easternsnowman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Hahahahaah love this statement!! The GFS has outperformed the euro all winter,where have you been....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The GFS has outperformed the euro all winter,where have you been....lol LOL. As usual, you are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 What torch this has been normal for about 3 years now, I think we're all pretty much used to this and the sad part I don't think anyone sees this changing in the near future. This warmer pattern persists no matter what and even the best we have thought that we will have at least a normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Saturday night's clipper might be the last decent shot at snow for a while for Philly.you saying you don't believe the gfs with consistently showing a snowstorm for the Monday-Wednesday timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 you saying you don't believe the gfs with consistently showing a snowstorm for the Monday-Wednesday timeframe? well it hasn't been consistently showing a snowstorm. Its been waffling back and forth between a winter storm and rainstorm. It all depends on how far south that storm digs. Even the 6z gfs, its mainly rain at philly. Need that storm to dig further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'm with Adam that if you lose the MJO signal, the default pattern will slowly begin to emerge and ultimately take over. There would have to be a pretty good reason to go cold at the end of Feb into Mar. Also, if we continue the trends lately of too much +WPO and not enough split, I'm going to have to surrender and shout, "I was wrong" about Feb 5-10th bringing winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 CFSv2 is predicting that the current MJO will stay at significant amplitude and slowlyyyy propagate to over the Indian Ocean by the end of Feb. That would support more of a cold pattern over the US for the latter half of Feb. In reality, that MJO should be over the West Pacific by mid-to-late Feb. (if it maintains it amplitude and it has already weakened considerably since its Western Hemisphere transit), supporting a potential torch mid-to-late Feb over the US. I'm leaning towards the torch solution, but would really like to see the MJO signal regain sufficient amplitude before going all in. At the moment, I wouldn't trust the MJO as a med-range predictor of extra-tropical circulation. The contradiction doesnt surprise me. I dont pay too much attention to their temperature outlooks. I will say this though, the CFS2 was one of the few dynamical models to bring negative enso conditions to 3.4 last fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 you saying you don't believe the gfs with consistently showing a snowstorm for the Monday-Wednesday timeframe? Antiseptically looking at the GFS's own forecast teleconnection indices for that time period (+nao staying about the same, +pna becoming less positive) its more supportive of the EC's solution than its own and/or it reeks of a northward drift with time. This is the forecast time that you'd love to see the low go off the Georgia coast because its not going to be there 7 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Antiseptically looking at the GFS's own forecast teleconnection indices for that time period (+nao staying about the same, +pna becoming less positive) its more supportive of the EC's solution than its own and/or it reeks of a northward drift with time. This is the forecast time that you'd love to see the low go off the Georgia coast because its not going to be there 7 days later. Yeah I'd agree. The one positive is most models want to show that high nosing across or out of Canada as that system is developing, that could potentially force the initial digging or eventual track to go slightly more south and maybe bring some sort of period of snow, as of now though the Euro would not even bring much of any snow to event NRN NY or SNE. I've been telling everyone its the late 2/2 and early 2/3 clipper right now or bust, we need to hope the GFS is maybe onto something with that trying to do something as it approaches the NRN MA coast but as has been the case all winter the GFS is probably overdigging that one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 06 gfs bombs out the sunday clipper as it pulls away which sets the stage for a more southern solution on the tuesday system, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The contradiction doesnt surprise me. I dont pay too much attention to their temperature outlooks. I will say this though, the CFS2 was one of the few dynamical models to bring negative enso conditions to 3.4 last fall. Yeah, it's coupled with the ocean... alot of good atm.-oceanic feedbacks however tends to overdo ENSO transitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 CFSv2 is predicting that the current MJO will stay at significant amplitude and slowlyyyy propagate to over the Indian Ocean by the end of Feb. That would support more of a cold pattern over the US for the latter half of Feb. In reality, that MJO should be over the West Pacific by mid-to-late Feb. (if it maintains it amplitude and it has already weakened considerably since its Western Hemisphere transit), supporting a potential torch mid-to-late Feb over the US. I'm leaning towards the torch solution, but would really like to see the MJO signal regain sufficient amplitude before going all in. At the moment, I wouldn't trust the MJO as a med-range predictor of extra-tropical circulation. Mike thanks for the post. Just for clarification, do you think the MJO is currently in phase 7 transitioning into phase 8 or do you think it is in phase 1? This wouldn't be the first time this cold season that this BS happened and complicated a situation beyond what it first appeared to look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Yeah I'd agree. The one positive is most models want to show that high nosing across or out of Canada as that system is developing, that could potentially force the initial digging or eventual track to go slightly more south and maybe bring some sort of period of snow, as of now though the Euro would not even bring much of any snow to event NRN NY or SNE. I've been telling everyone its the late 2/2 and early 2/3 clipper right now or bust, we need to hope the GFS is maybe onto something with that trying to do something as it approaches the NRN MA coast but as has been the case all winter the GFS is probably overdigging that one too. Some winters (1995-6 or 2009-10) you can just throw a low within 500 miles of you and it will snow. This winter obviously there is a lot of work just to get it to snow. Like Charlie posted you'd like the first you to bomb faster to push the next baroclinic zone farther south, because there should be a north tendency or escape hatch with the next one. There does not appear to be a pre 50-50 low and the PV looks fairly north. It doesnt look like a shut out for everyone, but latitudinally it looks more problematic the farther south one is in the PHI CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 06 gfs bombs out the sunday clipper as it pulls away which sets the stage for a more southern solution on the tuesday system, I was going to say well its a 06z run, but there was that 18z run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 From yesterday's CPC mjo update. . http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Other forms of subseasonal variability remain active and have contributed to making the MJO signal less clear. This is expected to be temporary and dynamical model MJO index forecasts are in good agreement of renewed eastward propagation during the period. For the U.S., the MJO favors, on average, split flow and ridging across the western U.S. and a mean trough across the east until about mid-February. The MJO would also favor an active southern jet during this similar period. Thereafter, the MJO would support a tendency for a mean trough to develop across the western U.S. near the last week of February. Need to get our mjo working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Yeah, it's coupled with the ocean... alot of good atm.-oceanic feedbacks however tends to overdo ENSO transitions. Yes it seems to have an el nino bias when the summer and fall are in its long term and overzealous with the magnitude of the enso state, but overall an improvement over its predecessor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I was going to say well its a 06z run, but there was that 18z run.... Doesn't look likely now but remember what happened last week. PV held in a lot better than progged 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Doesn't look likely now but remember what happened last week. PV held in a lot better than progged 7 days out. Yes it did and it was an off sounding run that started it. Based on what happened with the last one, the 12z gfs run has to hold serve for validation. Regardless its 7 days away and it wont be the last time I'm wrong about a trend a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The key to that storm as others have mentioned is that clipper needs to bomb out. Also, need to get that nose of high pressure to dig further south and stronger like some of the ensemble members have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 id be carefull with that 6z solution. The last 2 "eventS" nothern strean driven, the models showed the shortwave digging to the TN valley in the med- long range. Then, as we get closer, it doesn't dig as much, and gets sheared out, not amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 id be carefull with that 6z solution. The last 2 "eventS" nothern strean driven, the models showed the shortwave digging to the TN valley in the med- long range. Then, as we get closer, it doesn't dig as much, and gets sheared out, not amplified. The storm that brought the snow on friday was originally suppose to track across the lakes. That shifted south as it recognized a stronger pv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 The storm that brought the snow on friday was originally suppose to track across the lakes. That shifted south as it recognized a stronger pv. and it also showed it digging as far south as the Tennessee valley. But it more or less made it to about Northern Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 and it also showed it digging as far south as the Tennessee valley. But it more or less made it to about Northern Va. you sure you aren't getting that confused with the southern storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 gfs brought back the friday clipper for the region. Actually shows another inch of snow for the region. Need to see if that next clipper low bombs out to help force that baroclinic zone further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 you sure you aren't getting that confused with the southern storm? (assuming we're talking about the high ratio-euro fail clipper) I don't believe so. Where the northern stream was supposed to dip into MT -iowa-ten valley and phase with the southern stream. But instead, it barely clipped iowa to PA/MD. (the shortwave). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 .05 -.1" friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 next weeks bigger storm should be colder on the 12z gfs this run. The baroclinic zone is a good bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 next weeks bigger storm should be colder on the 12z gfs this run. The baroclinic zone is a good bit further south. storm exploding above maine looks to help? 156hr looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 storm exploding above maine looks to help? yes, and in general the whole push of the cold air after tomorrows cutter was a heck of a lot stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 snowing at 162hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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