Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Looking at 0z ECMWF Deterministic text for AVP, total precip is 1.22" . I'm no expert but looks like it starts as snow then temp becomes an issue, .54" rain ? Elevation I'm guessing will help so maybe wet snow / rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Monday looks like another low level temperature issue, this is going to have a good amount of warm air ahead of the system and then it might get some cold air on the back side to change things over to snow. My best guess is for SE PA it's a rain to snow/mix with the best chance of accumulations being in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Looking at 0z ECMWF Deterministic text for AVP, total precip is 1.22" . I'm no expert but looks like it starts as snow then temp becomes an issue, .54" rain ? Elevation I'm guessing will help so maybe wet snow / rain? According to what's in front of me, 850's rise to 1.0C by 6Z Tuesday, by which time 0.41" has fallen at AVP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Monday looks like another low level temperature issue, this is going to have a good amount of warm air ahead of the system and then it might get some cold air on the back side to change things over to snow. My best guess is for SE PA it's a rain to snow/mix with the best chance of accumulations being in the Poconos. If the GFS, EC, or some blend thereof is correct, I suspect any mixing at the end would be insignificant. Its difficult to get a change back to snow on the back side of these systems in general, and the modeling suggests that any wraparound would be very light snow showers/flurries. Like you said, best chance of accum in the Pocs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Yeah I agree. Guess I should have put flurries instead of changing to snow. If the GFS, EC, or some blend thereof is correct, I suspect any mixing at the end would be insignificant. Its difficult to get a change back to snow on the back side of these systems in general, and the modeling suggests that any wraparound would be very light snow showers/flurries. Like you said, best chance of accum in the Pocs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Two days ago it showed that then yesterdays 0z it cut it in half 6" for Abe according to 00z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 6" for Abe according to 00z euro That sounds like an overdone computer algorithm. The raw data has 0.23" by 0Z Tuesday. Another 0.35" by 6Z... BUT... by then 850's soar to +3C. So, maybe 0.17-0.24" of that is snow. I'd guess more like 4-5" snow, at best, at ABE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 GFS indicating an ever so brief start as snow next week and looks plain bad in the long range with regards to storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 12z euro also shows snow for Saturday, 18Z 0 line at cape may, 32 surface around abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 12z Euro, 108hr snow for parts of the area, 32 surface at abe, 0 line at DL/PA border . hr 114 warm, 32 and 0 line up around scranton NE ski areas happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 The problem is the block in the long range is about as useful as the eagles defense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Come on, HM. The GFS is garbage in SNE, so we should just throw it out. It snowed in southern new England last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 The problem is the block in the long range is about as useful as the eagles defense After their strong defensive signings over the past few days, I wouldn't make that analogy unless you are referencing last year Seems like the Canadian is most bullish with this one, both with the Saturday clipper AND the front-end thump on Monday before the torchy rain that follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 The Euro ensemble at 12z is giving Morch a big kick in the a$$. Kudos to the Euro weeklies that Adam said was a -Nao forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 crappy spring forever and ever...greenups in late April FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 0z euro 240hr, 540 line into gulf, crazy. pollen season on hold. very active 144hr to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 0z euro 240hr, 540 line into gulf, crazy. pollen season on hold. very active 144hr to the south. That's remarkable. I don't know if many here know what an "onion snow" is but there seems to be a higher chance of one this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I'm delighted with this pattern. Perhaps it's mere opinion grounded in little truth, but I believe the last few years have jumped too rapidly into spring & summer weather. I'd rather hold onto some chilly weather for awhile instead of hitting 80 degrees in March and watching it approach 90 in mid-April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Sooo would anybody like to talk about the ridiculously below normal pattern we have in store the rest of this month, and the threat of a KU event after the equinox? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Sooo would anybody like to talk about the ridiculously below normal pattern we have in store the rest of this month, and the threat of a KU event after the equinox? We're all over it in the MA subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Without getting too banterish, but this weather sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 need a mod to clean up this mod mess 12Z GFS snow to rain monday. 12z GFS extended takes 0 line in central FL. active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I am somewhat interested in the gfs storm show out towards day 7-8 as this is the first time it has gone away from the cutter idea in the long range. It has been somewhat more consistent in the 7-10 day range then the ecm with all it's fantasy snowstorms it's been cranking there this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 All retrograding block periods usually see a modification of the cold air source that gets cut off over SE Canada. This is especially true during March. But, despite the calendar, there is a pretty decent supply of it under the block still being modeled for later next week. The source looks to cut off around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week from western Canada, but the modified pool of Arctic Air settles into the northern CONUS/SE Canada. That's pretty nutty for this time of year, but not unprecedented by any means. The last time this happened was in 2006 during the same general time frame. That year featured a "near-miss" and generally boring weather for Philadelphia: 18 56 30 0 0 0 19 49 34 0 0 0 20 48 28 0 0 0 21 48 32 0 0 0 22 48 40 0 0 0 23 55 36 0 0 0 24 56 42 0 0 0 25 50 38 0.3 0 0 26 54 38 0.01 0 0 27 62 47 0 0 0 28 60 44 0 0 0 29 68 44 0 0 0 30 72 52 0 0 0 31 78 60 T 0 0 Will we miss again or is it possible we can pull off something like 1958? The key to this threat will be the way in which the waves from the West pull out. A simple, amplified wave that allows an easier interaction with the northern stream/dislodged PV over the Midwest would likely lead to a Miller A or hybrid A/B. If the flow comes in amplified but with several waves, interaction would likely be more difficult and probably lead to a near-miss. If the waves are weak, then it will also likely lead to a seaward track/weak system. The Tropical Pacific this year seems more favorable to me than 2006 and more prone to producing a beefier southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Also should mention that we are still in a retrograding NH anomaly pattern through 3/25 before possibly switching to progressive thereafter. This is always a time to watch for big storms. At the moment, the modeling has two distinct southern waves that come out and try to interact with the northern stream...both of which kind of fail. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Some other mid to late March data to consider is 1980 and 1984. The mid-March 1980 event (3/13-14) seems to have some resemblance to the modeling. The one at the very end of March 1980 seems too warm / spring-like for this set up. A March 28-29, 1984 scenario is very possible with proper phasing. The way that system manifested has pretty good similarities to the large scale flow as this year. There was a lot of other events and even coastal storms earlier in that month, but the evolution in early-mid March 84' doesn't seem quite right. March 1980 and 1984 also have a more comparable Pacific than 2006. 3/28-3/29 1984 and 3/14-3/15 1980 were pretty juicy storms in Philadelphia (1-2" of rain) with some snow (0.6" and 3.6" respectively): 3 27 1984 52 30 10 0 3 28 1984 40 36 123 -1 3 29 1984 37 33 82 6 3 30 1984 43 35 0 0 3 31 1984 50 33 0 0 3 12 1980 36 24 0 0 3 13 1980 34 29 133 28 3 14 1980 39 34 23 8 3 15 1980 44 32 0 0 3 16 1980 49 31 0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 HM, without hyping it, the block as it retrogrades is beginning to look similar to 3/19/58. Though, wouldn't it be something though that after all these cutters in "good patterns" we finally get a LEGIT cold enforcer but it's so strong it squashes the low? LOL... Todays 12z EURO looks like 58esque, except it 58 there was a northern stream disturbance that phased and help to blow up the low.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 12z Euro still brings little snow ? to heavy rain mon/tues. Another cold (cold for March avg.) run. Very active in the south thurs / fri next week. Snow for the south? Low off NC coast at 174hr sliding OTS. Looks like a mid winter pattern run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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