Heisy Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 This 500mb has tons of potential. Shortwave in central southern Canada would come down to reinforce the cold while we have the southern jet starting to finally crank. Could Feb 7-12th be the time frame for a major snowstorm? We don't have any blocking so we'd need better timing. It kind of reminds me of Feb 2010 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I did get a laugh at some of these photoshops of winter '12-'13 on a headstone..lol. We'll see...I'll always have hope with a split flow look and ridging in NW Canada...sign me up anytime. Even a east based -NAO to "help" keep the PV and cold air source in Canada. Maybe it gets more hostile at towards the end of Feb. I definitely think the end of February has "disaster" written all over it. Energy mets are cancelling week 2 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I like seeing signs of a subtropcial jet and a nice ridge in western canada but that realy doesn't get going until after the 11th or 12th of feb. before then, I don't see much more snow chances for DC to philly than clipper type events. I think we tend to rush things in terms of the MJO. The AO ought to go negative and stay there awhile. You could definitely be right and this would give more weight possibly to the idea of 2/20-2/22 analog period having a better Mid Atlantic shot. However, I think the modeling is really having a tough time here with these cyclonic wave breakers in the N PAC, secondary strat warming to AO response and the two areas of tropical forcing. I wouldn't give up on the 2/7-2/12 period just yet. I agree that the first week is predominately northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 not much on surface 12z gfs through hr189 . edit: 204hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I definitely think the end of February has "disaster" written all over it. Energy mets are cancelling week 2 right now. Some of the strongest analogs are downright warm/snowless late Feb after a possible winter storm 2/20-2/22 through April. But, they do have notable teleconnections that if altered slightly would have meant a different outcome. Like I said this morning, I would probably be going warm too in March if I was in the hot seat but I'm not so sure it will be that simple this year. All of the strongest analogs turn cold as we go into May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Some of the strongest analogs are downright warm/snowless late Feb after a possible winter storm 2/20-2/22 through April. But, they do have notable teleconnections that if altered slightly would have meant a different outcome. Like I said this morning, I would probably be going warm too in March if I was in the hot seat but I'm not so sure it will be that simple this year. All of the strongest analogs turn cold as we go into May. Not sure if this is the case or not, but it has seemed to me that most Mays in the 2000-now period have been much cooler compared to April. We've been in a pattern that has favored generally fast starting springs, then a return of crappy weather in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The first week or so of February looks conducive for mainly New England threats via late blooming short waves embedded in the very progressive northern stream. No big juicers coming out of the southern stream for at least another 7-10 days. The Mid-atlantic's best window will likely come in the Feb 10th-20th period (classic President's day time frame) when the MJO reaches phase 1 and the AO is negative. However, be that as it may, NAO regions continue to look underwhelming going forward, so I'm not optimistic for a storm > 10" anywhere along I-95 (unless that progged pattern changes). SECS criteria might be the most we can muster but it would be greatly appreciated I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 ^^^No arguments from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Yea we get some but the best is to our north where the low is. Also doesn't help that some of the precip gets robbed by the coastal. Need that to track further south the main low. my rookie eyes see it a little further south on 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Not sure if this is the case or not, but it has seemed to me that most Mays in the 2000-now period have been much cooler compared to April. We've been in a pattern that has favored generally fast starting springs, then a return of crappy weather in May. This is totally Phil centric: We have had four consecutive warm (top 33%) April and Mays in a row. To have both months warm, its only occurred 21 times and 9 of them since 1990. Beyond our backyard with May, I dont know. But we have lost the crappier (April in particular) springs of late. If you notice too in spite of how snowy nh coverage is in the winter all of the springs rapidly (become blo normal) have been losing snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 This is totally Phil centric: We have had four consecutive warm (top 33%) April and Mays in a row. To have both months warm, its only occurred 21 times and 9 of them since 1990. Beyond our backyard with May, I dont know. But we have lost the crappier (April in particular) springs of late. If you notice too in spite of how snowy nh coverage is in the winter all of the springs rapidly (become blo normal) have been losing snow cover. I recall they blamed the lack of Sept NH snowcover and rapid summer melt back in the early part of the 2000s to the lowest world atmospheric volacanic ash levels since the 50s...we'll we're back to near or above normal in VA levels now and we still are getting that crazy summer melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'm not good on pcpn event recognition beyond day 7, well maybe day 4, check that make it day 2. . But the CPC 8-14 analog series is not that bad. Very few shutouts, most had light to moderate events. Largest one was the "no surprise" storm in Jan 2000. Today's CPC D+8 and D+11 analog composite maps seem to be trender warmer and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 GFS has a light snow event overnight Saturday into Sunday. About .10 of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Today's CPC D+8 and D+11 analog composite maps seem to be trender warmer and drier. Yeah, other than the surprise storm analog being there, the rest of them are not very exciting. It is befuddling, not exactly the way I was expecting week 2 to trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 If we can keep the cold air source around in February it's showing signs that it will definitely be quiet active. First potential shot will be that clipper for sat night. The following week looks even better, but the question then becomes how much cold air will be around. This would be a good time to have somewhat of a -nao signature to hold that pv at bay over hudson bay. Without that we risk the threat for the cold air to move out and or a bad storm track. The newest update from the roundy mjo shows a pretty robust wave in phases 1-3. Could argue for another shot of some wintry weather, I know HM had touched upon this earlier. My only issue is will the pv have rotted away and moved back north by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Mitchell, my weeklies man, how do they look tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Much warmer week 2. Everything else pretty much the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Mitchell, my weeklies man, how do they look tonight? Not a good run. It does get quite a stormy but yields a pattern that would feature cutters and torches followed by a blast of normal air for a few days then yet another cutter. More signs of a se ridge on this run particularly the last week of Feb which looked well above normal. Not sure of which of these best describe tonight's long range EC. I do think the PV has bit more staying power than this EC weekly run has. Again have limited access for the weeklies, maybe the mean is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 18z gfs didn't look too bad 0z GFS keeps us on the wrong side of the LP's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The euro weeklies have not done well as of late and seem to be confused just like the op is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 The euro weeklies have not done well as of late and seem to be confused just like the op is. Hahahahaah love this statement!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 i suspect like their daddy Dr No they are only wrong when they indicate a period conducive to snow in other words expect a second half of february torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 i suspect like their daddy Dr No they are only wrong when they indicate a period conducive to snow in other words expect a second half of february torch This is what everyone has been predicting for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 i suspect like their daddy Dr No they are only wrong when they indicate a period conducive to snow in other words expect a second half of february torch It seems that way. But from what I read they have not been as accurate as last winter. I think week 2 was initially ice box, then normal, now warm. Good thing we are running out of time. If one wants solace, one could always look at the CFS2 weeklies, they are perpetually cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Northern burbs of Philly look nice for next Tuesday on the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It seems that way. But from what I read they have not been as accurate as last winter. I think week 2 was initially ice box, then normal, now warm. Good thing we are running out of time. If one wants solace, one could always look at the CFS2 weeklies, they are perpetually cold. CFSv2 is predicting that the current MJO will stay at significant amplitude and slowlyyyy propagate to over the Indian Ocean by the end of Feb. That would support more of a cold pattern over the US for the latter half of Feb. In reality, that MJO should be over the West Pacific by mid-to-late Feb. (if it maintains it amplitude and it has already weakened considerably since its Western Hemisphere transit), supporting a potential torch mid-to-late Feb over the US. I'm leaning towards the torch solution, but would really like to see the MJO signal regain sufficient amplitude before going all in. At the moment, I wouldn't trust the MJO as a med-range predictor of extra-tropical circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The thing is, even with a neutral MJO, I think we'd go back to a torch. There's no reason to think that -PDO/-PNA pattern wouldn't return if tropical forcing went away. Hell, just look at the model forecasts for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Saturday night's clipper might be the last decent shot at snow for a while for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Northern burbs of Philly look nice for next Tuesday on the 6z GFS. Euro ensemble is showing this storm as well. A slight shift south would help though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Saturday night's clipper might be the last decent shot at snow for a while for Philly. what about the 5th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.