Rainshadow Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Guys really fantastic discussion. Its going to be an interesting couple of weeks ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Anyone else concerned about the lack of blocking towards Greenland? i Know the MJO looks favorable in association with a more active STJ, but i have my concerns. It seems like the northern stream sw's are digging as much as progged in the medium range, and we get closer to an event, and it's lackluster. Going with the cold and dry idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 once the front blows through next week 12z euro has notta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 once the front blows through next week 12z euro has notta The southern stream is basically non existent and when it is there the northern branch does not phase in, I cannot recall a winter the last 20 years that was this bone dry across the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 once the front blows through next week 12z euro has notta i wouldn't worry. Like HM said the models are going to go all over the place. feb 1-feb 15 looks the best so far this winter for a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 i wouldn't worry. Like HM said the models are going to go all over the place. feb 1-feb 15 looks the best so far this winter for a good storm. marked dates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 marked dates lol well I'm saying that time period. HM has been all over the 5-10 timeframe i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The southern stream is basically non existent and when it is there the northern branch does not phase in, I cannot recall a winter the last 20 years that was this bone dry across the country I dont know where this D-J is ranked so far, but our current winter enso wise is following the same script. It is enso neutral after a string of la nina(s). BTW it also had above normal snow coverage in Siberia in Oct. But that winter was much warmer and unless the second half of Feb torches beyond belief, we aint getting there. I dont know what to make of all of this, latest Euro sure looks northern stream dominated. The previous run though was low confidence because it fell into its bias of hanging back southwest energy. I'm not that good at pegging favorable pcpn patterns, my thoughts are more temperature related, so to that end yeah we should be cold. What we do with that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Anyone else concerned about the lack of blocking towards Greenland? i Know the MJO looks favorable in association with a more active STJ, but i have my concerns. It seems like the northern stream sw's are digging as much as progged in the medium range, and we get closer to an event, and it's lackluster. Going with the cold and dry idea. When and if the STJ gets going, then I'll worry about the blocking upstream. However, I think we have a hellva shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Is it really possible that we hit low 60s next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Is it really possible that we hit low 60s next week? it all depends on the storm coming out of the west. If that digs and phases like the gfs shows, then yes its possible. If its a euro solution where its not as phased then low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Is it really possible that we hit low 60s next week? Not very likely. The GFS timing would have to be on and we would need a mostly sunny day Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 EC weeklies update with my very limited access. Week of Jan 31: cold Week of Feb 7: normal to below normal temps Week of Feb 14: normal temps Week of Feb 21: normal temps Less storminess compared to Monday's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Not very likely. The GFS timing would have to be on and we would need a mostly sunny day Wednesday. It'll depend on wind direction. If the warm front can push through and the wind swings more southwesterly, then 60s are definitely doable regardless of sunshine... many of the 60-degree days recorded in that region during January have occurred on cloudy, showery days just ahead of a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 It'll depend on wind direction. If the warm front can push through and the wind swings more southwesterly, then 60s are definitely doable regardless of sunshine... many of the 60-degree days recorded in that region during January have occurred on cloudy, showery days just ahead of a cold front. Is it possible we could see similar conditions to a couple weeks ago with the heavy fog around the area for most of the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Is it possible we could see similar conditions to a couple weeks ago with the heavy fog around the area for most of the day? That's also possible, which of course would stink. But it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I loved the euro ensembles this afternoon, looked very good in the long range. Some systems start undercutting the persistent western NA ridge around/after the first week of feb (so a split flow) and it looked like the polar vortex influence is trying to relax in the east (though its still a cold east favored pattern)..Until then though i think our best hope is for a stout clipper system to dive down out of the northern stream...maybe the 2nd-4th, but im not holding much hope out of that prospect at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Time to "tie up the loose ends" .... I agree that our brothers in the South need to pay close attention to the first round of southern waves while we freeze our nads off up here. Hey guys, Interesting conversation. Where will these ice storms be setting up? What is the general time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Hey guys, Interesting conversation. Where will these ice storms be setting up? What is the general time frame? Anywhere between Ny state and towards the mid Atlantic states. Anywhere between feb 1st- feb 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Warmth coming up will be muted at the surface... these grounds are really frozen and cold... warm air up and over the top equals freezing rain later Sunday into Monday Morning followed by a few days of dense fog and cloudy conditions temps in the 40's and then perhaps climb towards 50 but I do not think 60 is in reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 With cold air better entrenched in the east, the D10 Euro ensemble mean is much more promising than the Op run (Op run warmer with cutter developing in S plains). As expected the ensemble mean has a weaker reflection of the plains system. Threat would depend on how the Polar and Pacific streams.interact in the developing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 It'll depend on wind direction. If the warm front can push through and the wind swings more southwesterly, then 60s are definitely doable regardless of sunshine... many of the 60-degree days recorded in that region during January have occurred on cloudy, showery days just ahead of a cold front. Today the timing is better for 60's Wednesday with the frontal passage. The last warm up was overdone due to fog and low stratus. We'll see this go around. LLJ/strong southerly flow support 60. It will be interesting to see if my end result today for our forecast has a high of 60 at PHL on Wednesday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Is it possible we could see similar conditions to a couple weeks ago with the heavy fog around the area for most of the day? The 12z GFS today is forecasting a 90 to 100 mph low level jet. Even if its too amped by 10 to 20 percent, fog loses with that kind of wind. Fog would not be the only thing that would lose either. Would be a really nasty day (wind, heavy rain, thunder?) if this comes close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The 12z GFS today is forecasting a 90 to 100 mph low level jet. Even if its too amped by 10 to 20 percent, fog loses with that kind of wind. Fog would not be the only thing that would lose either. Would be a really nasty day (wind, heavy rain, thunder?) if this comes close to verifying. I'll take it for the return of the cold (& snow?) to follow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised if Tuesday underperforms on temps a fair amount. You can have a nice LLJ but in January low sun angle can still prevent enough mixing to get a warm push at the surface. I wouldn't be surprised if Tuesday were a 11:59 PM high near 50. I'm not fully buying 60 on Wednesday (yet) but think it can happen. Upper 50's is pretty reasonable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised if Tuesday underperforms on temps a fair amount. You can have a nice LLJ but in January low sun angle can still prevent enough mixing to get a warm push at the surface. I wouldn't be surprised if Tuesday were a 11:59 PM high near 50. I'm not fully buying 60 on Wednesday (yet) but think it can happen. Upper 50's is pretty reasonable at this point. I was just reading on how the GFS was way too amped with the North Atlantic System by 10-20 millibars in the day 3 range. So if its on a similar track with this one, may cast more uncertainty as to how warm Wed does or does not get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I was just reading on how the GFS was way too amped with the North Atlantic System by 10-20 millibars in the day 3 range. So if its on a similar track with this one, may cast more uncertainty as to how warm Wed does or does not get. Perhaps.... though EC has quite a warm day too. Then again EC messed up the last one so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Regardless if its 50 or 60 Tony's bike in the mud comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Regardless if its 50 or 60 Tony's bike in the mud comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 man, the GFS is cranking out decent LLJ @925-850mbs for the fropa. Up to 60-75knots @ 925 and 75-80kts @ 850mbs. And with a line of showers coming through, fairly heavy, could be looking at some decent gusts in any convective showers, especially with some TT"s around 43. Maybe we can make a thread for it? Nothing like a heavy rain/convective squall line thread to close out jan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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