40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 On 1/3/2013 at 4:41 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I liked this event a few days ago, but I see some room where it can move northwest some, but at this point it appears to be another near miss. Gulf stream to save the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 On 1/3/2013 at 4:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is this what it has come to? Epic winter inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Euro soundings for this huge event: NYC: .04" BOS: .04" TOL: .04" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Coating is better than nothing especially given what follows it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 On 1/3/2013 at 6:26 PM, litchfieldlibations said: Coating is better than nothing especially given what follows it Definitely agree Joe. P.S. Euro remains cold through hour 144. After that, the warmth unloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 On 1/3/2013 at 6:29 PM, ag3 said: Definitely agree Joe. P.S. Euro remains cold through hour 144. After that, the warmth unloads. Thanks for the 411, pitchers and catchers reporting in a month, I can taste it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 On 1/2/2013 at 6:38 PM, CT Blizz said: Yeah interesting to see models try to tickle something up again for the 6 th. I had a feeing yesterday that would happen. Still a ways to go but if we apply some meteorology to the models it makes sense there could be a 2-4 inch type event Can't fully distinguish models from meteorology since the programming is entirely based on meteorology formulas and concepts. This met vs. mod stuff is borne out of the 1970s and 1980s era when models were primative and mets had to use their experience and instinct to correct for obvious model errors. Now mets aren't even sure when models are in error. Case in point, a big snowstorm maybe last year or the year before when NCEP specifically said to disregard a particular model run because of significant model errors when that run showed a huge snowstorm up and down the coast. Of course that supposedly tainted run turned out to herald in a huge model shift. If you think you could apply some "meteorology" to the models, why couldn't NCEP programmers tweak the programming so that you wouldn't have to make that adjustment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 On 1/3/2013 at 6:37 PM, litchfieldlibations said: Thanks for the 411, pitchers and catchers reporting in a month, I can taste it. Its not terribly warm. Mid to upper 40's, to perhaps low 50's on the coast, for Tuesday-Friday of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2013 Author Share Posted January 3, 2013 One more Euro run and we can plan on 1-2 inches I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 sneaky Scooter cold Sun after noon, Monday Am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 On 1/3/2013 at 8:56 PM, CT Blizz said: One more Euro run and we can plan on 1-2 inches I think We're not there yet. This is not a high QPF scenario so we're probably looking at a coating to an isolated inch. With a SLP to our NW we cannot even count on much fluff factor. Some places will probably record a trace or nothing. This looks a little better for the Lakes and orographic locations. h5 evolution is not very good as modeled right now. And we haven't even had a "weenie" run to suggest anything better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 On 1/3/2013 at 9:29 PM, eduggs said: We're not there yet. This is not a high QPF scenario so we're probably looking at a coating to an isolated inch. With a SLP to our NW we cannot even count on much fluff factor. Some places will probably record a trace or nothing. This looks a little better for the Lakes and orographic locations. h5 evolution is not very good as modeled right now. And we haven't even had a "weenie" run to suggest anything better. In Kevn's world, the weenie run always exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 yay 6 z gfs gives us light snow") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 Well it won't be much, but many folks will see about an inch out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Flurries incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 May God bless the NAM, gfs was much better at 6 z nam now at 12z lets get this trend to continue and get 1-3 out of this mess before the cool up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 NAM NAM NAM NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Nice little snow on Sunday morning per nam. Gonna happen folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 On 1/4/2013 at 2:33 PM, weathafella said: Nice little snow on Sunday morning per nam. Gonna happen folks. based on what? it's wetter than everything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 On 1/4/2013 at 2:40 PM, forkyfork said: based on what? it's wetter than everything else 6Z/12Z guidance increasing this. GFS and now NAM. You watch and you may get a flake or 2 in Joizy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 LOL at the NAM tripling QPF for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 CMC's on the bus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 Well well well wieners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 And GFS is on board for a little snow Sunday morning early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 On 1/4/2013 at 3:03 PM, ETauntonMA said: LOL at the NAM tripling QPF for the area. it shows 1-2" here. no way that happens. i think most will be lucky to get .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 On 1/4/2013 at 3:49 PM, forkyfork said: it shows 1-2" here. no way that happens. i think most will be lucky to get .5" I would not rule out snsh for the general area but it will probably not amount to much. Temps will be in the low 30's across the area. I'd agree with your assessment on amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 FWIW, the NAM generally shows 1" or less based on this Weather Bell graphic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 On 1/4/2013 at 4:06 PM, Quincy said: FWIW, the NAM generally shows 1" or less based on this Weather Bell graphic: NAM.png lol at the weenie stripe near Tolland, up through Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 NAM seems to be on its own. Almost every other model shows under 0.1" liquid equivalent for the event, including the SREFs and GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 On 1/4/2013 at 3:28 PM, CT Blizz said: Well well well wieners On 1/4/2013 at 6:42 PM, Quincy said: NAM seems to be on its own. Almost every other model shows under 0.1" liquid equivalent for the event, including the SREFs and GEFS. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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