ChescoWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Wxsim has snow arriving in the NW PHL burbs by 10pm tonight with 2" by 6am Monday before slowly changing to IP/ZR and then rain. Seems a bit earlier then most forecasts I have seen so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12 nam doesnt warm much for monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GFS suppresses the "bomb" for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GFS suppresses the "bomb" for Sunday. However the individual members are all over the place when it comes to the timing and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 18z GFS really blows up over Virginia and gets some stuff up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 18z GFS really blows up over Virginia and gets some stuff up here. yup the "whopper" and "bomb" is right where we want it seven days out 40" snow winter here we come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Storm next weekend/ early next week cause of a flip to something a good deal warmer, time will tell if the storm comes up the coast. Rising AO from the depths of the abyss ( -6 standard deviations) and a 8,1,2 MJO over the next 10 days. Wish this had come about 2 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Hey I'll take it Mitch as long as we cash in. I think the fact that it is late March that people aren't that excited, but this setup could yield something historic if cards line up. If we had a similar setup showing on the 7 day progs in Dec/jan people would be hyped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Very snowquester like track on the 0z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 delaware valley bullseyed on the 6z gfs day 7, not a good thing happened far too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Pinch me when the Euro doesn't show it suppressed...like it has for the past couple of runs. Raging -AO one of the larger synoptic features against us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 And your daily dose of weather porn is brought to you by none other than the 06z gfs! But really this is a beauty. And I know the amounts are insane, but the last 4 model runs of the gfs have been pretty consistent on a track like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Still no warm-up on EC. 0Z run no spring yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 delaware valley bullseyed on the 6z gfs day 7, not a good thing happened far too soon precip 1.68" for abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The key to the 6z GFS is the faster arrival of the first wave. It gives room for it to amplify before the second wave pushes it out. The ECMWF is much slower with this so it succumbs to the influence of the second wave. I haven't seen the individual ensembles but the ECMWF ensemble mean seemed supportive of the operational's timing overall. Perhaps today's 12z runs will see more agreement with timing. I'm sure there are also other factors not being played enough from the Canadian Sector as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 And your daily dose of weather porn is brought to you by none other than the 06z gfs! But really this is a beauty. And I know the amounts are insane, but the last 4 model runs of the gfs have been pretty consistent on a track like this. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1363605330.484525.jpg lol Another GFS 1958 repeat! It did this once in advance of the 3/6 event when the models were trying to do some super phase. In this case, we don't need a super phase to get a wet snow bomb but we do need proper spacing/timing. As suspected, the first wave is still being suppressed later this week, the second wave is the one to watch for Monday while the new third wave could be a potential kicker (euro). There is no doubt about it that this pattern has serious potential (again). It would only be fitting for the climate period we are in to see a big snowstorm in spring. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Old weather map of 1958. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 12z gfs bringing the snow, 9z mar.25th, precip moving out 15hrs latter. for now big hit VA/WVA. nice run with so many more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 no warm up thru 264hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Could be a period of snow late Wednesday night. Omega and snow growth look soild. Temps cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 no warm up thru 264hr. Really no warm up through 384hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm having flashbacks of March 1997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Old weather map of 1958. March '58 storm was historic here. Old timers talk about the Blue Snow that was so deep and dense that tunnels could be made through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 50" over in Morgantown from that one - just a few miles west of here with that one....I saw photos of helicopter rescues of truckers at the PA Turnpike interchange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 12Z GEFS Trended west since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Per New York forum, 12z Euro goes OTS off Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 ^^it does but nice digging, one to watch. still looks like a cold, for march, run thru 180hr. trough in east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm1965 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 So, no sign of warmer weather at all well into April? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Per New York forum, 12z Euro goes OTS off Carolinas Just like it has for a number of runs in a row now. Confluence just too strong to let it come up the coast with AO as negative as it is. The -AO has to relax a bit for this to have a chance IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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