tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 12z NAM 84 hrs looked halfway decent, 1-2 6z GFS ind. ensembles show hope for Jan 6-7 event..."only in dreams" The cmc looks decent for some precip over the region, also a close miss for the storm after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The cmc looks decent for some precip over the region, also a close miss for the storm after The event on the 6th is probably bogus, the 12Z NAM does seem headed for the GEM's solution on it but as we know the NAM is generally hogwash at 84 hours. The system that misses at about 140 hours is the one that would have a chance. These events though would both have marginal cold air in place so there is zero margin for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The event on the 6th is probably bogus, the 12Z NAM does seem headed for the GEM's solution on it but as we know the NAM is generally hogwash at 84 hours. The system that misses at about 140 hours is the one that would have a chance. These events though would both have marginal cold air in place so there is zero margin for error. Looking at the gefs, their are some that support the cmc for the sunday precip, others don't. Seems like its more of a timing thing, while some bring it out faster, others hold it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I always believed this winter will go back and forth in temps with feb having the coldest temps. January has warmed the most of the the winter months over the last 15 years or so. So far its been going back and forth, alright... from above normal to near normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I always believed this winter will go back and forth in temps with feb having the coldest temps. January has warmed the most of the the winter months over the last 15 years or so. at first glance most likely DEC is the month that has warmed the most over the past 15 yrs, PHL has experienced (5) of the top (10) warmest DEC's on record over the past 15 yrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 at first glance most likely DEC is the month that has warmed the most over the past 15 yrs, PHL has experienced (5) of the top (10) warmest DEC's on record over the past 15 yrs And i believe also some of the snowiest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 at first glance most likely DEC is the month that has warmed the most over the past 15 yrs, PHL has experienced (5) of the top (10) warmest DEC's on record over the past 15 yrs That NCDC web site has 10 of the last 15 Decembers above normal and 8 of the last 15 Januaries above normal on a CONUS basis. Both are warming a about .1F per decade, December slightly higher. November is beating both of them out by a tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 You basically want to find out where the sinks (troughs) and ridges will align and favor the remnant dust (cold) to settle into. The MJO/glaam indications can certainly help as ampsu and HM just described. There is a general broad-brushed "rule" in that out of the 3 main regions of eastern Asia, Europe and NA, 1 of the 3 usually misses out on the fun. Yeah that's why I never get a confident feeling about SSW events. The GLAAM and MJO have more predictable results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Interestingly, it is the neutral ENSO state that is correlated with the most active MJO activity. But what does "neutral" actually mean? Now, of course, we can answer this question with the common answer but what is it about strong ENSO events and neutral events that favor/do not favor MJO activity? This winter, despite the mixed signals and changing SST, has had a pretty stable Walker and Hadley Cell circulation. Stable cells like these are usually present in strong ENSO conditions, which typically reduce MJO activity. I haven't gone to the Aussie site in a while, but is there some sort of cyclicality (ok not a word) beyond ENSO influences when the MJO kind of remains predominately dormant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 This doesn't look to horrid day 10 and after. You can see the progression of the trof working east. I like at day 10 the -epo forming and somewhat higher hgts building over greenland. Hopefully that can force that pig of a vortex further south. In reality like the gefs, the boundry could be right over us or over the apps which spells cutters. But at least their is a small chance of front end frozen if that trof continues to kick east and the boundary sets up on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 EC Ensembles keep any cold in the west right through day 15 in the day 10+ range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 EC Ensembles keep any cold in the west right through day 15 in the day 10+ range. Ok, well scratch my post then. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Ok, well scratch my post then. Thanks for the info. No prob...we might get a "cold" shot in ten days post-front but it doesn't look substantial or sustained by any stretch...40ish for highs type verbatim in the city. Core stays in Midwest as SE ridge holds and then may reflex if the ENS is right. Days 13-15 look warmish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 pretty massive epo block starting to show up now on the gefs in the day 8-10 range. Thats how you get cold air down into the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 pretty massive epo block starting to show up now on the gefs in the day 8-10 range. Thats how you get cold air down into the US Just a question of whether the cold in the west eventually works its way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 pretty massive epo block starting to show up now on the gefs in the day 8-10 range. Thats how you get cold air down into the US Just a question of whether the cold in the west eventually works its way east. yea its obvious its going in the west and plains first. Then its how long does it take to work east, if it does at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 The euro is advertising a pretty warm three day stretch late next week. Time to clean the clubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 The euro is advertising a pretty warm three day stretch late next week. Time to clean the clubs Yup. Next week looks good for golfing, fishing and any other outdoor activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Yeah that's why I never get a confident feeling about SSW events. The GLAAM and MJO have more predictable results. Indeed Tony. Considering how all of that has gone thus far with the PNA persistently negative and no real hope to change that background tendency for the long haul, I dont feel particularly lucky right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 GFS/NAM are totally dif compared to EURO in the day 5 range. EURO isn't phasing the energy in the southwest while the American models are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 18z NAM is phasing the energy in southwest too....I am not 100% sure the pattern results of this happening, but I have to suppose that a stronger cutter would be better for the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 Thursday weeklies flip flop from Mondays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Thursday weeklies flip flop from Mondays? Whaddya mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Whaddya mean? they are cold weeks 3 and 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Still on track for a pattern flip around the 20th based on the new weeklies ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Still on track for a pattern flip around the 20th based on the new weeklies ! and people said winter is over, HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 and people said winter is over, HA! Until the next weeklies come out anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 if 0 and 6z gfs is correct after warmup/rain then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 they are cold weeks 3 and 4 I dont see them, but it sounds like there has been alot of flip flopping in weeks 3 and 4 with them. Well regardless, the gfs re-invigorated mjo outlook is not falling into the cod does corroborate the colder trend after the middle of the month. Also the SSW is about to start. Want to see the NAEFS turn colder east. As far as they go the "angle of the cold" is more western/central centric 2nd full week of January. 06z GFS 493 thickness at 18z 1/19 for PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Most the means on the MJO forecast models show the pulse diving into the COD before reaching Phase 7. So we'll have to get help from somewhere else. An example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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