tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well Mike, Adam, HM et al were good to show those distinctions too. This thread has had some quality material here. BTW, (and I know they have been too bullish with this) but the weeklies are still bullish with a -NAO, although week 4 gets dicey with more of a -PNA +EPO look. Scott, is it a solid west based or east based? Just looking at day 10 euro ens, it looks like its trying to go to an east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 per the roundy mjo, looks like this mjo wave dies in phase 1 or heads to the COD. Looks like a rather robust mjo wave to close out february in phase 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Scott, is it a solid west based or east based? Just looking at day 10 euro ens, it looks like its trying to go to an east based. The best anomalies were in the Davis Straits area. But on week 4, there was a tongue of higher anomalies extending south into the northeast which makes sense given how the west looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The best anomalies were in the Davis Straits area. But on week 4, there was a tongue of higher anomalies extending south into the northeast which makes sense given how the west looks. thanks, not bad, sounds like a solid west based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS shows a solid 110-120 knot jet slamming into the SW US 2/6-2/8 with no polar vortex retreat. The first two "clippers" are real clippers, embedded entirely within the continental air mass / northern stream. The 2/5-2/7 systems are Pacific Origin technically and have a little more southern stream to work with. The next PV revolution southward comes on 2/10. How will it play out?!?!? Edit: naturally the post-truncation GFS becomes phase-happy which is complete nonsense. The -30c air behind the Arctic Cold front will push through quickly missing the southern wave as that trails behind leading to a potential snow event. I don't think this will be an inland runner. The only thing keeping me from being more confident is the lack of an appreciable -NAO; otherwise, I'd be calling for a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah I know P3 can be a good thing, just thinking about afterwards, but I agree with the CPAC staying active for a while longer. That's legit right there..it's like a freaking Christmas tree on IR imagery. I just wonder what may cause the beatdown of the ridging in the AK area. Something I thought about was this dump of +AAM and increase of the PAC jet...perhaps working against us with such a strong jet. At the same time, I do see signs of perhaps a rebuild of ridging near AK towards the end of the 11-15 day. This whole evolution is intriguing because 2 weeks ago Feb looked like an icebox. Something certainly changed and the Pacific jet seems to be the common denominator. I don't know if the strat is to blame since the cooling has not even come close to propagating down, but the warming seems to have waned. Luckily I'm not an energy met so I can sit back and observe...just curious as to other thoughts around here. I think I got this right, someone correct me if I'm wrong. But I thought Wes posted last year that if the e-p fluxing is equatorward, there is less of a chance of the strat warming coming downward. Last week or so, the fluxing has been more equatorbound. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/ep_12z_nh.html The EC site just shows 10 (mb) fluxing and not much at that. I suppose in this instance if the warmth is at 50 mb that prog is about as useful as me with a three iron and a big lake to cross. It just reads like a ball of confusion with these outlooks, seems to change with every issuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Tony, post-SSW, the wave refraction is usually neutral, weak and oscillating in the stratosphere because the polar night jet has been weakened considerably to residual PV anomalies. The Tropospheric flux isn't as important post-SSW. Before and during the SSW initiation, the EP flux was poleward and effectively directed the wave breaking toward the vortex. The first warming / -AO was nearly instant, bringing us significant polar blocking and very cold air. Usually these compromised NAM states lead to a second and even third round of polar blocking over the course of 40-60 days. The entire lower to mid stratosphere is still weak, warm and favorable for additional blocking episodes. This wasn't and isn't a top-down warming from remote tropically-induced wave flux over the course of months. This is internal, more instantaneous, warmings and we may not be done yet this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Tony, post-SSW, the wave refraction is usually neutral, weak and oscillating in the stratosphere because the polar night jet has been weakened considerably to residual PV anomalies. The Tropospheric flux isn't as important post-SSW. Before and during the SSW initiation, the EP flux was poleward and effectively directed the wave breaking toward the vortex. The first warming / -AO was nearly instant, bringing us significant polar blocking and very cold air. Usually these compromised NAM states lead to a second and even third round of polar blocking over the course of 40-60 days. The entire lower to mid stratosphere is still weak, warm and favorable for additional blocking episodes. This wasn't and isn't a top-down warming from remote tropically-induced wave flux over the course of months. This is internal, more instantaneous, warmings and we may not be done yet this season. HM, Yes it was (pre SSW). Thank-you for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well Mike, Adam, HM et al were good to show those distinctions too. This thread has had some quality material here. BTW, (and I know they have been too bullish with this) but the weeklies are still bullish with a -NAO, although week 4 gets dicey with more of a -PNA +EPO look. Yes great stuff as always..HM was the one who further pointed it out to me with the phase 1 WPO signal and what not...With that said, 10mb is now in the freezer, though 50 mb is certainly hanging on through mid-feb. The location of the cold anomalies at that level support the gathering of the vortex towards the eastern Siberia area like the models have been showing, but that doesnt mean winter is over for us. Screw the weeklies, I'm so done with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Stratospheric forecast continue to show a -u anomaly descending in the 80N-90N belt which peaks Feb 8-11 roughly. The models are cooling the upper levels but showing signs of the 10mb vortex being located over Europe. Finally, the N PAC is showing signs of an ozone build up in the 70-30mb layer due to the tropospheric low anomaly here (whether it's placed WPO style or Aleutian style is irrelevant). There are no major coolings projected below 10mb and the wave forecasts remain weak because the lowest half of the stratosphere was recently obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yes great stuff as always..HM was the one who further pointed it out to me with the phase 1 WPO signal and what not...With that said, 10mb is now in the freezer, though 50 mb is certainly hanging on through mid-feb. The location of the cold anomalies at that level support the gathering of the vortex towards the eastern Siberia area like the models have been showing, but that doesnt mean winter is over for us. Screw the weeklies, I'm so done with them. Last winter they were pretty good, this winter they have been all over the place. The NAEFS week 2 weeklies have not been bad this winter. I realize as of yesterday they were warm for week 2. There is always the CFS2 weeklies , I dont remember the last time they were not cold. (I dont check them daily, I'm sure there is one or two in there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Last winter they were pretty good, this winter they have been all over the place. There is always the CFS2 weeklies, I dont remember the last time they were not cold. last winter probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looks like the Euro wants to split the PV and send the strongest part to the other side of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 As most are aware, there is incredible model volatility between the GFS and ECMWF in the upcoming two weeks. I've been leaning towards a warmer solution for much of the NE US, consistent with the EC runs, however GFS is showing a large trough diving down the central US interior... sliding eastward thereafter. After a bit of digging around, I just noticed that the GFS is holding up a strong eastward propagating convectively-coupled Kelvin wave over S. America in the next week... The easiest way to illustrate this is a time-longitude plot of 850 hPa Velocity Potential anomalies. Here the warm colors represent low-level convergence. You can see a fast moving positive VP850 anomaly from the dateline on Jan 28, and currently is located at approx 60W today. Once in GFS-forecast mode, it keeps this signal stationary, with NO eastward propagation thereafter. In MJO-phase space his type of evolution would suggest a hold up in phase 8... which you can see in the diagram below. I'm fairly confident this type of MJO-evolution will not occur, and we should see a continous eastward propagation through the upcoming week, with a decent signal in MJO-phase 2-3 by Feb 7-10-> consistent with ECMWF Ens predictions. So that being said... I'm leaning towards more of a EC outcome in extratropcal circulation patterns for upcoming few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 euro ens pumping up the ak ridge last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I was wrong with my medium range thoughts last week in the sense that the Pacific Monster would come fully out to be the possible threat in the 2/5-10 long range window. However, the general idea of that window is still okay with the threat around 2/8-9. Models were basically weakening this piece of southern energy last week; but, the slower arrival of the Pac Low gives room for this feature to stay amplified as it spins off. The stronger this system, the quicker the transfer of the northern low to the coast. This could possibly be a classic rain to heavy snow scenario, quite easily. After we break with warmth for a bit, we'll get the baroclinic zone back to the coast 2/12-16 for maybe another threat. It is quite possible that nothing major occurs with this as the front hits the coast and that we wait until a possible MT induced PNA spike around 2/20. I'll comment more tomorrow about that once I look more deeply into things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I was wrong with my medium range thoughts last week in the sense that the Pacific Monster would come fully out to be the possible threat in the 2/5-10 long range window. However, the general idea of that window is still okay with the threat around 2/8-9. Models were basically weakening this piece of southern energy last week; but, the slower arrival of the Pac Low gives room for this feature to stay amplified as it spins off. The stronger this system, the quicker the transfer of the northern low to the coast. This could possibly be a classic rain to heavy snow scenario, quite easily. After we break with warmth for a bit, we'll get the baroclinic zone back to the coast 2/12-16 for maybe another threat. It is quite possible that nothing major occurs with this as the front hits the coast and that we wait until a possible MT induced PNA spike around 2/20. I'll comment more tomorrow about that once I look more deeply into things. Secondary low potential does exist around the 13th. I think the 12Z EC is to far northwest with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Secondary low potential does exist around the 13th. I think the 12Z EC is to far northwest with it. I think this system is the perfect example of how the GFS has a tendency to do better with the northern stream systems, but the ECMWF does better with the southern stream systems, hence why the GFS's accuracy scores have been higher in the 7-10 day range lately, because these storms have been mostly northern stream. Now we are starting to see southern stream energy starting with the day 5 system, so I can imagine that the EC will start performing better again in the longer range, example being the 240 hr threat on the EC, which I agree is likely too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I think this system is the perfect example of how the GFS has a tendency to do better with the northern stream systems, but the ECMWF does better with the southern stream systems, hence why the GFS's accuracy scores have been higher in the 7-10 day range lately, because these storms have been mostly northern stream. Now we are starting to see southern stream energy starting with the day 5 system, so I can imagine that the EC will start performing better again in the longer range, example being the 240 hr threat on the EC, which I agree is likely too far west. Also note that the models that basically have no transfer are quicker with the arrival of the Pacific Low to the SW USA, which limits the amplification of the first s/w. The ECMWF/GFS/ensembles are slower and have at least partial phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Last winter they were pretty good, this winter they have been all over the place. The NAEFS week 2 weeklies have not been bad this winter. I realize as of yesterday they were warm for week 2. There is always the CFS2 weeklies , I dont remember the last time they were not cold. (I dont check them daily, I'm sure there is one or two in there). Hah I do recall the CFS2 was calling for a warm early Dec (the euro weeklies were hinting at cold)...of course the CFS was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Well those that cancelled the CONUS winter are probably adjusting I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The MJO is already in phase 1: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The MJO is already in phase 1: phase 1 is a warmer phase in february. You want phase 2-3 which correlates to cold for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 interesting top analog off the day 8-14 from the cpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 My thoughts on the weeklies or what Little I can see of them. Feb 4-11 near normal with periods of warmth and seasonable chill canceling each other out. Stormy. Feb 11-25 above normal temps stormy. cold dumps from northern plains into Rockies with SE ridge. Here's the change that i suspect most will like . Feb 25- Mar 7 colder than normal,stormy. Storm tracks shifts to coast or just offshore. Not sure what to make of this yet for week 4. I'll look at a few things Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 My thoughts on the weeklies or what Little I can see of them. Feb 4-11 near normal with periods of warmth and seasonable chill canceling each other out. Stormy. Feb 11-25 above normal temps stormy. cold dumps from northern plains into Rockies with SE ridge. Here's the change that i suspect most will like . Feb 25- Mar 7 colder than normal,stormy. Storm tracks shifts to coast or just offshore. Not sure what to make of this yet for week 4. I'll look at a few things Tuesday. thanks Mitchell, much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Tom, What was that storm? Have a link for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah but colder than normal when the average temp is up over 45, might not help all that much I would think. Though it may be time to start putting out some warnings about the March 5th storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Tom, What was that storm? Have a link for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Tom, What was that storm? Have a link for it? Thanks. Just saw 2/14/06 in there too. Nesis 3 type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.