for our general area. Yes, I understand the importance of the cautionary disclaimers. Still, it would be shocking if your analysis is deeply flawed. We had three light snows in northern Maryland for December so we got our taste. If January 20 to February 20 brings a bit more snow, it will be a far more interesting winter that that of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Wes is never wrong. He likes to pretend that he busts a lot but I can't remember him ever really screwing up a forecast. Ignoring a minor snow event that is rain in his backyard doesn't count. If he cancels winter it is really over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Damn Wes, you're forecasting popularity took a hit right after the article was posted. Your accuracy chart hasn't taken a hit this year though. Sometimes being right all the time isn't a good thing. Here's your season to date poll ending at 2:00pm today: wes pop poll.jpg Makes ENRON look merciful! Nice article Wes, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2013 Author Share Posted January 3, 2013 Wes is never wrong. He likes to pretend that he busts a lot but I can't remember him ever really screwing up a forecast. Ignoring a minor snow event that is rain in his backyard doesn't count. If he cancels winter it is really over. Phin, thanks for the compliment though I still remember some busts. I haven't yet cancelled winter. The progs are showing cross polar flow which suggests cold air will dump into the country and we could even get Don's Arctic outbreak into the u.S. beyond day 10, right now it looks like it will impact the west and plains while we stay warm more often than cold at least through mid month but we could have brief cold shots. It even looks like a negative AO is getting going again which would be a good thing. The position of the ridge off the west coast remains a problem for us and the above normal heights over us remain a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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