Medium Range-Long Range thread

[am19psu]

Most the means on the MJO forecast models show the pulse diving  into the COD before reaching Phase 7. So we'll have to get help from somewhere else.

 

Or those models are doing a poor job of forecasting the future phases of the MJO...

[tombo82685]

Most the means on the MJO forecast models show the pulse diving  into the COD before reaching Phase 7. So we'll have to get help from somewhere else.

 

An example

 

pretty much like adam said. Others have it getting into phases 7 and 8. The roundy one has the current wave going into those phases and that wave dies at phase 1ish. While another weak wave forms in phase 2-3 in late january, but its very weak as of right now

 

[chubbs]

GEFS continue to signal a strong -AO with W coast ridging in lala land 

[HM]

I haven't gone to the Aussie site in a while, but is there some sort of cyclicality (ok not a word) beyond ENSO influences when the MJO kind of remains predominately dormant?

I'm not quite sure what you mean but I did lol at "cyclicality." Are you asking if there is basically another reason for the dormancy of MJO besides ENSO state? The answer is definitely yes but I'm not sure any factors are a clear linear effect and/or peer-reviewed, statistically significant. Most MJO theories are still lacking in the scholarly world and are only beginning to tap into the real good stuff (e.g. modeling with a fully resolved stratosphere was better at representing a truer MJO wave than 1 not fully resolved). Until the collective "we" changes our perception of what the MJO really is, theories for its existence will remain poor at best.

[HM]

Yeah that's why I never get a confident feeling about SSW events.  The GLAAM and MJO have more predictable results.

Unfortunately, the stratosphere is not quite at a point yet where we can quickly look at a graph etc. and say, "the following will happen." This lesson is continually taught year after year and I sense the "herd" is pulling back from it instead of embracing it. Once you really get into this stuff with the stratosphere, it becomes clearer on how it feedbacks onto the pattern. I agree that the MJO/GWO stuff is much further ahead to the point where we can almost be robotic about it when applying it to medium range forecasting.

Speaking of which, a GWO orbit through the "El Niño phases" on the way mid-month? Will the MJO survive phase 6? Will Mount Laurel, NJ see any plowable snow? We'll soon find out.

[tombo82685]

Unfortunately, the stratosphere is not quite at a point yet where we can quickly look at a graph etc. and say, "the following will happen." This lesson is continually taught year after year and I sense the "herd" is pulling back from it instead of embracing it. Once you really get into this stuff with the stratosphere, it becomes clearer on how it feedbacks onto the pattern. I agree that the MJO/GWO stuff is much further ahead to the point where we can almost be robotic about it when applying it to medium range forecasting.

Speaking of which, a GWO orbit through the "El Niño phases" on the way mid-month? Will the MJO survive phase 6? Will Mount Laurel, NJ see any plowable snow? We'll soon find out.

 

Say the SSW comes to fruit, and North America is one of the 2 places where it dumps the cold. Are their timeframes for how long these cold events last?> For instance is it like a 2 week cold shot then done? Or does all this rely on factors like the mjo and the mtn torques?

[Quakertown needs snow]

 Will Mount Laurel, NJ see any plowable snow?

not to go off topic , but   

[HM]

Say the SSW comes to fruit, and North America is one of the 2 places where it dumps the cold. Are their timeframes for how long these cold events last?> For instance is it like a 2 week cold shot then done? Or does all this rely on factors like the mjo and the mtn torques?

There is no time frame but I know a lot of people have tried to make a statistical composite of events to answer such questions (in research and in the private industry with all types of time scales). Unfortunately, it isn't that easy because most mid-winter warmings are the result of many variables and therefore so is their time scale. Warmings like we are seeing this winter will spark immediate AO responses/tropospheric feedback and pulsate with each wave 1-2 disturbance. If the vortex completely breaks down, then the AO could stay negative through the end of the met winter basically...but our background state is fighting the PNA so even then I don't think we would stay consistently cold.

The last few winters had an immediate PV strengthening in Feb-Mar after the mid-winter warming, delaying the final warming and bringing a very warm pattern to the CONUS / early ending to winter.

[Mitchell Gaines]

Looks like several bursts of stratospheric warming modeled by the GFS. Usually the cold is delayed a few weeks if comes to the US. 

 

Currently as modeled by GFS 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/

 

Warming event #1- going on now, begin to see signs in US around the 20th IF cold comes to this side of globe. Strongest of all events. Over Siberia. 

Warming event #2 - expected in about four or five days, over eastern US.  

Warming event #3-  Merger over the poles of warming regions 1 and 2 about day 8. This could keep SW warming events influencing our pattern into the first week of Feb.

 

However like with our weather the modeling of the stratosphere also varies from day to day. Notice a lot of potential with the SW's. If they deliver is the question.  I don't know a lot about to the stratosphere to give a sure answer. Though with three warming events granted the last two to a smaller degree I'd lean toward fun ( colder with snow threats) from the 20th of Jan into Feb. EC weeklies looked more in line with this general idea last night as well, different from Monday's torch. 

 

 

 

 

[NJwinter23]

There is no time frame but I know a lot of people have tried to make a statistical composite of events to answer such questions (in research and in the private industry with all types of time scales). Unfortunately, it isn't that easy because most mid-winter warmings are the result of many variables and therefore so is their time scale. Warmings like we are seeing this winter will spark immediate AO responses/tropospheric feedback and pulsate with each wave 1-2 disturbance. If the vortex completely breaks down, then the AO could stay negative through the end of the met winter basically...but our background state is fighting the PNA so even then I don't think we would stay consistently cold.

The last few winters had an immediate PV strengthening in Feb-Mar after the mid-winter warming, delaying the final warming and bringing a very warm pattern to the CONUS / early ending to winter.

 

Any particular reason why this year is like this? Is it because weve seen so much of the stratosphere activity induced by tropospheric blocking throuightout the last 2 months? (isnt that how most/all stratospheric warming events start anyway though). Is it simply because our base state is a neutral/slightly positive AO after the recent 40 day -AO episode, that the upcoming period goes negative more readily/immediately in response to the SSW (versus the 2006s or the 2012s where we were starting at a +2 or +3 strat tornado)?.. I may be confusing myself here, but with regards to the current significant event unfolding, it does seem more immediate on the -AO (assuming ensembles are right) than the "standard" 20-30 day response most people expect when we see these events unfold.

[Rainshadow]

Unfortunately, the stratosphere is not quite at a point yet where we can quickly look at a graph etc. and say, "the following will happen." This lesson is continually taught year after year and I sense the "herd" is pulling back from it instead of embracing it. Once you really get into this stuff with the stratosphere, it becomes clearer on how it feedbacks onto the pattern. I agree that the MJO/GWO stuff is much further ahead to the point where we can almost be robotic about it when applying it to medium range forecasting.

Speaking of which, a GWO orbit through the "El Niño phases" on the way mid-month? Will the MJO survive phase 6? Will Mount Laurel, NJ see any plowable snow? We'll soon find out.

 

HM,

 

Thanks for the info and the MJO answer, you understood by make up words as I went along question. I don't know if that's a good thing for you.

 

As for the last questions, I'm old enough to remember when the original Batman shows used to end with "similar" questions.

 

I guess we all are going to have to tune in the same bat time and same bat channel next week to find out. 

 

Through week2 still looks like the angle of the cold is going to favor places farther to the west setting us to be in the battleground area.  I'll keep the pizza boxes on our plow for now (reverse jinx) .

[Harbourton]

HM,

 

Thanks for the info and the MJO answer, you understood by make up words as I went along question. I don't know if that's a good thing for you.

 

As for the last questions, I'm old enough to remember when the original Batman shows used to end with "similar" questions.

 

I guess we all are going to have to tune in the same bat time and same bat channel next week to find out. 

 

Through week2 still looks like the angle of the cold is going to favor places farther to the west setting us to be in the battleground area.  I'll keep the pizza boxes on our plow for now (reverse jinx) .

 

This seems vaguely familiar dating back to Wright weather.   

[phlwx]

Euro Ens is trending troughier in the East after 1/16.  Signs of a -NAO popping but it's not robust yet.

 

Euro is favoring more Lakes for core of any cold that does come down.

[Rainshadow]

This seems vaguely familiar dating back to Wright weather.   

 

 

Still seems the case with week2 on the NAEFS this morning, they are big percentages cold for the western half of the conus.

[NaoPos]

1 thing that i am concerned about going forward is the position of the EPAC ridge. How Far East can it progress? if it stays offshore, where the eastern half of it keeps a NW to SE flow over the immediate coast, the cold air will have a tough time spilling east of the MS river. We need it to slide east, as shown below, to really get the cold to us. ( just using this map as an illustration of the western ridge, ignore everything else, no matter how sexy it looks on the ATL side of things.)

If that ridge stays offshore, the SE ridge will persist a little longer.

Ps, 12z GFS says what -NAO? ill displace a piece of the PV over greenland. lol.

[SnowGoose69]

1 thing that i am concerned about going forward is the position of the EPAC ridge. How Far East can it progress? if it stays offshore, where the eastern half of it keeps a NW to SE flow over the immediate coast, the cold air will have a tough time spilling east of the MS river. We need it to slide east, as shown below, to really get the cold to us. ( just using this map as an illustration of the western ridge, ignore everything else, no matter how sexy it looks on the ATL side of things.)

If that ridge stays offshore, the SE ridge will persist a little longer.

The GFS is now stating to catch on to the slower progression of the trough to the East Coast.  Notice today's 12Z run has cutter one which really does not do much, cutter 2 gets things closer, then cutter 3 puts us in business.  The idea that DT/Allan Huffman are floating that it may be more the 17th-22nd before we really hit the deep freeze east of 90W may be very right.  At the same time though, notice how the 8th-10th which at one point were supposed to be blistering warm north of 40N now are coming in more cooler than 3-4 days ago,

[NaoPos]

and for my 6,000th post!

12z GFS ..same time period as the above 0z GFS:

more favorable PNA ridge, less favorable NAO.

some Hope going forward:

the GEFS are not surprising with the amplitude, BUT the ECM gives us hope that we can make it to phase 7. maybe..just maybe:

[tombo82685]

The GFS is now stating to catch on to the slower progression of the trough to the East Coast.  Notice today's 12Z run has cutter one which really does not do much, cutter 2 gets things closer, then cutter 3 puts us in business.  The idea that DT/Allan Huffman are floating that it may be more the 17th-22nd before we really hit the deep freeze east of 90W may be very right.  At the same time though, notice how the 8th-10th which at one point were supposed to be blistering warm north of 40N now are coming in more cooler than 3-4 days ago,

 

 

Yea i have noticed that on the last few runs for later next week with that first storm. Their is modelled to be a strong high pressure, and the 6z runs only had  highs in the mid to upper 30s with a cold rain. This run is even colder. Its actually ice up in the pocs.

[Rainshadow]

and for my 6,000th post!

12z GFS ..same time period as the above 0z GFS:

more favorable PNA ridge, less favorable NAO.

some Hope going forward:

the GEFS are not surprising with the amplitude, BUT the ECM gives us hope that we can make it to phase 7. maybe..just maybe:

 

The GFS is markedly faster with us getting to colder phases than most of the other models.  Looks like as has been posted the GFS slow down has started, its pushed back the Wed system to later in the week as the EC has had for a couple of days.

[Rainshadow]

The GFS is now stating to catch on to the slower progression of the trough to the East Coast.  Notice today's 12Z run has cutter one which really does not do much, cutter 2 gets things closer, then cutter 3 puts us in business.  The idea that DT/Allan Huffman are floating that it may be more the 17th-22nd before we really hit the deep freeze east of 90W may be very right.  At the same time though, notice how the 8th-10th which at one point were supposed to be blistering warm north of 40N now are coming in more cooler than 3-4 days ago,

 

 

Yup until the NAEFS gets colder along the east coast, its more central/western centric into the middle of the month. 

[NaoPos]

12z euro is mehh.....

[SnowGoose69]

12z euro is mehh.....

 

Its clueless on that SE ridge, never going to happen with that block it has over Greenland at Day 10...well it may happen, but it will be a 1994 SE ridge.

[ChescoWx]

Now that was a great SE ridge!

Its clueless on that SE ridge, never going to happen with that block it has over Greenland at Day 10...well it may happen, but it will be a 1994 SE ridge.

[Rainshadow]

Its clueless on that SE ridge, never going to happen with that block it has over Greenland at Day 10...well it may happen, but it will be a 1994 SE ridge.

 

 

Euro gets a $1 bonus every time it builds a ridge over Greenland whether it verifies or not, at day 10 I'd go with the SE ridge over the Greenland ridge;  skill scores for PNAs greater than skill scores for NAOs.  NAEFS continues to slowly edge cold air mass east.

[tombo82685]

anything wintry, outside tonight before the 20th of january, consider it a gift.

[Rainshadow]

anything wintry, outside tonight before the 20th of january, consider it a git.

 

This probably will work as well as most of my musings beyond day 0.5, but the PGA Tour can't get started because of horrible conditions on Kapalua. Round 1 is now Sunday.  Last time it was this dreadful was in 2006. Not much of a Jan that winter either, but there was that one massive Saturday storm in Feb.   

[tombo82685]

This probably will work as well as most of my musings beyond day 0.5, but the PGA Tour can't get started because of horrible conditions on Kapalua. Round 1 is now Sunday.  Last time it was this dreadful was in 2006. Not much of a Jan that winter either, but there was that one massive Saturday storm in Feb.   

 

 

i remember that storm. Had about a foot or so in dhizzle. Thundersnow that sunday morning with that intense band that swung through. They had a weenie deform band through central montco and bucks down through chester co that dropped up to 20 inches. Then, a week later that friday and saturday it was in the 60s.

[Rainshadow]

i remember that storm. Had about a foot or so in dhizzle. Thundersnow that sunday morning with that intense band that swung through. They had a weenie deform band through central montco and bucks down through chester co that dropped up to 20 inches. Then, a week later that friday and saturday it was in the 60s.

 

 

Yeah that was pretty much it for Jan - Mar, kind of a 1982-83 reboot.

[SnowGoose69]

This is very 88-89ish right now so far, certainly did not get the cold in December that 1988 had but the cold air just buried into the West/Central US in late January 89 and never really came East, it did in pieces at times but everything from timing and storm track for Feb/March just worked out miserably for the East Coast minus the Mid-Atlantic areas.

[tombo82685]

One thing that worries me which i see some of the models doing is how stubborn that pac ridge is moving eastward. It seems like it will come east to a point then backs off. Thats going to be the true factor that needs to be watched for wintry weather. I think that is the major feature and would trump a -nao.