HM Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Just a quick post; I have to run... I am going to be a little more optimistic today than I have been lately. First of all, the system that sparks the "near-miss" coastal early next week is located up in Alaska. It will drop down through Canada over the next few days before amplifying into the Midwest / Northeast. I know I have been nay-saying it for the most part but I do think the s/w will trend stronger as we get closer to the event. It may be enough to bring snow showers or even some light snow to the area as it passes through. I think it will be able to clip eastern New England, but the obvious uncertainty applies. Finally, I think the 1/25 system will be a "SWFE" as the New Englanders call it and it may bring most of the area a front end snow/mix before a change to rain/dry slot. I don't think it will be all rain and a simple cutter. I'll be back later... I didn't get a sleet pellet with the last event...but can I get a snowflake tonight?!!?! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah I'd rather have a zonal pattern with a -NAO than a very positive PNA with supression of systems. At least you would have a chance at something. Unfortunately there is no serious -NAO in the cards. East-Based NAO EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Just a quick post; I have to run... I am going to be a little more optimistic today than I have been lately. First of all, the system that sparks the "near-miss" coastal early next week is located up in Alaska. It will drop down through Canada over the next few days before amplifying into the Midwest / Northeast. I know I have been nay-saying it for the most part but I do think the s/w will trend stronger as we get closer to the event. It may be enough to bring snow showers or even some light snow to the area as it passes through. I think it will be able to clip eastern New England, but the obvious uncertainty applies. Finally, I think the 1/25 system will be a "SWFE" as the New Englanders call it and it may bring most of the area a front end snow/mix before a change to rain/dry slot. I don't think it will be all rain and a simple cutter. I'll be back later... I didn't get a sleet pellet with the last event...but can I get a snowflake tonight?!!?! haha Thanks for your thoughts HM. Question: What is causing the PV to just move on out? The euro showed some ridging up over greenland, wouldn't you think that would help lock it in place a little better. Also, what impacts would that clipper have if it bombs out? Wouldn't that reinforce the riding into greenland holding that PV around hudson bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I hate "swfe." It's overrunning. So long as the polar vortex remains split, we could get a -nao. But the nina-ish se ridge will need to be broken down first by something (Hmmm....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 1. Major issues with the 12z euro today . 2. My feeling is the Friday thing next week will trend colder as we get closer. Still stuff to rain with a low track that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I hate "swfe." It's overrunning. So long as the polar vortex remains split, we could get a -nao. But the nina-ish se ridge will need to be broken down first by something (Hmmm....) You and HM certainly beat to the same drum when it comes to that. And I dont blame you. I get what they mean by it, but don't all storms have southwest flow aloft? ..Here's a "swfe" for ya http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/us0211.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Just a quick post; I have to run... I am going to be a little more optimistic today than I have been lately. First of all, the system that sparks the "near-miss" coastal early next week is located up in Alaska. It will drop down through Canada over the next few days before amplifying into the Midwest / Northeast. I know I have been nay-saying it for the most part but I do think the s/w will trend stronger as we get closer to the event. It may be enough to bring snow showers or even some light snow to the area as it passes through. I think it will be able to clip eastern New England, but the obvious uncertainty applies. Finally, I think the 1/25 system will be a "SWFE" as the New Englanders call it and it may bring most of the area a front end snow/mix before a change to rain/dry slot. I don't think it will be all rain and a simple cutter. I'll be back later... I didn't get a sleet pellet with the last event...but can I get a snowflake tonight?!!?! haha I truthfully feel bad for you now that this southern storm will officially sandwich you in the screw zone for the winter. Hasn't been anything great up here in sw CT this winter but at least i've had some nickle and dimes (1.5" of slop the other night). This 1/25 threat depicted on the models kind of reminds me of that minor ice event we called last January. Not sure if you remember when some 1994 dates were popping up on the analogs, right after the "coldest" shot of the winter swung through and a similar northern stream dominated system moved in...It was a **** event in general and brought some ice to the interior due to the cold antecedent airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 1. Major issues with the 12z euro today . 2. My feeling is the Friday thing next week will trend colder as we get closer. Still stuff to rain with a low track that far north. I know you get a muted down version of the weeklies. From what i read it develops a nice pna ridge for february. Not sure on the temperatures, but i would assume normal to below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You and HM certainly beat to the same drum when it comes to that. And I dont blame you. I get what they mean by it, but don't all storms have southwest flow aloft? ..Here's a "swfe" for ya http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/us0211.php I hate "swfe." It's overrunning. So long as the polar vortex remains split, we could get a -nao. But the nina-ish se ridge will need to be broken down first by something (Hmmm....) I think Adam and I have the same sense of humor. Poor Chris would have to listen to me rant in the office about how dumb the term "southwest flow event" is to describe a weather system in the ....wait for it...westerlies upstream of a trough. lol I see another signal at 10mb late Jan ...call it a secondary wave 1 Alaskan High breaker....which could combine with the developing split flow / STJ and PNA spike to bring another shot fo anomalous cold in early Feb. I'm really starting to like Feb 5-10 for a snowstorm more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks for your thoughts HM. Question: What is causing the PV to just move on out? The euro showed some ridging up over greenland, wouldn't you think that would help lock it in place a little better. Also, what impacts would that clipper have if it bombs out? Wouldn't that reinforce the riding into greenland holding that PV around hudson bay? There is a ...let's call it... a "log flume" of accelerated vorticity in the upper tropo/lower strat from eastern Canada into the North Atlantic under the -AO anomaly. Without a strong -NAO, this channel will steer low anomalies right on out; but, the PV will expand to remain over favorable land and changing anomaly pattern to one that is retrograding. As lows form lee-rockies style, this will pull things west again, probably leading to some sort of interior bomb. If the clipper bombs, the heights will lower towards it and possibly help pull the Arctic Heights east more. But there will be forces acting on both sides to expand the polar field, which is a good thing...the PV will become less of a buzz saw with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I truthfully feel bad for you now that this southern storm will officially sandwich you in the screw zone for the winter. Hasn't been anything great up here in sw CT this winter but at least i've had some nickle and dimes (1.5" of slop the other night). This 1/25 threat depicted on the models kind of reminds me of that minor ice event we called last January. Not sure if you remember when some 1994 dates were popping up on the analogs, right after the "coldest" shot of the winter swung through and a similar northern stream dominated system moved in...It was a **** event in general and brought some ice to the interior due to the cold antecedent airmass My biggest event remains 11/6-7 but even that really screwed me too if you think about it (what maybe 30 miles east of here if that had 10+ inches?). Oh well man...I'll make up for it down here when NJ "tornado season" hits and we get a smattering of EF0-EF1's in S NJ, lol. I definitely remember that call. You had good intuition with that one. But the comparison only works if the modeled solution happens as is but I suspect further changes. Also, the cold air source this is running into is a tad better than last year, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 This Euro run seems amped up... It started with tonight and I guess never stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I think Adam and I have the same sense of humor. Poor Chris would have to listen to me rant in the office about how dumb the term "southwest flow event" is to describe a weather system in the ....wait for it...westerlies upstream of a trough. lol I see another signal at 10mb late Jan ...call it a secondary wave 1 Alaskan High breaker....which could combine with the developing split flow / STJ and PNA spike to bring another shot fo anomalous cold in early Feb. I'm really starting to like Feb 5-10 for a snowstorm more and more. Haha it was just one of many rants I got to enjoy...I think I see what you are talking about gathering from Eurasia at 10mb late in the gfs op runs (which have done a great job picking up on these warmings in the long range). Meanwhile another major jolt will be realized further down in the 50mb level over the next few days...Hits just keep on coming at all levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Hearing the weeklies have a pretty decent PNA ridge? Anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 My biggest event remains 11/6-7 but even that really screwed me too if you think about it (what maybe 30 miles east of here if that had 10+ inches?). Oh well man...I'll make up for it down here when NJ "tornado season" hits and we get a smattering of EF0-EF1's in S NJ, lol. I definitely remember that call. You had good intuition with that one. But the comparison only works if the modeled solution happens as is but I suspect further changes. Also, the cold air source this is running into is a tad better than last year, no? Well if I were at my rents in Holmdel I too would have been "screwed" in November with only 5.5" and that 13" dump 10 miles south lol..tucked into the northeast screwed corner in Monmouth County What a ridiculous weather year for Freehold, NJ though..They got absolutely smoked in severe weather season, Had to be like 3 microbursts that hit them...You didnt make out too bad yourself this past severe season from what I remember (aside from missing the derecho by a few miles which was definitely a good thing),.. So yes you are bound to make up for it come the dangerous "tornado season" in NJ lol. I cant see NARR for 2012 as I was trying to look up last January, but you are definitely right in this airmass will be far more impressive than that of last year..I believe the dates were the 13th-16th and highs were only in the upper 30s in DC, upper 20s to near freezing in NYC for the 2 days preceding that system (I honestly didn't remember it even got that cold last winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I know you get a muted down version of the weeklies. From what i read it develops a nice pna ridge for february. Not sure on the temperatures, but i would assume normal to below? Yeah. The rest of Jan is blah , trough in the east returns for Feb. Looks cooler than normal but dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Yeah. The rest of Jan is blah , trough in the east returns for Feb. Looks cooler than normal but dry. Wow. More fuel for the banter thread Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 so much for cold locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 FYI -- the 0z Euro is now "re-showing" the clipper for Monday PM -- low is south of Philly. No precip on there but it does show a closed surface reflection. Not sure if it will amount or trend any direction down the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I know this may be a little too long range, but does anyone see a la nina developing for the spring and summer? Could that mean a pretty warm spring/summer around these parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 I know this may be a little too long range, but does anyone see a la nina developing for the spring and summer? Could that mean a pretty warm spring/summer around these parts? I wish this was banter, but that's pretty much the norm. Looking @ the sub equatorial temp anomies, looks like a La Niña could be in the works, and an east based one at that. -PDO FTL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 FYI -- the 0z Euro is now "re-showing" the clipper for Monday PM -- low is south of Philly. No precip on there but it does show a closed surface reflection. Not sure if it will amount or trend any direction down the line... it actually does have precip with it that gets into the region. Which i never noticed before was the increments start at .05. But if you look at the accum qpf map for that time its an increase in precip over the whole state. Actually brings .1 or greater for phl north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Don't have the precip maps, but it's closer to the euro than the euro is to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Don't have the precip maps, but it's closer to the euro than the euro is to the GFS. It's on ewall prob a tenth or so of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 it actually does have precip with it that gets into the region. Which i never noticed before was the increments start at .05. But if you look at the accum qpf map for that time its an increase in precip over the whole state. Actually brings .1 or greater for phl north aw...but too light to get "noted" on the 6 hr maps. probably will trend a bit more moist to generate some .1 over 6 hr type stuff....yay for 1-2"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I know this may be a little too long range, but does anyone see a la nina developing for the spring and summer? Could that mean a pretty warm spring/summer around these parts? As long as the central conus remains unseasonably dry, it be tough for us not to be hot again this summer. The dynamical and statistical models are outlooking enso neutral. The CFS2 is leaning toward weak el nino this summer, but to be honest it seems to have a nino (or warm) bias in the summer/fall longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 aw...but too light to get "noted" on the 6 hr maps. probably will trend a bit more moist to generate some .1 over 6 hr type stuff....yay for 1-2"! On Wunderground Euro blankets cwa with .01-.05 between 7pm and 10pm Monday, an additional .01-.05 next three hours nern half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Anyone having issues with Allan's site with the 0z euro ENS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 As long as the central conus remains unseasonably dry, it be tough for us not to be hot again this summer. The dynamical and statistical models are outlooking enso neutral. The CFS2 is leaning toward weak el nino this summer, but to be honest it seems to have a nino (or warm) bias in the summer/fall longer range. I believe someone posted that there has never been a Nina winter following 2 consecutive winters of Nina and then neutral...so hopefully we're statistically good for no Nina next winter? One can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I believe someone posted that there has never been a Nina winter following 2 consecutive winters of Nina and then neutral...so hopefully we're statistically good for no Nina next winter? One can only hope. Yeah I went back thru the JMA site, couldn't find anything either. Only one that came close to that description was winter of 1924-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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