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Medium Range-Long Range thread


NaoPos

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my euro snow maps show for the first one is mainly snow from central montco and bucks and northern chester co on north. Shows a 6-10 inch snowfall. The 2nd storm gets the i95 corridor with 2 plus inches and adds another 2-4 in the nw burbs...

I'm sorry Tom, what were the estimated dates for these potentials? Thanks.

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IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN. LV HAS BEEN BURNED TOO MANY TIMES IN 3 YEARS------ THE RULE OF 3 APPLIES-- WHEN 3 MODELS AGREE IN 3 DAYS OF THE MODELED STORM EVENT ---ITS AN EXACT SCIENCE MAN

 

I just saw it and I don't buy the euro snow with the low pressure in the lakes. All that from over running in second half of march? The ensembles are milder

 

Boston look out though two more feet

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I liking the chance for some light snow in the Poconos this Friday night into Saturday. While not much is expected it would certainly make my skiers stoked to wrap the local season with some fresh snow on the ground in the AM.

As for next week...hard to get excited at this point. I know what march storms can do especially for NEPA region, but it's hard to buy into anything yet. As a side note I did find it rather hilarious to see TWC showing GFS, Euro loops, ensembles and spaghetti plots.

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lol

Next week, like in early Feb, relies on a PV revolution along side of a developing blocking ridge. We are going to see numerous changes in its evolution. But, we won't have split flow like we did in Feb.

When does the +PNA come back?

I was wrong here. The models clearly have moved in the direction of returning the STJ 3/20-3/24 and the modeled height field reminds me of 2/5-10 again. It is quite possible the models are once again not transferring out the southern wave properly, hooking it all back into the western trough. I'm becoming increasingly interested in this period but the time of year has me more unconfident in the outcome (for example, the ultimate outcome may end up being rain anyway from a storm not yet modeled for that period).

So I know the focus will be on the waves before this period for the possibility of snow but I'm looking for a nor'easter potential.

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12z euro brings in the snow 12z mon (120hr.) for area, yeah i'm still on the band wagon for now.

 

still snowing at 126hr, 132hr.

 

then comes the rain.

 

Looks like the temperatures from 120-132 are a mirror of 00z run, precip amounts may have backed off a tad, but still snow in the same areas depicted from last night.  Timing is going to play a huge role here if that wave does in fact come that far north.

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I was wrong here. The models clearly have moved in the direction of returning the STJ 3/20-3/24 and the modeled height field reminds me of 2/5-10 again. It is quite possible the models are once again not transferring out the southern wave properly, hooking it all back into the western trough. I'm becoming increasingly interested in this period but the time of year has me more unconfident in the outcome (for example, the ultimate outcome may end up being rain anyway from a storm not yet modeled for that period).

So I know the focus will be on the waves before this period for the possibility of snow but I'm looking for a nor'easter potential.

low forming along gulf coast at 198hr on 12z euro, HM storm?

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yeah pattern looks interesting on tail end of the run.

our head master might be on to something here ;)

 

Pretty awesome setup..If this run is right we get an arctic blast with temps struggling to get above freezing followed by a storm train as the blocking goes nuts up north. The period from the 20th-30th looks very interesting for a late season snowstorm :)

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To reiterate what HM is talking about, big time threat it appears in the days following the equinox. Let's hope the air mass is good enough by then.

 

Turns out next week was a but of a faux coastal threat, but some overrunning mixed precip with that brutally cold air mass to the north is still reasonable possibility

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on my euro snowfall maps...its basically a fall line on north and west ordeal. Phl gets less than an inch...from eastern chester,central montco and bucks on south and east its 1-3. western chester and northern parts of montco and bucks its 3-4...reading to lehigh valley is 3-6, with the 6 being around abe.

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on my euro snowfall maps...its basically a fall line on north and west ordeal. Phl gets less than an inch...from eastern chester,central montco and bucks on south and east its 1-3. western chester and northern parts of montco and bucks its 3-4...reading to lehigh valley is 3-6, with the 6 being around abe.

you have begin and end times for that snow in the LV Tom? I'm assuming the snow extends back through MDT as well.
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