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Medium Range-Long Range thread


NaoPos

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While there are 3 different systems on the OP GFS in the medium range with okay temperatures, their light nature isn't going to cut it (outside of elevations). This NAO blocking has turned into a slower-omega styled type of blocking while we are still in the process of retrograding hemispheric g.p.h. anomalies. Omega-styled blocking patterns can still produce wintry weather but they are not as conducive for significant snowstorms for us, esp. this time of year. They can still deliver for the interior and New England.

We'll see what the 12z ECMWF/ensembles show but I thought the 00z EC ensembles were looking progressively +EPO/-NAO (more so than the op). This would keep the cool anomalies near the two coastal fourths and leave the middle two fourths warmer. It seems like the W. PAC convection is keeping the PNA sector negative through the foreseeable future. Does this mean we abandon the idea of a significant nor'easter yet sometime next week? No...though the chances are certainly not as good now that the blocking has changed structure.

Was that -30c h85 temps I saw on the GFS in Canada coming up?!?!

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Come on, HM. The GFS is garbage in SNE, so we should just throw it out.

 

lol

Next week, like in early Feb, relies on a PV revolution along side of a developing blocking ridge. We are going to see numerous changes in its evolution. But, we won't have split flow like we did in Feb.

When does the +PNA come back?

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April 1?

 

AprilPhase2500mb.gif

 

Really tricky forecast over the next 60 days with the tropical forcing and where we are heading ENSO wise. If we stay in the phase 8-1-2-3-4 octants in terms of broad-scale tropical forcing, April will see generally cool weather / western ridging.

Then throw in the date of the final warming. It seems destined to be late again, but when? Will it even matter?

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