Medium Range-Long Range thread

[Mike.Ventrice]

Mike thanks for the post. Just for clarification, do you think the MJO is currently in phase 7 transitioning into phase 8 or do you think it is in phase 1? This wouldn't be the first time this cold season that this BS happened and complicated a situation beyond what it first appeared to look like.

 

I just blogged about this today at work. It's already over Africa and has begun initiating convection over the western IO. I think the left over PV over the SPCZ is causing the RMM headaches, since the circulation associated with the MJO is over Africa (phase 1)

.

[Mike.Ventrice]

I just blogged about this today at work. It's already over Africa and has begun initiating convection over the western IO. I think the left over PV over the SPCZ is causing the RMM headaches, since the circulation associated with the MJO is over Africa (phase 1)

.

 

Didn't mean to send this yet. The MJO signal has weakened as it propagated over the Western Hemisphere. However, this is a suggestion from the GWO/GLAAM that the MJO will reintensify (or initiate a new MJO) once it centers itself about the Indian Ocean. The GFS is forecasting negative GLAAM tendencies and a downward dive to phases 1 and 2 in the GWO frame-work, which would support warmth over NE US.

 

[tombo82685]

Didn't mean to send this yet. The MJO signal has weakened as it propagated over the Western Hemisphere. However, this is a suggestion from the GWO/GLAAM that the MJO will reintensify (or initiate a new MJO) once it centers itself about the Indian Ocean. The GFS is forecasting negative GLAAM tendencies and a downward dive to phases 1 and 2 in the GWO frame-work, which would support warmth over NE US.

 

Is that all part of the mjo or is separate from the mjo, i thought it was separate. Cause those phases you posted are different than the ones i saw for february. Phase one is a warmer phase but i saw phase 2-3 are colder.

[Mike.Ventrice]

Is that all part of the mjo or is separate from the mjo, i thought it was separate. Cause those phases you posted are different than the ones i saw for february. Phase one is a warmer phase but i saw phase 2-3 are colder.

 

Just to make things more complicated, these are suppose to be "different" than the MJO, but in reality it's all connected. These phases are for the Global Wind Oscillation specifically, not truely the MJO, but related to the MJO.

[NJwinter23]

Didn't mean to send this yet. The MJO signal has weakened as it propagated over the Western Hemisphere. However, this is a suggestion from the GWO/GLAAM that the MJO will reintensify (or initiate a new MJO) once it centers itself about the Indian Ocean. The GFS is forecasting negative GLAAM tendencies and a downward dive to phases 1 and 2 in the GWO frame-work, which would support warmth over NE US.

 

 

Mike, 

 

Thanks for posting this stuff as always. Your graphics and analysis are much appreciated

[tombo82685]

Just to make things more complicated, these are suppose to be "different" than the MJO, but in reality it's all connected. These phases are for the Global Wind Oscillation specifically, not truely the MJO, but related to the MJO.

What site, if you don't mind me asking do you get all those graphics off?

[Mike.Ventrice]

What site, if you don't mind me asking do you get all those graphics off?

 

A grad student at Albany, Nick Shiraldi: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.htmlhttp://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.htmlhttp://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.htmlhttp://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

[tombo82685]

A grad student at Albany, Nick Shiraldi: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.htmlhttp://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.htmlhttp://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.htmlhttp://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

 

awesome, bookmarked.

[CoastalWx]

Well the euro ensembles got less uglier which isn't a huge surprise. It still is riding the line for Philly...but at least it will be more active.

[Rainshadow]

A grad student at Albany, Nick Shiraldi: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.htmlhttp://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.htmlhttp://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.htmlhttp://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

 

Mike,

 

This is fantastic.  I realize this is a forecast like any other, but there is a (Captain Obvious quote to follow) definite relation between the GWO and big time winter storms in the Philly area.  I wish i had a dollar for every time I muttered to myself about wanting to see a GWO outlook.  If I can find that figure at work (not back til the weekend), I'll re-post it.

[Rainshadow]

I just blogged about this today at work. It's already over Africa and has begun initiating convection over the western IO. I think the left over PV over the SPCZ is causing the RMM headaches, since the circulation associated with the MJO is over Africa (phase 1)

.

 

Mike,

 

So if I am reading this right, the actual convection (OLR part) is now in Africa, but the vestige wind fields are making the total calculation read like we are still in phase 7?  So last week was really phase 8 for us?

[Mike.Ventrice]

Mike,

 

So if I am reading this right, the actual convection (OLR part) is now in Africa, but the vestige wind fields are making the total calculation read like we are still in phase 7?  So last week was really phase 8 for us?

Yes, the MJO-core convection is anchored over Africa and beginning to slide eastward over the Indian Ocean (phase 1). I speculate we were in phase 8 between Jan 24-28ish. It appears that U850 and OLR is holding up things in phase 7, whereas the MJO-U200 signal is now located over the Indian Ocean. The SPCZ is very active at the moment, and often lags the MJO for a week or two after it passes. The RMM indices will get stuck during these times... eventually it will right itself but it may jump into the inner core and eventually jump back out. I'd be very surprised if any of the dynamical models had a good feel for the current scenario... I'm watching it very closely!

[am19psu]

But isn't the OLR signature the relevant part for mid-latitude teleconnections? It's the latent heat release that ultimately transfers momentum and builds ridges and troughs downstream, no?

[Mike.Ventrice]

But isn't the OLR signature the relevant part for mid-latitude teleconnections? It's the latent heat release that ultimately transfers momentum and builds ridges and troughs downstream, no?

 

Of course! The active SPCZ was the probably the result of the MJO passing by... it has remained active even after the MJO has radiated away into the Western Hemisphere. I'm just trying to subtract the noise from the true MJO signal and figure out when we might see that MJO move back out over the West Pac.

[am19psu]

Of course! The active SPCZ was the probably the result of the MJO passing by... it has remained active even after the MJO has radiated away into the Western Hemisphere. I'm just trying to subtract the noise from the true MJO signal and figure out when we might see that MJO move back out over the West Pac.

Gotcha

[tombo82685]

I have a question, though its not related to winter. When you use the mjo for favorable tropical development in the atlantic, does the western hemisphere mjo waves come into play or is it still eastern hemisphere related. Also, i imagine the mjo phases that place a ridge over the east increase the threat to the east coast?

[Rainshadow]

I have a question, though its not related to winter. When you use the mjo for favorable tropical development in the atlantic, does the western hemisphere mjo waves come into play or is it still eastern hemisphere related. Also, i imagine the mjo phases that place a ridge over the east increase the threat to the east coast?

 

There is something to the MJO being beneficial for tropical development (favorable 200 mb divergence?).  You do see this during the tropical season of going from no named storms for a couple of weeks to two or three simultaneously. I'm not saying its the only driver, but it does provide spells of more/less favorable conditions. I dont know if there is a MJO phase that correlates with a west -nao  and/or a trough in the Great Lakes, but I would imagine that would be the one.

[Mike.Ventrice]

I have a question, though its not related to winter. When you use the mjo for favorable tropical development in the atlantic, does the western hemisphere mjo waves come into play or is it still eastern hemisphere related. Also, i imagine the mjo phases that place a ridge over the east increase the threat to the east coast?

 

I'm not sure if this is the right subform to discuss tropics but I'll be brief During summer, when MJO convection is active over the Indian Ocean and propagates northward over the Indian continent, you usually have your most active TC-genesis conditions over the Atlantic (Phases 1-3). There's a number of things that MJO contributes to... increased convection over W Africa during RMM phases 8-2, consequently increasing african easterly wave activity during rmm phases 1-3, thus increasing your potential seedlings for tropical cyclones over the Atlantic.  The large-scale environment over the Atlantic also becomes more favorable for stronger tropical cyclones, usually during phases 3 and 4. If you want to read an article about it. Now Atlantic genesis can occur in all phases of the MJO, however when a tropical cyclone develops in phases 5-8, it's less likely that it would achieve hurricane strength.

[QVectorman]

Mike thanks for clearing that up on the MJO I posted about whether the MJO was over Africa or eastern pacific about a week and a half ago based on the VP 200 and 850 and no one was mentioning anything in reply so I was starting to think I was crazy. I was going to ask you and glad you mentioned it here. Also thanks for the GWO forecast I was just talking to someone the other day how there wasn't any GWO forecasts that I knew off out there and ta da!  

[Mike.Ventrice]

Mike thanks for clearing that up on the MJO I posted about whether the MJO was over Africa or eastern pacific about a week and a half ago based on the VP 200 and 850 and no one was mentioning anything in reply so I was starting to think I was crazy. I was going to ask you and glad you mentioned it here. Also thanks for the GWO forecast I was just talking to someone the other day how there wasn't any GWO forecasts that I knew off out there and ta da!  

 

Just to clarify with regards to the GWO real-time forecast product, it is something that has just been developed by Nick Schiraldi. So it will probably be good to go, however there is always a chance of a bug here or there that could cause some spurious data/changes. 

[Rainshadow]

Just to clarify with regards to the GWO real-time forecast product, it is something that has just been developed by Nick Schiraldi. So it will probably be good to go, however there is always a chance of a bug here or there that could cause some spurious data/changes. 

 

Mike,

 

As of now its our only source of that type of information being generated to my knowledge which should help either corroborate or lessen confidence in the medium range of higher impact events.

[QVectorman]

Mike,

 

As of now its our only source of that type of information being generated to my knowledge which should help either corroborate or lessen confidence in the medium range of higher impact events.

Ya I was just going to post that. Something is better than nothing And I appreciate his work. At least someone is taking the time to get the ball rolling on trying to forecast the GWO!

[tombo82685]

I honestly didn't even know other indices had phases other than the mjo. That's why i enjoy reading these forums. Every year i and I'm sure other people learn new interesting tools to forecasting. Does the gwo favorable phases change like the mjo's during each month? If so is there a link that shows the progression for each month?

[HM]

If the modeling is mishandling the Tropical Pacific (if, really?!?! lol) then it makes sense that they are gradually bringing on the phase 1 WPO signal that transitions into a cold PNA signal mid-month.

1. The +WPO anomaly should retrograde based on the IO forcing and stratospheric trends (IO forcing more important). This needs to be watched for FUTURE stratospheric warmings. I'm telling you guys, this won't be as easy as last year's "downwelling cool upper stratospheric +AO signal." I could see another quick bottom-up warming from a wave 1 amplification and the initiation could be during the consolidation process of the IO wave--EA MT response (along with the N PAC low in tandem).

2. The long range ensemble means are useless when you have a rapidly revolving polar vortex with each member disagreeing on its position and speed...the average will look dumb. My advice is to supplement PV placement with Spag Plots and climo of Pacific Factors.

3. The Central Pacific forcing is still very much dominating the N Pac pattern with an equatorial KW shooting across the E PAC and a few RW heading into the western Pacific. This has broadened the area of forcing, strengthened the Hadley Cell here and extended the Pacific Jet. The anticyclone reached the Dateline a few days ago and is firmly entrenched. The upper low that breaks off to the East will supply the STJ in a few days to the CONUS.

There has been a MRG and KW in the IO leading the African Pulse as the MJO begins to make the transition into the Indian Ocean. There have been upper lows propagating poleward, slowly, from N. Africa into India / Himalayas. The question is: how long will it take for the Pacific convection to subside and the focus to become the IO? The longer the subsiding takes, the longer the anticyclone stays in place at the Dateline and subsidence stays over Indonesia (both are important for anchoring an Aleutian-PNA system). I agree with Mike that the MJO signal should go into the circle of death (because it really is a distorted signal at this point) and possibly remain in the 1-2-3-4 octants for a good chunk of Feb.

[HM]

 

Just to clarify with regards to the GWO real-time forecast product, it is something that has just been developed by Nick Schiraldi. So it will probably be good to go, however there is always a chance of a bug here or there that could cause some spurious data/changes. 

 

This is a nice product, thanks for the link. I agree with your warning as well as the fact that it is based off the GEFS! haha

Does the product tend to be too fast or slow with the AAM changes?

[CoastalWx]

There is still a tendency to keep higher heights near AK even at 50mb while the column above does cool. The East Asian MT idea is interesting with any possibly MJO flare up in the IO...would think the strat is not in a hostile environment for that like it was say last year or even earlier in December. Just seems like we are at a battle with the IO and how fast the CPAC convection winds down. I see arguments for both, but I couldn't say for sure who wins. I do worry about the IO.

[HM]

 

There is still a tendency to keep higher heights near AK even at 50mb while the column above does cool. The East Asian MT idea is interesting with any possibly MJO flare up in the IO...would think the strat is not in a hostile environment for that like it was say last year or even earlier in December. Just seems like we are at a battle with the IO and how fast the CPAC convection winds down. I see arguments for both, but I couldn't say for sure who wins. I do worry about the IO.

 

You shouldn't worry about IO forcing. This time of year, the IO forcing basically brings a PNA pattern. The Feb 5-10 period is the TNH hangover with a slowly retrograding +WPO and displaced PV into Quebec, albeit brief displacement. The southern stream will become even more active next week, despite the -AAM tendency currently. This is a bit of a climo lag type of thing from the current regime in place.

I could see a substantial RNA develop 2/20-3/5 once we consolidate the wave into the IO early Feb and propagate into phase 4-5 (I think it will take some time for the C PAC to fully relax). However, I also expect the AO might try to go negative. It is quite possible (help me for saying this) that the Midwest sees a turn-around here late winter-early spring. A strong analog showing up is 1975 which brought a major April snowstorm to the Chicago area. This is just speculation because I'm still unsure about the stratosphere right now. My gut says March isn't a simple blowtorch this year / +AO.

[CoastalWx]

  

You shouldn't worry about IO forcing. This time of year, the IO forcing basically brings a PNA pattern. The Feb 5-10 period is the TNH hangover with a slowly retrograding +WPO and displaced PV into Quebec, albeit brief displacement. The southern stream will become even more active next week, despite the -AAM tendency currently. This is a bit of a climo lag type of thing from the current regime in place.

I could see a substantial RNA develop 2/20-3/5 once we consolidate the wave into the IO early Feb and propagate into phase 4-5 (I think it will take some time for the C PAC to fully relax). However, I also expect the AO might try to go negative. It is quite possible (help me for saying this) that the Midwest sees a turn-around here late winter-early spring. A strong analog showing up is 1975 which brought a major April snowstorm to the Chicago area. This is just speculation because I'm still unsure about the stratosphere right now. My gut says March isn't a simple blowtorch this year / +AO.

 

Yeah I know P3 can be a good thing, just thinking about afterwards, but I agree with the CPAC staying active for a while longer. That's legit right there..it's like a freaking Christmas tree on IR imagery.

 

I just wonder what may cause the beatdown of the ridging in the AK area. Something I thought about was this dump of +AAM and increase of the PAC jet...perhaps working against us with such a strong jet. At the same time, I do see signs of perhaps a rebuild of ridging near AK towards the end of the 11-15 day. 

 

This whole evolution is intriguing because 2 weeks ago Feb looked like an icebox. Something certainly changed and the Pacific jet seems to be the common denominator. I don't know if the strat is to blame since the cooling has not even come close to propagating down, but the warming seems to have waned. Luckily I'm not an energy met so I can sit back and observe...just curious as to other thoughts around here.

[NJwinter23]

Yeah I know P3 can be a good thing, just thinking about afterwards, but I agree with the CPAC staying active for a while longer. That's legit right there..it's like a freaking Christmas tree on IR imagery.

 

I just wonder what may cause the beatdown of the ridging in the AK area. Something I thought about was this dump of +AAM and increase of the PAC jet...perhaps working against us with such a strong jet. At the same time, I do see signs of perhaps a rebuild of ridging near AK towards the end of the 11-15 day. 

 

This whole evolution is intriguing because 2 weeks ago Feb looked like an icebox. Something certainly changed and the Pacific jet seems to be the common denominator. I don't know if the strat is to blame since the cooling has not even come close to propagating down, but the warming seems to have waned. Luckily I'm not an energy met so I can sit back and observe...just curious as to other thoughts around here.

 

Fun times ahead lol. By the way, I understand now what you and others were saying the other day about the MJO handling of the EC versus GEFS  phase 8-1-2, etc...I was focusing too much on the composite anomalies over the eastern U.S. and not the retrograding pacific aspect. 

[CoastalWx]

Fun times ahead lol. By the way, I understand now what you and others were saying the other day about the MJO handling of the EC versus GEFS  phase 8-1-2, etc...I was focusing too much on the composite anomalies over the eastern U.S. and not the retrograding pacific aspect. 

 

Well Mike, Adam, HM et al were good to show those distinctions too. This thread has had some quality material here. 

 

BTW, (and I know they have been too bullish with this) but the weeklies are still bullish with a -NAO, although week 4 gets dicey with more of a -PNA +EPO look.