snowwors2 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Thanks Head Master "Very" Old Man Winter made a nice effort with Friday's surprise....it appears that perhaps he's a bit nervous after being expelled on Thursday and learning of his fate being in HM's hands moving forward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 day 7-10 continue to look cold on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 day 9-10 lolbomb on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakmsg Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 My earliest weather memories were of the late Jim O'Brien giving the forecast on Philly's ABC station (it was an Accuweather forecast at that point, though I am not sure when they signed on). Dr Francis Davis. The man who turned me on to weather... Which makes me old... And my sig pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 10, 2013 Author Share Posted March 10, 2013 day 9-10 lolbomb on the 12z Euro. And the ensembles. Both pretty ballsy with a solid block/ PNA spike , -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 day 9-10 lolbomb on the 12z Euro. East wind of death means rain for I-95, verbatim, again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 East wind of death means rain for I-95, verbatim, again Not sure how accurate the euro snow maps are but it has 6-12 for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Not sure how accurate the euro snow maps are but it has 6-12 for the region. StormVista I'm guessing? The cutoff line is probably right at I-95. SE of there nada, NW of there another sharp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 StormVista I'm guessing? The cutoff line is probably right at I-95. SE of there nada, NE of there another sharp gradient. No some other map I saw posted on fb. I think it was accuweather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Ray you're such a buzzkiller lol, of course it has East winds because it closes off the low ridiculously south...That isn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Day 10 EC is about as reliable as the Day 10 GFS, maybe even a bit less so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Of course, I say that and the new EC has it, even better, colder, snowier... if that happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Of course, I say that and the new EC has it, even better, colder, snowier... if that happens... I simply remember March 1st was supposed to be a big bomb on the Euro in the fantasy range and it ended up being 44 and breezy. In a sense, the Euro did bomb alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Of course, I say that and the new EC has it, even better, colder, snowier... if that happens... wow, buried. can't believe we have a new bomb to track again, long 7 days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 my snow maps from the euro show actually up to an inch of snow on thursday, then over 20 inches for the end of the world storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 wow, buried. can't believe we have a new bomb to track again, long 7 days ahead. And here I thought I could relax for the rest of the winter, knowing I was unlikely to encounter a situation where I'd truly be envious of you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Rain to some snow it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Rain to some snow it looks like. For S NJ perhaps. For I-95 on N and W its mainly snow. A lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 I was in the bulleye on the euro 5.5 days out last week and we saw what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 from twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 11, 2013 Author Share Posted March 11, 2013 Adam, or someone else. I see the MJO looks to be heading into Phase 7. Wa slooking up composites on the CPC site. Wasnt sure if i should use JFM, FMA, or MAM? all 3 have a different look to them. lol. Also, the ECM ENS have something in that time frame. AT this point, dont worry about rain/snow/temps/location. But the Euro is sniffing out something, along with the ensembles. THere seems to be a decent PNA spike and a solid block (west based & associated 50-50 low to be in play) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 At this point, I'd use the raleighwx MJO H5 composites. With it being a time of year where wavelengths are changing, the 3 month composites don't do much for me. Re: the euro threat, obviously concerned about cold air sources again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 At this point, I'd use the raleighwx MJO H5 composites. With it being a time of year where wavelengths are changing, the 3 month composites don't do much for me. Re: the euro threat, obviously concerned about cold air sources again. #climo Lol though I'd argue that the airmass being modeled is light years better than anything we had to work with last week, but the point stands we are talking late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 #climo Lol though I'd argue that the airmass being modeled is light years better than anything we had to work with last week, but the point stands we are talking late March. Danger, Will Robinson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 #climo Lol though I'd argue that the airmass being modeled is light years better than anything we had to work with last week, but the point stands we are talking late March. Danger, Will Robinson I think what he was getting at is the source region more than anything. In the last event, the source region wasn't really any colder than the Northeast, overall. In this setup, yes, warm air is a big issue because of the time of year. But, there is at least a respectable cold air source in Canada, pooling under some pretty good blocking. My "worry" is a faster evacuation of the cold into western Canada and this trends toward a very similar type of blocking setup to last week's event. This is where the Tropical Pacific comes in to help hedge I guess. I think my main concern, once again, is what happens at the shore. Unfortunately, we have at least another nor'easter or two to go before we move out of the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 I think what he was getting at is the source region more than anything. In the last event, the source region wasn't really any colder than the Northeast, overall. In this setup, yes, warm air is a big issue because of the time of year. But, there is at least a respectable cold air source in Canada, pooling under some pretty good blocking. My "worry" is a faster evacuation of the cold into western Canada and this trends toward a very similar type of blocking setup to last week's event. This is where the Tropical Pacific comes in to help hedge I guess. I think my main concern, once again, is what happens at the shore. Unfortunately, we have at least another nor'easter or two to go before we move out of the cold season. I'm with you on the nor'easters. I was just pointing out that it wouldn't take a whole lot of Qdot error in the models to modify that airmass a lot more than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 I'm with you on the nor'easters. I was just pointing out that it wouldn't take a whole lot of Qdot error in the models to modify that airmass a lot more than modeled. This almost looks like where the Euro was in fcst time with the previous system when it initially overphased and then eventually went into too much suppression mode. Not promoting a 1012 low as the go to solution, though would like to see if this sticks within 144 hours before worrying about the shore again. Wonder where the fall line is on Andy's snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 12z gfs, overrunning precip starts monday, lake cutter to boston by wednesday. time for gfs to play catch-up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 I'm with you on the nor'easters. I was just pointing out that it wouldn't take a whole lot of Qdot error in the models to modify that airmass a lot more than modeled. I think what he was getting at is the source region more than anything. In the last event, the source region wasn't really any colder than the Northeast, overall. In this setup, yes, warm air is a big issue because of the time of year. But, there is at least a respectable cold air source in Canada, pooling under some pretty good blocking. My "worry" is a faster evacuation of the cold into western Canada and this trends toward a very similar type of blocking setup to last week's event. This is where the Tropical Pacific comes in to help hedge I guess. I think my main concern, once again, is what happens at the shore. Unfortunately, we have at least another nor'easter or two to go before we move out of the cold season. Certainly all true. Plenty of time for anything to happen really. At least there is a very reasonable *chance* for a more respectable air mass to be in play, more so than last week. I mean, could it really get any more stale than last week's garbage air mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Cutting way west on the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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