Rainshadow Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yeah, I guess you're right. It's more like -WPO. Either way, the base state has been blerg for snow lovers. I know the next week is going to increase the departures, but up to yesterday ABE was only about half an inch below normal to date with snowfall. Alot worse southeast of the fall line. Surprising if this becomes our fait accompli for this winter, the snowfall part of the Cohen Siberian snow cover had a better correlation locally than temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 What's funny is that the Cohen Siberain snow cover thing worked this year really well (the correlation physically is between snow cover and the phase of the AO because of thermal considerations). It's just -AO hasn't delivered the goods to the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 It really does not look like much will change from NYC-south. Rough year for snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 It really does not look like much will change from NYC-south. Rough year for snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Honestly Adam, it seems things are just not looking good for 95 area. The cold is looking more transient and models backing off on -nao. Am I wrong? Is there something more im missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 the upper-level circulation associated with the MJO contineus progressing eastward with time. Incorporating U200 into RMM is why RMM is capable of detecting MJO-related signals over the Western Hemisphere. The semi-loop that many of the models are suggesting very well may happen in RMM phase 7. However, this doesnt necessarily mean the MJO is weakening.. The development of this oceanic Kelvin wave could throw off some of the extra-tropical circulation signals we commonly acustom with an MJO phase 1-3. Something to keep an eye on. I agree about the "weakening" and the potential noisy conflict on the RMM diagrams. The Pacific Jet is in the process of extending again but this time the East Asian Jet is a little more poleward than December. We also have a substantial h2 westerly anomaly throughout a good bit of the Tropical Latitudes with a La Nina-like upper low near/SE of Hawaii. All I'm suggesting is the h2 setup may somewhat halt the progression eastward causing this to "loop on the RMMs" for a bit before ultimately coming east. The ramifications of something like this is possibly a more turmoil, oscillating jet structure for the CONUS instead of a full blown PNA/cold outbreak that lasts consistently into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Honestly Adam, it seems things are just not looking good for 95 area. The cold is looking more transient and models backing off on -nao. Am I wrong? Is there something more im missing? You mean outside of the discussions in the this thread and on the main board? All of the top contributors are talking about the potential for a wintry period end of January-early February. I don't see why anyone would throw in the towel based on one nights worth of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 You mean outside of the discussions in the this thread and on the main board? All of the top contributors are talking about the potential for a wintry period end of January-early February. I don't see why anyone would throw in the towel based on one nights worth of model runs. I should add, it's not like we've never been wrong before. For example, early December when the MJO crashed and burned and left us with a top 5 December torch. Things could still go wrong. A lot wrong. But most indicators are that we'll see a chance for wintry weather at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Another reason we won't be consistently cold / +PNA from Jan 20-Feb 1 is because of the loss of ozone next week in the NW Territories/Alaska. Yes, there is a stratospheric warming underway with a split vortex scenario. This will get the AO to really nose-dive and initially ignite an east based -NAO. However, the "surf zone" on the western side of the geopotential low anomaly in Canada will strengthen a bit with an enhanced temp gradient. This will cause an ozone loss here; but at the same time, increase the ozone across eastern Canada / North Atlantic. Ultimately, I think this gets us a more west-based type of NAO response in February with a possible significant snow event Feb 5-10. This period fits with the stratosphere and analogs (I know Matt agrees from the DC area). This doesn't mean we won't see cold or even accumulating snow before then. But, I am looking for the significant stuff in our area. I think a lot of these events will target areas north and west of us (philly area) in January. Maybe I'm being too cautious and negative but that's the way I'm leaning for now. If the MJO blasts into phase 8-1-2 with no loop, then I'll be happy to eat crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Another reason we won't be consistently cold / +PNA from Jan 20-Feb 1 is because of the loss of ozone next week in the NW Territories/Alaska. Yes, there is a stratospheric warming underway with a split vortex scenario. This will get the AO to really nose-dive and initially ignite an east based -NAO. However, the "surf zone" on the western side of the geopotential low anomaly in Canada will strengthen a bit with an enhanced temp gradient. This will cause an ozone loss here; but at the same time, increase the ozone across eastern Canada / North Atlantic. Ultimately, I think this gets us a more west-based type of NAO response in February with a possible significant snow event Feb 5-10. This period fits with the stratosphere and analogs (I know Matt agrees from the DC area). This doesn't mean we won't see cold or even accumulating snow before then. But, I am looking for the significant stuff in our area. I think a lot of these events will target areas north and west of us (philly area) in January. Maybe I'm being too cautious and negative but that's the way I'm leaning for now. If the MJO blasts into phase 8-1-2 with no loop, then I'll be happy to eat crow. I brought this up last night in the sne thread. With the gefs and euro ens showing an initial cold dump then trof reasserts itself in west seems like its going in tandem with the mjo heading to phase 7 then looping into phase 6. I wonder if the models would nudge colder if the progression continues right through to phase 8 instead of the loop. The roundy diagram seems more enthusiastic with bringing it to phase 8 than the globals. I know Mike said that the globals are not really the best for MJO predictions, but what method is post day 7. I haven't looked at the east asain mtn torque since yesterday but its still riding pretty neutralish which says to me the pna pattern will have to wait a couple weeks longer and gives more credit to this first cold blast being transient. But what do i know, i work at a golf course and grow grass, you are the met hahaha. Glad to see you posting in here HM your thoughts i Know we all appreciate it as long as Adam and the other mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yeah, I guess you're right. It's more like -WPO. Either way, the base state has been blerg for snow lovers. No question about that last part. I definitely agree that the siberian snow cover did its direct job in disturbing the stratospshere and leading to a general -AO circulation. Where Cohen goes wrong (particularly speaking for this year) is taking the direct temperature correlation too literally, and not considering the Pacific drivers. If I had to pick one thing that is the toughest thing to beat, I'd say it's a poor Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The 12z GFS has trended to the Euro by splitting the western trough and lowering heights in E Canada. This sets up a D9 MA snow threat as the left-behind energy emerges from the SW. Would be even more robust without interference from northern stream feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 No question about that last part. I definitely agree that the siberian snow cover did its direct job in disturbing the stratospshere and leading to a general -AO circulation. Where Cohen goes wrong (particularly speaking for this year) is taking the direct temperature correlation too literally, and not considering the Pacific drivers. If I had to pick one thing that is the toughest thing to beat, I'd say it's a poor Pacific. Totally agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 12z gefs look better compared to yesterday, but it still looks like that pac ridge retrogrades and allows that pv to move back towards nw territories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I brought this up last night in the sne thread. With the gefs and euro ens showing an initial cold dump then trof reasserts itself in west seems like its going in tandem with the mjo heading to phase 7 then looping into phase 6. I wonder if the models would nudge colder if the progression continues right through to phase 8 instead of the loop. The roundy diagram seems more enthusiastic with bringing it to phase 8 than the globals. I know Mike said that the globals are not really the best for MJO predictions, but what method is post day 7. I haven't looked at the east asain mtn torque since yesterday but its still riding pretty neutralish which says to me the pna pattern will have to wait a couple weeks longer and gives more credit to this first cold blast being transient. But what do i know, i work at a golf course and grow grass, you are the met hahaha. Glad to see you posting in here HM your thoughts i Know we all appreciate it as long as Adam and the other mets. Now that the GFS has gone with the MJO curl solution (vs speeding into p8), it has warmed considerably beyond day7. Not saying its right either, but that initial blast on the 18th and the subsequent cold upon cold it had may in reality may have been too fast. I used to remember about a two week lag after crossing the p5/p6 threshold which would fit the 25th or later better. Given what the EC has, even that may be too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 No question about that last part. I definitely agree that the siberian snow cover did its direct job in disturbing the stratospshere and leading to a general -AO circulation. Where Cohen goes wrong (particularly speaking for this year) is taking the direct temperature correlation too literally, and not considering the Pacific drivers. If I had to pick one thing that is the toughest thing to beat, I'd say it's a poor Pacific. The correlation locally between temps and snow with Cohen worked best in el nino regimes, which would normally favor +PDO or at least more of a +PNA. It was pretty much 50/50 with temps in enso neutral and la ninas where as you posted conflicts might occur with the Pacific. Also Jack's NF pool was warm in the antecedent summer and the Atlantic is still not in tripole mode (-NAO east looks more favorable than -NAO west), so there are still ongoing conflicts. I was telling Mitch the surprise for me when this winter is done would be more from paltry snow than the lack of unseasonably cold weather. Again this is just locally here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 12z euro brings the coldest air mass (which isn't saying much) this year so far. Slides a 474 thickness pv just north of Maine. In return which I was telling harbourton yesterday a pattern where the pv that close is a suppressive pattern. The wave around 210hrs gets forced under the pv and slides of the se coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Day ten h5 map looks pretty solid to me with a nice -nao signature though not as robust as yesterday's 12z run and a nice PAC ridge over or just off the west coast almost a positive pna signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Day ten h5 map looks pretty solid to me with a nice -nao signature though not as robust as yesterday's 12z run and a nice PAC ridge over or just off the west coast almost a positive pna signature. Still way out there but the D9 to D12 period has some promise on both the GFS+Euro as heights are lowered in E Can. Simiilar to yesterday's 12z the Euro moves the PV SE through Quebec to the maritimes. That sets up a possible D11 or D12 MA threat with strong 50/50 in place. Today's threat is from a diigging northern stream trough in W US at D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Still way out there but the D9 to D12 period has some promise on both the GFS+Euro as heights are lowered in E Can. Simiilar to yesterday's 12z the Euro moves the PV SE through Quebec to the maritimes. That sets up a possible D11 or D12 MA threat with strong 50/50 in place. Today's threat is from a diigging northern stream trough in W US at D10. yea definitely some potential with that s/w dropping down in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Euro D10 - PV over maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Euro D10 - PV over maritimes. one thing is for sure, thats one of the blockiest maps i have seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 18z gfs shows a sleet fest for the burbs from west chester-wayne-warminster on north and west. Skew t for the wayne area. Their is a nice push of low level cold air shown on the gfs, with a 1028mb nose of high pressure working in from the west. hr 144 hr 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 So by the time we get to Sunday that track for the 15th's system will be through Cleveland instead of a sleetfest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I wouldn't bet on anything wintry before the 18th/19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I wouldn't bet on anything wintry before the 18th/19th. I'm not saying its happening. Merely just stating what it's showing. The euro had a couple past runs showing some frozen potential. Also I'm talking in the nw burbs through Lehigh valley and pocs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfallower Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Another reason we won't be consistently cold / +PNA from Jan 20-Feb 1 is because of the loss of ozone next week in the NW Territories/Alaska. Yes, there is a stratospheric warming underway with a split vortex scenario. This will get the AO to really nose-dive and initially ignite an east based -NAO. However, the "surf zone" on the western side of the geopotential low anomaly in Canada will strengthen a bit with an enhanced temp gradient. This will cause an ozone loss here; but at the same time, increase the ozone across eastern Canada / North Atlantic. Ultimately, I think this gets us a more west-based type of NAO response in February with a possible significant snow event Feb 5-10. This period fits with the stratosphere and analogs (I know Matt agrees from the DC area). This doesn't mean we won't see cold or even accumulating snow before then. But, I am looking for the significant stuff in our area. I think a lot of these events will target areas north and west of us (philly area) in January. Maybe I'm being too cautious and negative but that's the way I'm leaning for now. If the MJO blasts into phase 8-1-2 with no loop, then I'll be happy to eat crow. HM, I was just wondering if you could be more specific where north and west of Philly in January will be. I figure that if you can predict storms over a month in advance with pretty darn good accuracy this should be a piece of cake.(I hope you get a bit of a laugh out of that) Make no mistake your forecasting skill is no laughing matter! I know I appreciate it as do many others on this board.I think Feb will be decent this year and might actually live up to what my Father always said was the snow month. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 0z gfs continues its sleetfest for the far burbs through the lehigh valley and pocs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 0z gfs continues its sleetfest for the far burbs through the lehigh valley and pocs. yes! sleet is like winter armor i love it. But generally the grill shots don't turn out so hot after a sleet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Decent cold shot next week getting closer maybe this time it can actually happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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