Quakertown needs snow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 should mention, though i don't have exact output but the euro gies us precip from the clipper i think its under .1 though. tuesday? looks like it bombs out at little to far of the coast. can it shift west some? all about clippers next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 tuesday? looks like it bombs out at little to far of the coast. can it shift west some? all about clippers next week I'm talking about precip from the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 tuesday? looks like it bombs out at little to far of the coast. can it shift west some? all about clippers next week Compare it to the 12z euro from yesterday and the gfs and it's the closest one to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well the nao has been in one extreme level or another the previous three winters. There is no denying though that more extreme events have happened of late. I dont have the number in from of me, but PHL has had more 10" or greater events since 1996 than it did from 1950 through 1995. I just wonder what one has to do for an old fashioned 4-8" snow? Maybe I have to find my typewriter. Hey Tony - in the past 11 yrs Philly has recorded (8) 12" events, during the preceding (42) yrs I believe (9) such storms are on the books. During the 1940-50's we had a (16) yr period in which we didn't record a single 12" event so some young bucks currently going through a mid-winter crisis don't realize how good they've had it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey Tony - in the past 11 yrs Philly has recorded (8) 12" events, during the preceding (42) yrs I believe (9) such storms are on the books. During the 1940-50's we had a (16) yr period in which we didn't record a single 12" event so some young bucks currently going through a mid-winter crisis don't realize how good they've had it.... Carl, Yes. I even think of the 6 and 7 year stretches too without a single event above 6". I'm not a stratospheric warming expert at all, so this is not posted with "red tag" wisdom: the EC site seems to bring the warming/ridging right down on the pole. That should could keep a -ao going. I suppose there can be winters with an ao/nao disconnect, but at the least the eastern Canadian vortex should not be able to retreat northward any time soon. Can it exit east instead? IDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Carl, Yes. I even think of the 6 and 7 year stretches too without a single event above 6". I'm not a stratospheric warming expert at all, so this is not posted with "red tag" wisdom: the EC site seems to bring the warming/ridging right down on the pole. That should could keep a -ao going. I suppose there can be winters with an ao/nao disconnect, but at the least the eastern Canadian vortex should not be able to retreat northward any time soon. Can it exit east instead? IDK. Good thing we didn't have internet in the early-mid 70s. On a slightly positive note the 12z is a little more robust with 5-day clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GEFS starting to move robustly into 8 after a stall in 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I know HM and Adam, probably think other wise on this, but that 168 hr storm on the euro just looks very suspicious to me. Back in december you knew everything was going to cut. We had -pna, pv up by alaska, no real -nao, mjo wasn't favorable. This go around i just find that day 7 forecast suspect. Granted its not a strong block, but their is some form of ridging over green land holding that pv from escaping. The trof coming into the west also isn't that robust. I just don't see how that storm cuts into the western lakes with the huge pv sitting there and somewhat of greenland ridging. I could see the storm coming so far north then redveloping or a swfe event, but the track to wisconsin, totally moving that pv. Also, its not like the mjo is in a horrible phase. As of now its in phase 7 heading towards phase 8 (going off roundys), that doesn't scream cutter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This is almost verbatim what the GFS shows too. Pretty decent consistency for the moment between the two models. The thing that sucks is both are showing rain. I know HM and Adam, probably think other wise on this, but that 168 hr storm on the euro just looks very suspicious to me. Back in december you knew everything was going to cut. We had -pna, pv up by alaska, no real -nao, mjo wasn't favorable. This go around i just find that day 7 forecast suspect. Granted its not a strong block, but their is some form of ridging over green land holding that pv from escaping. The trof coming into the west also isn't that robust. I just don't see how that storm cuts into the western lakes with the huge pv sitting there and somewhat of greenland ridging. I could see the storm coming so far north then redveloping or a swfe event, but the track to wisconsin, totally moving that pv. Also, its not like the mjo is in a horrible phase. As of now its in phase 7 heading towards phase 8 (going off roundys), that doesn't scream cutter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah Tom, I wouldn't be surprised if that trended south, but then again I don't consider myself a long-ranger so maybe I'm just completely out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I know HM and Adam, probably think other wise on this, but that 168 hr storm on the euro just looks very suspicious to me. Back in december you knew everything was going to cut. We had -pna, pv up by alaska, no real -nao, mjo wasn't favorable. This go around i just find that day 7 forecast suspect. Granted its not a strong block, but their is some form of ridging over green land holding that pv from escaping. The trof coming into the west also isn't that robust. I just don't see how that storm cuts into the western lakes with the huge pv sitting there and somewhat of greenland ridging. I could see the storm coming so far north then redveloping or a swfe event, but the track to wisconsin, totally moving that pv. Also, its not like the mjo is in a horrible phase. As of now its in phase 7 heading towards phase 8 (going off roundys), that doesn't scream cutter to me. The GFS also has a cutter in the same timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This is almost verbatim what the GFS shows too. Pretty decent consistency for the moment between the two models. The thing that sucks is both are showing rain. lol consistency? the 0z euro had no where near this. The past 2 runs have just been cold fronts and now its goes bonkers with a huge phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The GFS also has a cutter in the same timeframe This is almost verbatim what the GFS shows too. Pretty decent consistency for the moment between the two models. The thing that sucks is both are showing rain. The gfs also has a different setup which argues for maybe a cutter. The gfs doesn't have any of the semi blocking like the euro does and moves the pv north before the storm. Also, if you look at the gfs, it isn't a cutter, its all northern stream related that stays to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's like the cold shot next week is an anomaly to the persistant crappy WPAC pattern and it wants to revert back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It seems to me that the climatology of the area almost always supports at least some type of snow event between February 4th and 9th. I went back and took just a cursory look at those dates for PHL from Wunderground and the NWS event summary from 1996-2012 and found the following. 1996 - Feb 7, 8 rain/snow 1997 - Feb 8,9 snow 1998 - nothing 1999 - Feb 7,8 rain/snow 2000 - Feb 4,5 snow 2001 - Feb 5 rain/snow 2002 - Feb 7 rain/snow 2003 - Feb 6,7 snow 2004 - Feb 6 rain/snow 2005 - Feb 4 snow 2006 - nothing 2007 - Feb 7 snow 2008 - nothing 2009 - nothing 2010 - Feb 5,6,9 snow 2011 - Feb 5 rain/ snow, Feb 9 snow 2012 - Feb 8,9 snow Seems that if last August you made a prediction for at least some snow during this period of February you would look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Agree with your analysis, Tom. If we're going to miss, right is a lot more likely than left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Question, if 12z EURO happened exactly does it show any front end ice/sleet/snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I know HM and Adam, probably think other wise on this, but that 168 hr storm on the euro just looks very suspicious to me. Back in december you knew everything was going to cut. We had -pna, pv up by alaska, no real -nao, mjo wasn't favorable. This go around i just find that day 7 forecast suspect. Granted its not a strong block, but their is some form of ridging over green land holding that pv from escaping. The trof coming into the west also isn't that robust. I just don't see how that storm cuts into the western lakes with the huge pv sitting there and somewhat of greenland ridging. I could see the storm coming so far north then redveloping or a swfe event, but the track to wisconsin, totally moving that pv. Also, its not like the mjo is in a horrible phase. As of now its in phase 7 heading towards phase 8 (going off roundys), that doesn't scream cutter to me. A HM mentioned the other day, Euro is sending the PV into the Atlantic and on its way to Europe. The Euro ensembles have been more conservative in moving the PV around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The gfs also has a different setup which argues for maybe a cutter. The gfs doesn't have any of the semi blocking like the euro does and moves the pv north before the storm. Also, if you look at the gfs, it isn't a cutter, its all northern stream related that stays to the north. Alot of us in the NYC sub-forum have been commenting on how the Euro solution looks suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 A HM mentioned the other day, Euro is sending the PV into the Atlantic and on its way to Europe. The Euro ensembles have been more conservative in moving the PV around. The Euro ensembles are more conservative, but the PNA has collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The Euro ensembles are more conservative, but the PNA has collapsed. That is after the storm, the time period of the storm is around day 8, the map below. Obviously their are a ton of solutions which is why it shows the 850s as cold as they are. here is the day after, so you see the euro ens are redeveloping. also, this is the day 6-10 h5 anamoly on the euro ens, that doesn't scream cutter at all to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Question, if 12z EURO happened exactly does it show any front end ice/sleet/snow? no, its all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Those maps look like sne specials. Redevelops south of Long Island. While we get a little more sleet before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Tombo Not really arguing your point that the cutter idea is bogus, but that in the long term the flow will go zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Those maps look like sne specials. Redevelops south of Long Island. While we get a little more sleet before rain. The ensemble maps aren't great for us but they are better than the Op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Tombo Not really arguing your point that the cutter idea is bogus, but that in the long term the flow will go zonal. sometimes, that is good if you have the right pattern. It will allow for more disturbances to traverse the country instead of this dry pattern. Just have to hope some sort of -nao develops to lock in the pv to allow storms to track under us or up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 sometimes, that is good if you have the right pattern. It will allow for more disturbances to traverse the country instead of this dry pattern. Just have to hope some sort of -nao develops to lock in the pv to allow storms to track under us or up the coast. Last serious dip in the NAO occurred in late Oct early Nov that coincided with Sandy and the Nov snow (rising out of of a NAO bottom is always something to watch). Maybe HM can give some insight about the future of the NAO. Anywho I'll keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 sometimes, that is good if you have the right pattern. It will allow for more disturbances to traverse the country instead of this dry pattern. Just have to hope some sort of -nao develops to lock in the pv to allow storms to track under us or up the coast. Yeah I'd rather have a zonal pattern with a -NAO than a very positive PNA with supression of systems. At least you would have a chance at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah I'd rather have a zonal pattern with a -NAO than a very positive PNA with supression of systems. At least you would have a chance at something. As long as that pv is over central or southern hudson bay, the cold air will be around usually and with the flow around it most storms would go under us or redevelop on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This Euro run seems amped up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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