Medium Range-Long Range thread

[am19psu]

So assuming we continue to loop around it should be at least normal precip wise. Are there any charts that illustrate precip correlated with the mjo?

I have Dynacast from MDA for work, which is expensive.

[tombo82685]

I have Dynacast from MDA for work, which is expensive.

Yea that's not gonna happen. I'll just break into your work and look at them on lunch breaks. I was down there today at gateway shopping center, heck of a lot warmer down there lol. I can understand why you aren't pushing 18 like up here for annual snow.

[HM]

CPC has made seasonal precipitation composites:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/

But keep that in mind (the word seasonal) when trying to assess some week in the spring.

[tombo82685]

CPC has made seasonal precipitation composites:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/

But keep that in mind (the word seasonal) when trying to assess some week in the spring.

Thanks, that is awesome, bookmarked.

[am19psu]

Yea that's not gonna happen. I'll just break into your work and look at them on lunch breaks. I was down there today at gateway shopping center, heck of a lot warmer down there lol. I can understand why you aren't pushing 18 like up here for annual snow.

[JamieOber]

Hm or Adam. Any thought on what spring may hold or what to look for? In terms of temperatures and moisture. In the golf course business, it's nice coming out of spring with normal to a little above normal so the plants aren't stressed already going into summer.

I got asked Saturday at an orchard store up here if I had heard anything about spring temps/precip, especially for March. Last year's Morch was a complete disaster for growers up here since we had that cold period in April. Do you have any handle on what March will be like in the East? 

[cast4]

Yea that's not gonna happen. I'll just break into your work and look at them on lunch breaks. I was down there today at gateway shopping center, heck of a lot warmer down there lol. I can understand why you aren't pushing 18 like up here for annual snow.

Now you see what us Chesterbrook coastal plainers have to live with,lol.

[Bobby EPAWA]

No reason to suspect this MJO wave will dampen over the IO. Think at least Feb 21- Feb 23rd - Mar 8 is warm. We'll have to see from there. My crystal ball doesn't usually extend beyond a month. Stupid crystal ball.

 

In response to the big storm past truncation on the 12z GFS (22nd) ... fixed... lol... joking  

[Mitchell Gaines]

Updated weeklies show back and forth through Feb then warm in March.

[am19psu]

In the MOrch thread, HM was discussing the chances for a prolonged winter pattern into early March. I disagree.

 

1. We have a descending cold anomaly in the polar stratosphere

2. An MJO wave moving into Phases 4-5-6

3. Little in the way of mountain torques or other disturbances to the GWO

 

I believe we still have 7-10 days of winter storminess to contend with, but after that period, I expect both the Pacific and the Atlantic to flatten out. If this is accompanied by a -PNA, we could even have a run at some really warm temperatures here.

 

/shots fired at HM

[famartin]

At this point I just need to be like Wayne and Garth, start bowing down and screaming "I'm not worthy! I'm not worthy" when in HM and Adam's presence.

[HM]

 

In the MOrch thread, HM was discussing the chances for a prolonged winter pattern into early March. I disagree.

 

1. We have a descending cold anomaly in the polar stratosphere

2. An MJO wave moving into Phases 4-5-6

3. Little in the way of mountain torques or other disturbances to the GWO

 

I believe we still have 7-10 days of winter storminess to contend with, but after that period, I expect both the Pacific and the Atlantic to flatten out. If this is accompanied by a -PNA, we could even have a run at some really warm temperatures here.

 

/shots fired at HM

Let the games begin, even though I don't think we are that different actually (my statement was in regards to snow). The statement you are talking about is this one:

"The way the AO/NAO are behaving, I wonder if we continue the snow potential into early March, despite the increasingly bad Pacific. Then maybe the bad Pacific/warmth finally sets in full force mid-March before maybe a cool shot or something just after equinox with 1 last shot of the white stuff."

We are in 100% agreement about the Pacific Pattern/warmth and what that means in general for the CONUS. But instead of a boring / very warm start with no snow, I am suggesting more of an above normal start with a few lower-end snow threats/cool shots. I don't think we continue a great cold, snowy pattern or anything.

1. The strengthening cold anomaly in the mid-upper stratosphere is duly noted but the 100-50mb layer looks to still have a residual ozone pool in the N. Atlantic/pole. Some evidence suggests that the PV at these layers will stay closer to Siberia, allowing ozone to be fluxed into this region. Ultimately, it breaks down, but how fast? We know a general NAM state can last 40 to as much as 60 days after first warming. This doesn't help us out, haha.

2. The MJO remains a mess but we've handled it well so far. I cannot argue that other than to say, it is possible we don't see a coherent MJO wave plow into phase 5-6-7...maybe not quite as incoherent as December but not exactly a clean propagation.

[am19psu]

^^^Thanks for clarifying. We're only a few degrees apart after all.

[HM]

No problem, sorry about the confusion. I agree that at some point next month, a pretty substantial warm surge will be on the way once the strat let's out its final breath.

Perhaps more nino-like forcing to revisit near/just after astronomical spring with 1 last cool shot.

[Mike.Ventrice]

In the MOrch thread, HM was discussing the chances for a prolonged winter pattern into early March. I disagree.

 

1. We have a descending cold anomaly in the polar stratosphere

2. An MJO wave moving into Phases 4-5-6

3. Little in the way of mountain torques or other disturbances to the GWO

 

I believe we still have 7-10 days of winter storminess to contend with, but after that period, I expect both the Pacific and the Atlantic to flatten out. If this is accompanied by a -PNA, we could even have a run at some really warm temperatures here.

 

/shots fired at HM

 

 

 

Let the games begin, even though I don't think we are that different actually (my statement was in regards to snow). The statement you are talking about is this one:

"The way the AO/NAO are behaving, I wonder if we continue the snow potential into early March, despite the increasingly bad Pacific. Then maybe the bad Pacific/warmth finally sets in full force mid-March before maybe a cool shot or something just after equinox with 1 last shot of the white stuff."

We are in 100% agreement about the Pacific Pattern/warmth and what that means in general for the CONUS. But instead of a boring / very warm start with no snow, I am suggesting more of an above normal start with a few lower-end snow threats/cool shots. I don't think we continue a great cold, snowy pattern or anything.

1. The strengthening cold anomaly in the mid-upper stratosphere is duly noted but the 100-50mb layer looks to still have a residual ozone pool in the N. Atlantic/pole. Some evidence suggests that the PV at these layers will stay closer to Siberia, allowing ozone to be fluxed into this region. Ultimately, it breaks down, but how fast? We know a general NAM state can last 40 to as much as 60 days after first warming. This doesn't help us out, haha.

2. The MJO remains a mess but we've handled it well so far. I cannot argue that other than to say, it is possible we don't see a coherent MJO wave plow into phase 5-6-7...maybe not quite as incoherent as December but not exactly a clean propagation.

 

I'm definately agreeing with Adam on this one. With respect to the MJO evolution during the upcoming week, there are some indicators (besides global dynamical models) that suggests we should see a high amplitude pulse of MJO-convection over the eastern IO that should propagate eastward over the Maritime Continent and West Pacific. This type of evolution, along with a negative AAM tendency that should make the atmosphere "feel" like La Nina thereafter really bodes well for warmth from the Mid-Atlantic up into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This warmth could potentially last into the third week of March over the Northeast... needless to say a Morch type of year for the eastern US (Just learned the term "Morch" this past month =P ).

 

As for the west... I can see some colder conditions over Cali and the Great Basin in week 3, shifting more northward over the northwest for much of early-to-mid March. I'm thinking MJO-convection will move over the Mairitime-West Pac, increase poleward transport of mass via Rossby wave dispersion, build the mid-Aluetian Ridge and force a trough over the western U.S.

[Rainshadow]

I got asked Saturday at an orchard store up here if I had heard anything about spring temps/precip, especially for March. Last year's Morch was a complete disaster for growers up here since we had that cold period in April. Do you have any handle on what March will be like in the East? 

 

I hope not a repeat. That was a mess.  Our figs were set back, they got toasted at the end of April.  At least Feb is going to be closer to normal vs last Feb, but can see how end of Feb first half of March could be well "Morchy."  

[Bobby EPAWA]

12z EPS ENS means are no closer than the OP... in fact look farther offshore.  I don't get the individuals until 5:45pm, but judging by this, it can't look pretty.

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS096.gif

[HM]

I'm definately agreeing with Adam on this one. With respect to the MJO evolution during the upcoming week, there are some indicators (besides global dynamical models) that suggests we should see a high amplitude pulse of MJO-convection over the eastern IO that should propagate eastward over the Maritime Continent and West Pacific. This type of evolution, along with a negative AAM tendency that should make the atmosphere "feel" like La Nina thereafter really bodes well for warmth from the Mid-Atlantic up into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This warmth could potentially last into the third week of March over the Northeast... needless to say a Morch type of year for the eastern US (Just learned the term "Morch" this past month =P ).

 

As for the west... I can see some colder conditions over Cali and the Great Basin in week 3, shifting more northward over the northwest for much of early-to-mid March. I'm thinking MJO-convection will move over the Mairitime-West Pac, increase poleward transport of mass via Rossby wave dispersion, build the mid-Aluetian Ridge and force a trough over the western U.S.

Well, it was already figured out between Adam and me that our thinking wasn't all that different, so I'm not sure why you're taking sides, lol (if we had maps, his Northeast would be "redder" than mine haha). We all agree about where the Tropical Forcing is heading and what kind of response that promotes across the CONUS. But it is 1 piece of the puzzle; and if the negative NAO/AO response is correct, it is going to delay a "torch" response in the Northeast US. My suggestion is to refer to late Feb-early Mar 2007 for a great example of why using only the MJO will get you in trouble if you don't factor in the other side (north pole / strat / NAM).

Now I am well aware that this isn't 2007 all over again but I don't think it's as simple as a 2012 repeat either (2007 had some very torchy days in early March but it also had cold shots with snow). The structure of the tropical forcing isn't quite as simple as you are making it out here and I suspect it is why your earlier thoughts about the first 2 weeks of Feb were too warm in the Northeast (they were good thoughts and we did get some warm shots for sure).

[TUweathermanDD]

12z EPS ENS means are no closer than the OP... in fact look farther offshore. I don't get the individuals until 5:45pm, but judging by this, it can't look pretty.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS096.gif

Wait you get the individual Euro ensembles bobby?

[Heisy]

By the way, great discussion on here lately...Even though I wish it didn't make me so damn depressed, warmth, ugh. 

[Quakertown needs snow]

the start of warmth?

[CoastalWx]

The one good thing (thank the wavelengths getting  short on us) is that a -PNA especially north of PHL actually has a bit of + correlation in March..not as ugly as Jan and Feb. Throw in the -NAO split flow look up north and it argues for storminess anyways. I do agree with the temps being marginal as HM and other suggested, but I could see "Morch" waiting a bit. I see a bit of a December look to this pattern which means temps may be bootleg, but we likely won't have a shortage of storms.

[Mike.Ventrice]

Well, it was already figured out between Adam and me that our thinking wasn't all that different, so I'm not sure why you're taking sides, lol (if we had maps, his Northeast would be "redder" than mine haha). We all agree about where the Tropical Forcing is heading and what kind of response that promotes across the CONUS. But it is 1 piece of the puzzle; and if the negative NAO/AO response is correct, it is going to delay a "torch" response in the Northeast US. My suggestion is to refer to late Feb-early Mar 2007 for a great example of why using only the MJO will get you in trouble if you don't factor in the other side (north pole / strat / NAM).

Now I am well aware that this isn't 2007 all over again but I don't think it's as simple as a 2012 repeat either (2007 had some very torchy days in early March but it also had cold shots with snow). The structure of the tropical forcing isn't quite as simple as you are making it out here and I suspect it is why your earlier thoughts about the first 2 weeks of Feb were too warm in the Northeast (they were good thoughts and we did get some warm shots for sure).

Wasn't taking sides just agreeing with Adam. I added you to the post to chat about the MJO evolution... That's all. I appreciate your comments and discussion.

[nzucker]

the start of warmth?

 

 

the start of warmth?

That looks like a developing +PNA so I doubt you'd have excessive warmth...

[Bobby EPAWA]

Wait you get the individual Euro ensembles bobby?

 

Yes... through WeatherBELL models/Dr. Ryan Maue

[tombo82685]

From what i read on the euro weeklies. trof centered in midsection with cold coast to coast with an -nao...though the source is decently weenieish.

[phlwx]

Well, it was already figured out between Adam and me that our thinking wasn't all that different, so I'm not sure why you're taking sides, lol (if we had maps, his Northeast would be "redder" than mine haha). We all agree about where the Tropical Forcing is heading and what kind of response that promotes across the CONUS. But it is 1 piece of the puzzle; and if the negative NAO/AO response is correct, it is going to delay a "torch" response in the Northeast US. My suggestion is to refer to late Feb-early Mar 2007 for a great example of why using only the MJO will get you in trouble if you don't factor in the other side (north pole / strat / NAM).

Now I am well aware that this isn't 2007 all over again but I don't think it's as simple as a 2012 repeat either (2007 had some very torchy days in early March but it also had cold shots with snow). The structure of the tropical forcing isn't quite as simple as you are making it out here and I suspect it is why your earlier thoughts about the first 2 weeks of Feb were too warm in the Northeast (they were good thoughts and we did get some warm shots for sure).

 

In a ten day span in March 2007 we went from highs in the 20's (record low highs) to near 80 to a sleetstorm....the latter two within 48 hours of each other.

[Rainshadow]

Well the NAEFS week 2s are remaining ensconced in the Mormal camp.

[Boch23]

Well, it was already figured out between Adam and me that our thinking wasn't all that different, so I'm not sure why you're taking sides, lol (if we had maps, his Northeast would be "redder" than mine haha). We all agree about where the Tropical Forcing is heading and what kind of response that promotes across the CONUS. But it is 1 piece of the puzzle; and if the negative NAO/AO response is correct, it is going to delay a "torch" response in the Northeast US. My suggestion is to refer to late Feb-early Mar 2007 for a great example of why using only the MJO will get you in trouble if you don't factor in the other side (north pole / strat / NAM).

Now I am well aware that this isn't 2007 all over again but I don't think it's as simple as a 2012 repeat either (2007 had some very torchy days in early March but it also had cold shots with snow). The structure of the tropical forcing isn't quite as simple as you are making it out here and I suspect it is why your earlier thoughts about the first 2 weeks of Feb were too warm in the Northeast (they were good thoughts and we did get some warm shots for sure).

In a ten day span in March 2007 we went from highs in the 20's (record low highs) to near 80 to a sleetstorm....the latter two within 48 hours of each other.

I'll never forget that seemed like the temperature dropped 2 days straight. We drove to Lancaster that day we had a 12 of snow by the time we got to where we needed to be.

[Harbourton]

May be the euro might spin something up for us on Sunday? A little warm at this point ,but who knows.