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Thread specifically for Jan 6 Poss snow event


Damage In Tolland

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18z GFS actually has a nice little band of lift and qpf between .05-.10 across a chunk of the area for Sunday morning. The vortmax on this thing is decent so I won't be surprised if there is some snow out of this. I think it would be mostly under an inch, but not impossible someone could get that.

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Could be the first time in the history if the boards where a thread was started for a passing dry shortwave.

the shortwave is very odd. looks good as modeled but it is moisture starved. BOX spells it out perfectly.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH EXPECTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE TIME ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.

THERE IS DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE. MOST OF THE 05/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SCENARIO WHERE THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHERE THERE ARE ACTIVE ICE NUCLEI ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TIMING DOES NOT QUITE MATCH UP WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SO MOST OF THE SNOW WHICH IS GENERATED ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUBLIMATE INTO THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST FOR SOME OF THE SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. AT THAT POINT THOUGH THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TIME TO ACCUMULATE MUCH.

MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF JUST A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE WATER EQUIVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MOVING PARTS IN CASE THEY LINE UP BETTER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM LOOKS SLOWER.

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AWT

 

 

 

OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A TRACK WELL INTONRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF ITSASSOCIATED UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL ACT INCONJUNCTION WITH SOME SFC-H7 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO GENERATELIGHT PRECIPITATION WELL S OF THE CLIPPER LOW /IN ESSENCEPORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND/. ATTM...GIVEN MUCH OF THE FORCING ISIN THE LOWER LVLS AND THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH REGION IS ABOVE THISFORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX...SNOWFALLGENERATION IS EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED. DESPITE THIS FACT...CAN/TRULE OUT THERE BEING ENOUGH FORCING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR APERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROF. THISFAVORS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA S OF THE MASS PIKE. ITAPPEARS GIVEN THE EARLY RAD COOLING COMBINED WITH A DRY BLSUPPORTING EARLY EVAPORATIVE COOLING ONCE THE TROF MOVES IN...THECOLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR EVEN THE INTERIOR OF THEISLANDS INITIALLY AS PRECIP STARTS...BUT ENOUGH LOW LVL WARM AIRFROM SLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND MAY BRING ABOUT A CHANGE TO RAINAFTER SUNRISE FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ESPECIALLY.CONSIDERING ALL THIS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHTACCUMULATING SNOW OF LESS THAN AN INCH IN GENERAL...FROM SUNRISEINTO THE MID MORNING PARTICULARLY AREAS S OF THE MASS PIKE WITHFLURRIES POSSIBLE INLAND.

 

 

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