HM Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 HM, without hyping it, the block as it retrogrades is beginning to look similar to 3/19/58. Though, wouldn't it be something though that after all these cutters in "good patterns" we finally get a LEGIT cold enforcer but it's so strong it squashes the low? LOL... Todays 12z EURO looks like 58esque, except it 58 there was a northern stream disturbance that phased and help to blow up the low.... I think models are going to trick forecasters into thinking the suppressed solution with the first 1 means no storm while the second 1 ends up being the big storm. But, by that point, the cold air may be on the way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The ECMWF bringing out the first piece 3/22 or so is NOT the real deal. The max retogression period with wave timings is closer to 3/25 than 3/22 with a more favorable Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I really wish we had an 11-15 day euro op for days like today...just for viewing pleasure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Big storm is possible with the MJO moving into Phase 8 and the blocking pattern in the North Atlantic.Would be surprised if the overall pattern lends itself to suppress storm at this late juncture.JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I really wish we had an 11-15 day euro op for days like today...just for viewing pleasure The PNA spike is legitimate with the termination of retrogression and tropical pacific. The concern here is if we have too many waves in the southern stream. We also have to consider the possibility that the models today are way too amplified with the suppressive PV. A lot of possible scenarios at this point. What is certainly eye-opening is the amount of cold air embedded into the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Big storm is possible with the MJO moving into Phase 8 and the blocking pattern in the North Atlantic.Would be surprised if the overall pattern lends itself to suppress storm at this late juncture.JMO I know what you mean but we have had instances where the waves trying to interact with the departing PV led to an out to sea track. For now, I'm favoring something more amplified but I do realize scenarios like 2006 are just as possible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I know what you mean but we have had instances where the waves trying to interact with the departing PV led to an out to sea track. For now, I'm favoring something more amplified but I do realize scenarios like 2006 are just as possible at this point. Just when you think the spring pattern will be dull and mundane this happens -thanks for the reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I just finally saw the day 10 ECMWF and that's just awesome wx porn. The southern cyclogenesis near the Yucatan that moves northward to interact with a northern wave that drops down the PNA sliding board is nothing short of porn folks. Day 11 would be pretty freakin' sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I just finally saw the day 10 ECMWF and that's just awesome wx porn. The southern cyclogenesis near the Yucatan that moves northward to interact with a northern wave that drops down the PNA sliding board is nothing short of porn folks. Day 11 would be pretty freakin' sweet. WOW, Just saw that too...man 2013 March has the "potential" to be one to remember for a long time...pretty please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 March 25th! WTH?! lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 yup keeps your eyes open for the entire period between the 22nd and 28th..it isnt do or die next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 ^ that looks like a mid winter big hit brewing not end of March. White Easter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I just finally saw the day 10 ECMWF and that's just awesome wx porn. The southern cyclogenesis near the Yucatan that moves northward to interact with a northern wave that drops down the PNA sliding board is nothing short of porn folks. Day 11 would be pretty freakin' sweet. That one might make more sense then the one before it due to the weakening block, favorable pacific, and the ULL retreating into the 50/50 position. All of these allowing for major amplification over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 yup keeps your eyes open for the entire period between the 22nd and 28th..it isnt do or die next weekend Write this one off... I could actually come home for it, so it won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Write this one off... I could actually come home for it, so it won't happen You know what I love about you, even as a pro met you are one of the biggest snow weenies around . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 18z gfs whopper day 7 and the kiss of death to be near bullseye at day 7 this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 18z gfs whopper day 7 and the kiss of death to be near bullseye at day 7 this winter At best its 3-6 inches.... certainly not a "whopper" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 At best its 3-6 inches.... certainly not a "whopper" this winter/ last winter thats close to a KU relatively speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Euro for the day 7 "whopper" is suppressed down into the Carolinas. Let's just put this horse of a winter behind the barn and put it out of its misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Its one run....I'd rather it be suppressed than showing a HECS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 The ULL is killing us here. It has been for the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Its so annoying that we get a good pattern now the ULL might crush and shortwave. I'm not giving up though March patterns are always chaotic on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 12z euro, next week is close, very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ2 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Euro for the day 7 "whopper" is suppressed down into the Carolinas. Let's just put this horse of a winter behind the barn and put it out of its misery. Is that still the situation on today's noon EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Is that still the situation on today's noon EURO? Yes. There is another system, though, which passes just to the south on Wednesday night, grazing the area with light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 0Z EC has a threat coming up the coast at 240... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GEFS at 0Z is getting closer at 192hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 0Z EC has a threat coming up the coast at 240... looks nice, HM storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 looks nice, HM storm? No...BS storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Intteresting to reflect - KPHL has recorded a trace of snow 20 of the last 44 days. That's pretty remarkable. The trend, obviously, is for lots of small events rather than a large one. My obvious question is- what is changing in the pattern that would suggest synoptic changes away from numerous small events to a big one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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