SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Yeah I went back thru the JMA site, couldn't find anything either. Only one that came close to that description was winter of 1924-25. I posted last night in NYC thread we may need the Atlantic phase (name avoids me right now, AMO? AAAM?) to change because I think these -PDOs/La Ninas are gonna be a pain the next 2 decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I posted last night in NYC thread we may need the Atlantic phase (name avoids me right now, AMO? AAAM?) to change because I think these -PDOs/La Ninas are gonna be a pain the next 2 decades. Yeah the AMO. The two biggest snow decades in PHL were when it was negative. If its a true 30 year cycle we have about 10 more years to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 You and HM certainly beat to the same drum when it comes to that. And I dont blame you. I get what they mean by it, but don't all storms have southwest flow aloft? ..Here's a "swfe" for ya http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/us0211.php Well when you get all sorts of types of storms that give you snow, you have to have some way to distinguish them. There are SWFEs and SWFE redevelopers you know.... there's clippers, clipper bombes, Miller Bs, Miller A's, windex events, OES, retrogrades, inverted troughs, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Anyone having issues with Allan's site with the 0z euro ENS? Ensemble mean and operational are close for Monday night. Most spread northeast of center. Next system slightly slower, more diffuse, not surprising at the range, cuts it across the lakes through New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Ensemble mean and operational are close for Monday night. Most spread northeast of center. Next system slightly slower, more diffuse, not surprising at the range, cuts it across the lakes through New England. I think this should be established to. This isn't a cutter, its just a northern stream disturbance that drops out of canada and just moves west to east. It doesn't go from the south and cuts to the lakes, though if it pans out like the models show it will act like a cutter because we would be to the south and have southerly winds. I still like at least some wintry precip with that or some kind of redevelopment. Especially the antecedent air mass is very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Ensemble mean and operational are close for Monday night. Most spread northeast of center. Next system slightly slower, more diffuse, not surprising at the range, cuts it across the lakes through New England. Thanks Tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 strong signal on the hr216 ECM ENS ? edit* on 2nd look, not a bad look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 strong signal on the hr216 ECM ENS ? edit* on 2nd look, not a bad look.. The pattern would probably relax after that storm based off those maps. The pv has retreated north with another forming over alaska. That mild air would belly east as that trof off the west coast comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 The pattern would probably relax after that storm based off those maps. The pv has retreated north with another forming over alaska. That mild air would belly east as that trof off the west coast comes in.verbatim, of course. but im strictly looking at the threat on here, not the after pattern. This winter has been $hitty enough.although, there seems to be a lot of volatility in the med- long range guidance. between the MJO forecast and Strat event ongoing, id take everything with a grain of salt. looking at these maps from the CPC on the strat, would be hard to see a PV reform over alaska. Granted, i haven't the slightest idea how the strat forecasts and its downstream effects affect us. Just putting that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The pattern would probably relax after that storm based off those maps. The pv has retreated north with another forming over alaska. That mild air would belly east as that trof off the west coast comes in. The GEFS agree for somewhat of a moderation, but that moderation is quite transient, and lasts only about two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Here's another look at D9 Euro. Has week low in Iowa on D8. Looks half decent but we could be too far south depending on how system evolved between D8+9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 0z euro for next friday made me chuckle, solid precip heading our way but then dry slots around entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The pattern would probably relax after that storm based off those maps. The pv has retreated north with another forming over alaska. That mild air would belly east as that trof off the west coast comes in. Yeah NAEFS week2 is warm again centered near the end of Jan. Current MJO does not support a cold pattern (yet), but given how its still strong, there is no reason to believe we wont be in favorable for cold MJO phases starting Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 0z euro for next friday made me chuckle, solid precip heading our way but then dry slots around entire area That would be rain, the storm is far north, the southerly push of winds would warm the bl up. In fact it has highs in the low to mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The euro keeps trending colder for next weeks arctic blast. Has lows below 10 in the city. So the burbs definitely single numbers and i would imagine pocs below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 That would be rain, the storm is far north, the southerly push of winds would warm the bl up. In fact it has highs in the low to mid 40s. yes i saw that so i didn't use the "S" word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 GEFS is mild on D9 sending the last of the cold air to Europe . However rebuilds W coast ridge starting D11 setting up another cool period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The euro keeps trending colder for next weeks arctic blast. Has lows below 10 in the city. So the burbs definitely single numbers and i would imagine pocs below 0. man if we had snow pack with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 man if we had snow pack with this you still might, if that clipper can trend a little better. even .1-.25 qpf with that cold air could turn to 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Anyone have the Euro Ens not available on Raleigh's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Anyone have the Euro Ens not available on Raleigh's site about 8 posts up..^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Gfs has nothing for that clipper next week. Unless its less then .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Tom, green tagged wonder, with the D9 Euro having a signal for something that'll never happen next weekend and a warm up thereafter as the PV retreats back north across the Pole...Meteorological winter entering its last third....when do you sound the Winter cancel alarm? Seems some already have their finger on the button so to speak in other subforums. Do you see ANY hope in the LR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 The clipper on the 25th shifted south on the 12z gfs yet again.. compared to the 0z gfs, pretty decent shift. there's some backside energry diving in beind that clipper that almost produces on the coast, but truncation really messes with it. something to watch over time. 12z on the left, 0z on the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Tom, green tagged wonder, with the D9 Euro having a signal for something that'll never happen next weekend and a warm up thereafter as the PV retreats back north across the Pole...Meteorological winter entering its last third....when do you sound the Winter cancel alarm? Seems some already have their finger on the button so to speak in other subforums. Do you see ANY hope in the LR? Their is plenty of hope in the long Range. Its a brief relaxation. The mjo is heading into phase 8 and probably will circle around into phases 1 and 2. February should be stormy and it looks as though the cold will be on our side also with the pv around hudson bay. Their is also good support as adam and hm alluded to that we get a good positive pna development coupled with the stratosphere warming. Granted i don't think we will get normal snowfall, but their will be winter threats as we head into next week and into february. When do i cancel winter, right after presidents day because i hate march snow. They never stick around and a warmup is usually right around the corner. Everything will all be put on mute in weenies eyes becasue they will be glued to every run of the euro and gfs and cancel winter and uncancel it a 1000 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Gfs has nothing for that clipper next week. Unless its less then .05 the operational doesn't but the ensembles are more enthused. the mean brings .1 into nyc. and less than that for e pa and se pa, del and nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The clipper on the 25th shifted south on the 12z gfs yet again.. compared to the 0z gfs, pretty decent shift. there's some backside energry diving in beind that clipper that almost produces on the coast, but truncation really messes with it. something to watch over time. 12z on the left, 0z on the right. Plenty of uncertainty with that system. Could get a good outcome if the PV holds together in SE Canada.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The clipper on the 25th shifted south on the 12z gfs yet again.. compared to the 0z gfs, pretty decent shift. there's some backside energry diving in beind that clipper that almost produces on the coast, but truncation really messes with it. something to watch over time. 12z on the left, 0z on the right. Plenty of uncertainty with that system. Could get a good outcome if the PV holds together in SE Canada.. the gefs are much more bullish on this with holding the pv around. The mean looks like it takes that storm under us now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 The clipper on the 25th shifted south on the 12z gfs yet again.. compared to the 0z gfs, pretty decent shift. there's some backside energry diving in beind that clipper that almost produces on the coast, but truncation really messes with it. something to watch over time. 12z on the left, 0z on the right. Plenty of uncertainty with that system. Could get a good outcome if the PV holds together in SE Canada.. I think it's gonna come down to how much the PV can dig. I forget who, maybe HM said it, but they wouldn't be surprised if the shortwave coming outta Alaska would trend stronger. It's been a long week and my sleep schedule hasn't been the greatest, so I apologize that I can't recollect who said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 The clipper on the 25th shifted south on the 12z gfs yet again.. compared to the 0z gfs, pretty decent shift. there's some backside energry diving in beind that clipper that almost produces on the coast, but truncation really messes with it. something to watch over time. 12z on the left, 0z on the right. Plenty of uncertainty with that system. Could get a good outcome if the PV holds together in SE Canada.. the gefs are much more bullish on this with holding the pv around. The mean looks like it takes that storm under us now. Here's the GGEM for today: I'd say give It till Monday, and maybe we can make a thread for this? Or sooner if we want to keep this strictly Synoptics and not threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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