tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Thanks. Just saw 2/14/06 in there too. Nesis 3 type stuff. yea you definitely remember that storm. It was 16 inches of snow that saturday night into sunday. That was the questionable snow measurement in cnetral park where they had like 2 ft. Then 4 days later it was in the 60s and the snow was gone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 has anyone been tracking the track record with these weeeeeklies since dec 1st? how accurate have they been for each week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 has anyone been tracking the track record with these weeeeeklies since dec 1st? how accurate have they been for each week? They've not been nearly as impressive as last year... probably because they are doing a worse job with the MJO with no stability from ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Sine Allan's site is down, ill resort to this. The med- long range GFS doesn't look too shabby for mid feb: Back loaded winter? We'll see. But that pacific is about as good as it gets. ecmwf Ens hours 192, 240: Not bad, not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow looking good on the ten day means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 #climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 #climo After looking a the MJO model forecasts. The current pulse looks to dive towards the COD and then quickly rebound into Phase 1. How does that translate for CONUS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Today's CPC D+11 analog composite has two analogs listed that are within a couple days of a NESIS 1 or NESIS 3 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 After looking a the MJO model forecasts. The current pulse looks to dive towards the COD and then quickly rebound into Phase 1. How does that translate for CONUS? phase 1 in february is warm, not blow torch but warm. Phase 2-3 are cold phases for february. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yup. The torch next week in the center part of the country is due to p1. P3 is the suppressed icebox like we had in Jan (which was the ssw not the mjo) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 from what i saw from reports the weeklies are cold right into morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 from what i saw from reports the weeklies are cold right into morch Control version of the weeklies had the cold in the Rockies and the west. Storm track to our west- cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Models are suppressing my storm boooo . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Models are suppressing my storm boooo . we've seen cutters and OTS"ers for the GAINESTORM. no worries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Models are seeing something out there. Whether they focus on the GAINESTORM or HMSTORM REDUX remains to be seen. Both are still on the table. Maybe the ollieouup from GAINES to HM? Not sure if this belongs in the 1-15th thread or whatnot, but just posting in here for now since it's outside that aforementioned time frame. ( this is the HM storm redux) 0z GEFS: and here's the 0z EURO ENS: quite a signal/synoptic set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 from what i saw from reports the weeklies are cold right into morch Morch, is that because of the predicted warmer MJO phases? Looks like we are "suppose to" get there during the last week of February. Week2 NAEFS prior to this has us normal-cold. Been pretty steady with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 No reason to suspect this MJO wave will dampen over the IO. Think at least Feb 21-Mar 8 is warm. We'll have to see from there. My crystal ball doesn't usually extend beyond a month. Stupid crystal ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 No reason to suspect this MJO wave will dampen over the IO. Think at least Feb 21-Mar 8 is warm. We'll have to see from there. My crystal ball doesn't usually extend beyond a month. Stupid crystal ball. Adam, you can do better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The 500 mb pattern does appear favorable next weekend for another storm. Let's see if the models can spin something up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 CPC D+8 composite analog is bone dry for all of the CONUS except for the NE. It's also colder than normal for most of the eastern half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On the 12Z Euro the cold air has left our side of the world at 240hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What do the weeklies look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What do the weeklies look like?Cool week 2, torchy weeks 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Cool week 2, torchy weeks 3 and 4. Thanks, sounds about right to start off Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Thanks, sounds about right to start off MOrch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Cool week 2, admachy weeks 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hm or Adam. Any thought on what spring may hold or what to look for? In terms of temperatures and moisture. In the golf course business, it's nice coming out of spring with normal to a little above normal so the plants aren't stressed already going into summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Obviously the mjo can be used for the temperatures. Are there phases that designate wetter periods or drier periods than others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 6-7-8-1 are wet in March, others dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 6-7-8-1 are wet in March, others dry So assuming we continue to loop around it should be at least normal precip wise. Are there any charts that illustrate precip correlated with the mjo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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