chubbs Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Last nights models were all over the place in handling the PV. GEFS sent most to Europe. Others retained more in canada but in different locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 lol @ cancelling winter. It's Jan 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Already seeing a southern shift with the models for next Friday. The models may continue to shift it further to the south taking into account the degree of arctic air the system will have to bulldoze through. Canadian leading the charge on this point. Even with a northern track it may hard for the Poconos and areas like High point NJ to get above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 12z gfs 0 line at 850 is not that far away for next friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Nothing has changed from yesterday as far as I'm concerned. This clipper will continue to trend a little bit stronger Monday, possibly enough to bring light snow or snow showers to the area. Next week is definitely a wintry threat, even down here into the Delaware Valley. I'd like to see the ECMWF give us some love on today's 12z. After the "relaxation" we should go right back to a PNA...but this time with a STJ. Mwhaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Check this out: at the 600k level, watch the dying PV on our side of the pole produce an anticyclonic wave breaker across the West-Based NAO regions / northern Canada. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ecpv.php?alert=1&level=600&forecast=all&lng=eng The ECMWF attempts to congeal both PVs toward the end of the run but the one on our side dies, allowing the Alaskan High to build south and eastward. These are very promising signs today to get the NAO more favorable going into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Nothing has changed from yesterday as far as I'm concerned. This clipper will continue to trend a little bit stronger Monday, possibly enough to bring light snow or snow showers to the area. Next week is definitely a wintry threat, even down here into the Delaware Valley. I'd like to see the ECMWF give us some love on today's 12z. After the "relaxation" we should go right back to a PNA...but this time with a STJ. Mwhaha As always, your input is mucho appreciated. (Especially when it's positive). Are you thinking the STJ comes back bc of the MJO progressing towards phase 8-1? It seems to me, that the STJ has been fairly active, and the northern jet is just disconnected from the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 As always, your input is mucho appreciated. (Especially when it's positive). Are you thinking the STJ comes back bc of the MJO progressing towards phase 8-1? It seems to me, that the STJ has been fairly active, and the northern jet is just disconnected from the flow. Wrong Mike Myers character, you need a picture of Dr. Evil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 As always, your input is mucho appreciated. (Especially when it's positive). Are you thinking the STJ comes back bc of the MJO progressing towards phase 8-1? It seems to me, that the STJ has been fairly active, and the northern jet is just disconnected from the flow. Hey no problem; I'm glad to finally be more positive this year. I've just about had enough punting. I would have reversed your last sentence: the northern jet has been very strong and the STJ which was connected (during the +AO and amplification of the mean flow) became disconnected somewhat. Between the poleward propagation of the strong westerly AAM in the Tropics and gradual take over of forcing in the phase 8-1-2 area, I suspect an improvement in the STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 the clipper on the euro is dry for here. It still develops the miller b off shore though and extends an inverted trof that affects nyc-sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 the euro already looks much better for the later week threat regardless of the outcome, the low is a lot further south already. Much higher hgts across greenland and northern canada holding the pv in longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 the euro already looks much better for the later week threat regardless of the outcome, the low is a lot further south already. Much higher hgts across greenland and northern canada holding the pv in longer. about a 200 mile shift South this run at 168 compared to last nights euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 12z euro is way south now, tracks the low over m/d line... snow breaking out hr 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 hr 174 snow m/d line north...looks like a 3-6 inch hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 hr 174 snow central del north and 295 west...looks like a 3-6 inch hit I'll gladly trade the clipper for the D7 system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 30mb warm anomaly getting destroyed over the Equator. Glad to hear the euro is coming around for next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 verbatim phl would start as snow but would probably flip. This is a latitude storm, further north the better. Once above the pa turnpike i think its all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 30mb warm anomaly getting destroyed over the Equator. Glad to hear the euro is coming around for next week! HM, what does that mean when the warmer anomalies over the equator lesson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 nice hit on the euro... track is about johnstown pa to ac.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 HM, what does that mean when the warmer anomalies over the equator lesson? MJO suppression I think. Edit: Misread you, MJO enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 HM, what does that mean when the warmer anomalies over the equator lesson? basic thunderstorm physics.. that warm layer is causing a cap, limiting the MJO. as the tropics cool, convection can start firing. Maybe im wrong though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 HM, what does that mean when the warmer anomalies over the equator lesson? It means the tropical forcing will have an easier time advancing eastward. The Walker Cell battle going on is quite intense if you are a geek like me and find it awesome. The anticyclone west of Hawaii is battling the cyclone east of it; meanwhile, the stratospheric warming is helping to cool the Tropics more and more each day. Eventually, I think the old regime loses. I also think the -NAO anomaly will trend stronger and stronger into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 basic thunderstorm physics.. that warm layer is causing a cap, limiting the MJO. as the tropics cool, convection can start firing. Maybe im wrong though? if thats the case wouldn't that argue for a rebirth of the southern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 just a little snipit off the euro at hr 174 for the storm Fantastic run and thanks for the snipit. A perfect system on a fitting day. I may be able to reach and finally exceed my 11/6-7 total! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 verbatim phl would start as snow but would probably flip. This is a latitude storm, further north the better. Once above the pa turnpike i think its all snow. Yup, A little futher south would be better. Still a huge improvement and a lot of time to shift around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Preliminary GWO numbers are pretty freakin' awesome: 358 2013 1 9 -0.07 1.98 20 4.5 2.0 359 2013 1 10 0.17 1.47 20 4.5 1.5 360 2013 1 11 0.29 0.65 25 5.5 0.7 361 2013 1 12 0.36 0.70 25 5.5 0.8 362 2013 1 13 0.48 0.76 25 5.5 0.9 363 2013 1 14 0.55 0.69 25 5.5 0.9 364 2013 1 15 0.64 0.27 25 5.5 0.7 365 2013 1 16 0.64 0.02 30 6.5 0.6 366 2013 1 17 0.79 3.04 20 4.5 3.1 Strong strong +AAM tendency on prelim stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 tom play by play , thank you. let's hope this pans out by still week away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Preliminary GWO numbers are pretty freakin' awesome: 358 2013 1 9 -0.07 1.98 20 4.5 2.0 359 2013 1 10 0.17 1.47 20 4.5 1.5 360 2013 1 11 0.29 0.65 25 5.5 0.7 361 2013 1 12 0.36 0.70 25 5.5 0.8 362 2013 1 13 0.48 0.76 25 5.5 0.9 363 2013 1 14 0.55 0.69 25 5.5 0.9 364 2013 1 15 0.64 0.27 25 5.5 0.7 365 2013 1 16 0.64 0.02 30 6.5 0.6 366 2013 1 17 0.79 3.04 20 4.5 3.1 Strong strong +AAM tendency on prelim stuff. I may be wrong on this but the positive correlates to better shot of blockiness and colder air considering all during the summer and fall it was negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 It means the tropical forcing will have an easier time advancing eastward. The Walker Cell battle going on is quite intense if you are a geek like me and find it awesome. The anticyclone west of Hawaii is battling the cyclone east of it; meanwhile, the stratospheric warming is helping to cool the Tropics more and more each day. Eventually, I think the old regime loses. I also think the -NAO anomaly will trend stronger and stronger into Feb. I think you are preaching to the choir here. Thanks for contributing to the discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I may be wrong on this but the positive correlates to better shot of blockiness and colder air considering all during the summer and fall it was negative. Have learned a lot in this thread the past couple of weeks. A quick google search indicates: more el nino-like, stronger southern stream, lower heights in SE. further south storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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