Rainshadow Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 One thing that worries me which i see some of the models doing is how stubborn that pac ridge is moving eastward. It seems like it will come east to a point then backs off. Thats going to be the true factor that needs to be watched for wintry weather. I think that is the major feature and would trump a -nao. If the nao was negative enough it would trump it, reason 2009-2010 winter just laughed at the strong el nino. The SSTA in the Pacific (neg pdo) supports the more westward ridge and we really dont have the tripole set-up to support a negative nao in the Atlantic. The analogs we used supported a back end (feb & mar) winter, so far its been going somewhat "according to plan". Thought December was going to be the warmest of the three months relative to normal (not that warm) and although I don't include March in the afd, it was the coldest. NAEFS continues to slowly edge the warmer percentages offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 This is very 88-89ish right now so far, certainly did not get the cold in December that 1988 had but the cold air just buried into the West/Central US in late January 89 and never really came East, it did in pieces at times but everything from timing and storm track for Feb/March just worked out miserably for the East Coast minus the Mid-Atlantic areas. Yepper, FEB & early MAR 1989 were killer whiffs for Philly, FEB 24th was supposed to be a real nice hit however nobody but the immediate S.J. coast made out on that storm & man they got crushed - 20"+ common from Cape May to A.C. while we got flurries. I think Norfolk, VA ended up with over 2' for that month... On rain changing to snow storm on the 6th & 7th of MAR was supposed to dump 6-10" but we ended up with long duration snow event that only amounted to 2.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Wow! the Euro really backed off the negative NAO idea between 0Z and 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Just a quick question about SST anomalies and how they factor in. Noticed this hot spot off of Nova Scotia that stands out like sore thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 GFS says a run @ 70 next sunday is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 GFS says a run @ 70 next sunday is possible. I would not mind if the GFS happened exactly. Beach day sunday followed by cold weather for the Adirondacks the following weekend when I'm up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 GFS says a run @ 70 next sunday is possible. Well if it ain't gonna snow I want it to be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro ensemble modeling really wants to slap Germany and perhaps the UK with cold in 7-10 days...we here in the US get colder after this weekend and early next week's warmth but nothing on the level of JB hype, even in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro ensemble modeling really wants to slap Germany and perhaps the UK with cold in 7-10 days...we here in the US get colder after this weekend and early next week's warmth but nothing on the level of JB hype, even in the Plains. good thing you don't need bitter cold for snow, you just need cold enough. To me this just doesn't look like a prolonged cold after this warmth. I can see a week of cold but it looks like it transitions right back over to a back and forth pattern with warmth and cold, at least how it looks now to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Just a quick question about SST anomalies and how they factor in. Noticed this hot spot off of Nova Scotia that stands out like sore thumb. You really want to have the western half of the mid latitudes in the Atlantic to have colder than average ssta. This would reduce the thermal gradient for the polar jet and thus be favorable for a weaker (lower) nao. The late Jack Ordille ( ) was big on this NF pool for NAO outlooks based on some papers that were published. It was the May-July SSTA which were hugely positive last year = +NAO for ensuing winter. This is in conflict (which is ok from a learning curve) with Dr. Cohen's Siberian October snow cover. In truth its a clementine vs orange comparison because one correlation is with the NAO, the other the AO, although they usually are the same sign. Apologies for the rambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 good thing you don't need bitter cold for snow, you just need cold enough. To me this just doesn't look like a prolonged cold after this warmth. I can see a week of cold but it looks like it transitions right back over to a back and forth pattern with warmth and cold, at least how it looks now to me. Bitter cold and no snow is about as useful as..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 You really want to have the western half of the mid latitudes in the Atlantic to have colder than average ssta. This would reduce the thermal gradient for the polar jet and thus be favorable for a weaker (lower) nao. The late Jack Ordille ( ) was big on this NF pool for NAO outlooks based on some papers that were published. It was the May-July SSTA which were hugely positive last year = +NAO for ensuing winter. This is in conflict (which is ok from a learning curve) with Dr. Cohen's Siberian October snow cover. In truth its a clementine vs orange comparison because one correlation is with the NAO, the other the AO, although they usually are the same sign. Apologies for the rambling. Thanks for the info. I thought I remembered discussions in the past about warm pools to the SW of Greenland affecting the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Bitter cold and no snow is about as useful as..... Something I know all about, especially after the last week or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Something I know all about, especially after the last week or so... I can't believe that I now regularly check the weather in Elko, Nevada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Anyone concerned MJO may die in phase 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Anyone concerned MJO may die in phase 7? thats phase 7 for january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Thanks, so we look ok in 7, hopefully we make it then. Of course there's more to this than I understand too. thats phase 7 for january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Thanks, so we look ok in 7, hopefully we make it then. Of course there's more to this than I understand too. for cold weather each month has different phases that mean it. For instance in the fall phase 7 is a warm phase but january its not. For east coast snow storms phase 8-1 are best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Phl might crack 70 on Sunday per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 EURO keeps delaying the cold, hopefully we can turn it around in Feb cause Jan looks abysmal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 EURO keeps delaying the cold, hopefully we can turn it around in Dec cause rest of winter looks abysmal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 overall it looks at least normal to slightly below with temps starting mid-next week - if you like cold you should be pleased with where this pattern is going EURO keeps delaying the cold, hopefully we can turn it around in Feb cause Jan looks abysmal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 12z Euro for PTW - looks like a bounce up by 17th probably with a cutter but cold would follow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 12z Euro for PTW - looks like a bounce up by 17th probably with a cutter but cold would follow.... i don't know how accurate that is or maybe mine isn't accurate because my 2m temps for hr 240 are no where near that. Or maybe I'm just not reading it correctly. I thought the solid line were the euro ens mean and the other is the operational/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 EURO keeps delaying the cold, hopefully we can turn it around in Feb cause Jan looks abysmal First off, its not really getting delayed, the euro and the gfs were to quick. The gefs have held with a change around the 18/20. 2nd, don't expect any substantial cold until that pac ridge moves east. 3rd. The euro has 2 winter threats post 180 hrs solely for the interior like the nw burbs on north and west. One is a swfe where the city may see something very brief. The other is more of an rdg to abe north look with another swfe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 First off, its not really getting delayed, i the euro and the gfs were to quick. The gefs have held with a change around the 18/20. 2nd, don't expect any substantial cold until that pac ridge moves east. 3rd. The euro has 2 winter threats post 180 hrs solely for the interior like the nw burbs on north and west. One is a swfe where the city may see something very brief. The other is more of an rdg to be north look with another swfe Looks to be the end of December all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Looks to be the end of December all over again Except, canada is very cold now and you have a -epo. Issue is like i stated up top the pac ridge is just hair to far west so we have to deal with the se ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Except, canada is very cold now and you have a -epo. Issue is like i stated up top the pac ridge is just hair to far west so we have to deal with the se ridge. I think it's concerning for the 95 area how the euro has lost all signs for a neg nao. Not excited at all for this area. Sure you might cash in, but 95 looks more of the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 weeklies still are good for week 3 and 4. ridging into greenland and somewhat of a +pna per scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 EC ENS shifts the trough to eastern canada after 1/18. Not super cold but no run at 70.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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