Medium Range-Long Range thread

[tombo82685]

That next tuesday storm looks solid on this run of the gfs. All comes down to that clipper on sunday if that can bomb. The 12z gfs bombs that low and actually forces somewhat of a transient -nao that locks that pv in a good spot to hold in the cold and cause the storm to redevelop off se va. Still need that northern storm to push a little south for the city and surrounding burbs and south jersey. The 925mb low tracks right over them and gives a warm push changing it over to non snow.

[HM]

Back to better splitting, quicker arrival and stronger first clipper.... makes next week much more interesting.

[Quakertown needs snow]

still snowing at 171hr

[NaoPos]

That next tuesday storm looks solid on this run of the gfs. All comes down to that clipper on sunday if that can bomb. The 12z gfs bombs that low and actually forces somewhat of a transient -nao that locks that pv in a good spot to hold in the cold and cause the storm to redevelop off se va.

and actually slow down and make a turn up the coast instead of shooting due fishward..east*

[Quakertown needs snow]

Out by 177hr.

Hope the 12z euro comes to play today.

[chubbs]

Nice run - need same in other models

[HM]

You can already see the next PV after day 7 moving into the NW PAC, ready to take over as "Aleutian Low" and pump up the PNA ridge. How exactly this goes down with small details will be ridiculous on the modeling but the next PAC s/w (with its pac air) will either be more full-latitude or split. Nothing will stop the warm anomalies in the mid-section of the CONUS but the clippers can put the brakes on the warmth for the Northeast.

[HM]

Also, in case you guys didn't notice, the southern stream is there and feeds into the 2/5 system.

[am19psu]

Also, in case you guys didn't notice, the southern stream is there and feeds into the 2/5 system.

#climo

[am19psu]

You can already see the next PV after day 7 moving into the NW PAC, ready to take over as "Aleutian Low" and pump up the PNA ridge. How exactly this goes down with small details will be ridiculous on the modeling but the next PAC s/w (with its pac air) will either be more full-latitude or split. Nothing will stop the warm anomalies in the mid-section of the CONUS but the clippers can put the breaks on the warmth for the Northeast.

I won't believe it until I see it on the Euro ensemble. Only then will I do another flip flop on my forecast.

[HM]

I won't believe it until I see it on the Euro ensemble. Only then will I do another flip flop on my forecast.

 

Post-truncation, the GFS seems "easy" with rushing into a +WPO/NAO/PNA and so it has no problem leaving the southern wave behind. I suppose this is a probable solution 2/8-2/12 but man it'd be nice to see this without truncation.

[HM]

#climo

 

Lol...

 

I always feel better with a "confident Adam" ripping apart primitive forecasting styles left and right.

 

Hey can you loan me a shovel?

[chubbs]

Post-truncation, the GFS seems "easy" with rushing into a +WPO/NAO/PNA and so it has no problem leaving the southern wave behind. I suppose this is a probable solution 2/8-2/12 but man it'd be nice to see this without truncation.

 

Yeah if we get stonger clippers and hold the PV in better it should just cascade down the line

[Quakertown needs snow]

Lol...

 

I always feel better with a "confident Adam" ripping apart primitive forecasting styles left and right.

 

Hey can you loan me a shovel?

ruh roh, HM needs a shovel, big hit coming

[am19psu]

ruh roh, HM needs a shovel, big hit coming

To be clear, I'm not confident that there will be a significant storm, but I am confident that the pattern would be capable of producing one and that winter still has another 3 weeks or so before we read its last rites.

[tombo82685]

Post-truncation, the GFS seems "easy" with rushing into a +WPO/NAO/PNA and so it has no problem leaving the southern wave behind. I suppose this is a probable solution 2/8-2/12 but man it'd be nice to see this without truncation.

What does the wpo correlate to? I know its the western pacific oscillation. I'm assuming it has something to do with ridging up into alaska on the -phases and trofing into alaska in positive phases? 

[HM]

What does the wpo correlate to? I know its the western pacific oscillation. I'm assuming it has something to do with ridging up into alaska on the -phases and trofing into alaska in positive phases? 

 

The WPO is essentially a function of AAM and tropical forcing but it has a meaningful correlation in this "causal step ladder." It basically is a poleward advancement of the Aleutian Low pattern/hybrid +AO pattern, cutting off the Canadian Pipeline and flooding the CONUS with Pacific Air (with all else being equal) as low heights develop over the Chukchi and Bering Sea.

 

[CoastalWx]

I want to vomit just looking at that image.

[Rainshadow]

What does the wpo correlate to? I know its the western pacific oscillation. I'm assuming it has something to do with ridging up into alaska on the -phases and trofing into alaska in positive phases? 

 

Kind of a generic map, but I think it gets the point across.  (Or you can see HM's post above).

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/wpo.composite.gif

[HM]

You can go here to track the WPO and see forecasts for it:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/wpo.png

 

The GFS goes right into something like this but with a little more PV influence in eastern Canada and more PNA ridging.

[tombo82685]

The WPO is essentially a function of AAM and tropical forcing but it has a meaningful correlation in this "causal step ladder." It basically is a poleward advancement of the Aleutian Low pattern/hybrid +AO pattern, cutting off the Canadian Pipeline and flooding the CONUS with Pacific Air (with all else being equal) as low heights develop over the Chukchi and Bering Sea.

 

Wouldn't that give the opposite signal that the mjo is showing, which is trof in the east?

[HM]

I want to vomit just looking at that image.

 

Yes,  it can make any winter lover sick but is this the correct forecast?

 

I could make an argument that it isn't and a hybrid style of this with more PNA and more east-based -NAO stuff going on would be more correct. Also, with the bombing 2/5 low and a possible quicker migration of the PAC wave, you got yourself another coastal storm setup.

[chubbs]

This is similar to where we were a week out from last fridays system. A few interesting GFS runs with the Euro north.

[Rainshadow]

That next tuesday storm looks solid on this run of the gfs. All comes down to that clipper on sunday if that can bomb. The 12z gfs bombs that low and actually forces somewhat of a transient -nao that locks that pv in a good spot to hold in the cold and cause the storm to redevelop off se va. Still need that northern storm to push a little south for the city and surrounding burbs and south jersey. The 925mb low tracks right over them and gives a warm push changing it over to non snow.

 

Since being a Debbie Downer is working, I won't stop now.  Gotta be careful with the GFS of late, its been bombing happy, overforecasting the strength of these surface lows.  It was 10 to 20 mb too deep with a North Atlantic low and its already up about 10 mb with tomorrow's low's strength in Quebec. So depending upon another bombing solution to produce a transient -nao is not having a great track record lately.  (18z run can now have the 500mb cutting off and stalling east of NJ).

[CoastalWx]

Yes,  it can make any winter lover sick but is this the correct forecast?

 

I could make an argument that it isn't and a hybrid style of this with more PNA and more east-based -NAO stuff going on would be more correct. Also, with the bombing 2/5 low and a possible quicker migration of the PAC wave, you got yourself another coastal storm setup.

 

I sort of like the warmth getting into the Plains, but then perhaps having a tough time in the east..at least  for a time anyways. The euro ensembles in the 11-15 day basically Kid 'N Play flat top our nice ridge in NW Canada and the cutoff over the SW (which may be a bias?) pumps up the SE ridge. The GEFS and even Canadian don't completely agree at all.

[tombo82685]

Since being a Debbie Downer is working, I won't stop now.  Gotta be careful with the GFS of late, its been bombing happy, overforecasting the strength of these surface lows.  It was 10 to 20 mb too deep with a North Atlantic low and its already up about 10 mb with tomorrow's low's strength in Quebec. So depending upon another bombing solution to produce a transient -nao is not having a great track record lately.  (18z run can now have the 500mb cutting off and stalling east of NJ).

The 12z gefs are further south than the 6z ones and further south than the operational, which isn't surprising . Keep up your negativity its working. Where is Colin when you need him?

[HM]

I sort of like the warmth getting into the Plains, but then perhaps having a tough time in the east..at least  for a time anyways. The euro ensembles in the 11-15 day basically Kid 'N Play flat top our nice ridge in NW Canada and the cutoff over the SW (which may be a bias?) pumps up the SE ridge. The GEFS and even Canadian don't completely agree at all.

 

Haha...or if you are a Knicks fan: Iman Shumpert.

 

I agree about the Plains and what you said for the Northeast. If the WPO is the lead teleconnection, the cut off in the SW is possible for a few days. A lot has to do with the MJO's influence (or lack there of) and transitions. Once you get into a phase 3, ridging will want to be kicked up again as wavelengths shorten.

[RowanBrandon]

What a winter. A track to our south and east and it's still rain.

[tombo82685]

What a winter. A track to our south and east and it's still rain.

Thats not the issue. The issue is that primary goes into western PA before dying and the secondary takes over south of us. The southerly push from the primary does it.

[chubbs]

GEM also has stronger clipper more suppresive set-up at hr 144