NaoPos Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 sexy sexy West coast look medium- long range on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 gfs still showing wintry potential for far nw burbs through pocs. Though, the euro is warmer, so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 euro ens look good, would like to see more of a ridge into alaska, but its not bad. Solid -nao signature to on them, though its east based, which shoves the pv south. A lot of blocking going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 the good news for adam, torch flame is still being deprived of fuel on the model runs after this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 gfs still showing wintry potential for far nw burbs through pocs. Though, the euro is warmer, so take it with a grain of salt. tom, per gfs 6z run for kukt, so this looks like a sleet hit with these cold 850's, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 gfs still showing wintry potential for far nw burbs through pocs. Though, the euro is warmer, so take it with a grain of salt. I think that's prob going to be rain for 95% of us. Looks like a nice track for orh. Euro had a follow up wave just after. Looks to give acy light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 tom, per gfs 6z run for kukt, so this looks like a sleet hit with these cold 850's, correct? The 6z backed off it moreso, but the first initial .3 of qpf is sleet for ukt. On the skew-t you can see the pinching in from about 900mb to about the surface, while the mid levels are torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I think that's prob going to be rain for 95% of us. Looks like a nice track for orh. Euro had a follow up wave just after. Looks to give acy light snow I wouldn't hold my breath on it, but their is some potential of some frozen precip at the bginning with the low level cold air drain, assuming the track remains unchanged or trends south. The euro is actually showing a band of sleet with it to for the burbs up to your area to start off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 euro ens look good, would like to see more of a ridge into alaska, but its not bad. Solid -nao signature to on them, though its east based, which shoves the pv south. A lot of blocking going on. Would support a D10 threat if the midwest trough was more focused in the southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Would support a D10 threat if the midwest trough was more focused in the southern stream You would need that northern stream on the back side to dig south to raise the hgts along the east coast. That map shows storms would get sheered out moving into the region with all that confluence. Though, I'm sure their would be some clippers or pieces of energy rotating around that pv that would give some chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 You would need that northern stream on the back side to dig south to raise the hgts along the east coast. That map shows storms would get sheered out moving into the region with all that confluence. Though, I'm sure their would be some clippers or pieces of energy rotating around that pv that would give some chances. GREEN TAG! congrats buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I wouldn't hold my breath on it, but their is some potential of some frozen precip at the bginning with the low level cold air drain, assuming the track remains unchanged or trends south. The euro is actually showing a band of sleet with it to for the burbs up to your area to start off. Agree with this. Freezing rain an option also particularly N+W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Congrats tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 GREEN TAG! congrats buddy! Congrats tombo thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 You would need that northern stream on the back side to dig south to raise the hgts along the east coast. That map shows storms would get sheered out moving into the region with all that confluence. Though, I'm sure their would be some clippers or pieces of energy rotating around that pv that would give some chances. If you had a stronger southern stream heights would rise off the SE coast. Thats a classic MA snowstorm look minus the Tennesee Valley shortwave. As depicted clippers pass to our N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 GREEN TAG! congrats buddy! Well deserved!! Maybe we can get a bonified snowstorm to test your moderating skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I'll post a few notes today. 1. Still the like the overall change to a more favorable pattern with the main concern being the MJO staying in phase 6. 2. I do see the mix chance mentioned in the comments above. Low level cold air is hard for the models handle and I've seen it work both ways. Should be interesting and should change more over the next few days. 3. Beyond that cold enters the picture but with two separate jet streams. We would need the southern branch to hook up with a clipper in the right location to a get a good snow. Otherwise it's either a light snow from a clipper, phase in the lakes and rain or dry/cold. 4. I guess I'll watch myself now with Tombo as a new moderator ! Just kidding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 thanks guys A green tag, Congrats! If it snowed this winter, would it have been a white tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 12z GFS looks like ice to rain next tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Congrats Tombo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Congrats Tombo! That green looks good on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 thanks guys Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 thanks guys...hopefully it will change our luck and get some winter storms in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 A green tag, Congrats! If it snowed this winter, would it have been a white tag? Could of, but the green suits it since we have seen green grass pretty much all winter so far. might be another fall line on north and west onset of wintry precip for next wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Congrats Tom and well deserved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Could of, but the green suits it since we have seen green grass pretty much all winter so far. might be another fall line on north and west onset of wintry precip for next wednesday. Using more of your Gilbertsville power to draw the storms away from Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Nice Tom, congrats and good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 12z gfs shows about .3-.5 frozen for nw burbs to lehigh valley before the warm air scours it out. Below is the skew t for ukt area. Notice the wedge in the lower levels while the mid levels are warm. This skew t would probably be a snow sleet mix. Abour .25-.3 qpf has fallen so far at this point. Even down to city it starts as frozen ukt hr 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Using more of your Gilbertsville power to draw the storms away from Philly hahaha i just looked at the skew t for the city looks like they would start as frozen to per gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Congrats Tombo well deserved, over the years your knowledge has gotten better and better. I wish i had your patience to learn like you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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