RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS will be north of 18z....lets see if it's enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS will be north of 18z....lets see if it's enough... yea, the confluence is less, its phasing in a little better with the h5 low and thats stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Doesn't quite make it up here with a good thump. Definitely good trends tonight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Doesn't quite make it up here with a good thump. Definitely good trends tonight though. you get over .25 qpf from it...your surface temp is warm, but it would probably flip over to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Quite a shift N on the GFS - NAM ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 gfs comes north also, interesting. can this make it past philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 you get over .25 qpf from it...your surface temp is warm, but it would probably flip over to snow AccuWx text says it is snow by 18z on Thursday. An extra .14 comes from the inverted trough type feature as it pulls away, so it ends up a little better than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 D6 clipper doesn't dig quite as far as 18z. Still gives area 1-3 more to E+N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The fact the storm Friday could screw DT out of snow probably means it will keep going north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The fact the storm Friday could screw DT out of snow probably means it will keep going north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The fact the storm Friday could screw DT out of snow probably means it will keep going north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Dt honking for the Friday storm on Facebook..... I really hope this one happens.... It's been several years since we've had a s&e special......last one was right around this time jan 2010......and we know what happened right after that.. Anyone else getting a bit of déjà vu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 0z CMC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 here's the rest of the candian: 144 notice how the low dips south of 40 N...thats what our region needs to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 as for friday, pretty significant jump by the GFS: On the left (0z GFS) you can see a lot more interaction with the northern stream as the confluence /PV relaxes a little bit. compared to the 18z on the left. very interesting trends... Rgem only goes out to 48, but would be close for our southern locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What also should be noted with the 18z gfs is at least half that precip is fr an inverted trof like signature which I wouldn't bet any money on if you are relying on that totally don't buy that this far out...but the track would at least spit some snow over us. The EC's look until last night was pretty bad for us. BTW, EC loses the clipper at the surface in last night's run (shows 500 energy pushing in). Ocean low in the Atlantic that misses wide right does develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Gfs took another bump north for Friday. .10 to phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Congrats Delmarva, acy, dca on 06z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hr 51 .25 gets to nj shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS is a good bit more amped with this low than the other models. Sub 1008 compared to sub 1012 on the EC and NAM at 7 PM Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Dang, I missed a good discussion yesterday evening with HM et al. My $.02 is that I agree with HM for the most part. I've been thinking that any chance for a KU storm would be in the Jan 20-Feb 7 period based on the MJO stuff. I think I'm more worried than he is, though, that without tropical forcing, the -PDO/Nina-ish pattern will snap back into place and that we really need the MJO to stay dominant through Valentine's or so to have a shot for a good wintry period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Dang, I missed a good discussion yesterday evening with HM et al. My $.02 is that I agree with HM for the most part. I've been thinking that any chance for a KU storm would be in the Jan 20-Feb 7 period based on the MJO stuff. I think I'm more worried than he is, though, that without tropical forcing, the -PDO/Nina-ish pattern will snap back into place and that we really need the MJO to stay dominant through Valentine's or so to have a shot for a good wintry period. Do you have any particular storms that stand out? I know people have talked about the one later next week, which the euro currently has rain for. Only issue I'm worried with that storm is if their is a lack of blocking and that pv retrogrades for a reload the storm could sneak up as it retrogrades and cut if no blocking is around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hey guys, I don't know who wants to be responsible for starting threads on events, but I'm pretty sure if we are talking about NAM and SREF output, we're not talking about the medium or long range anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Do you have any particular storms that stand out? I know people have talked about the one later next week, which the euro currently has rain for. Only issue I'm worried with that storm is if their is a lack of blocking and that pv retrogrades for a reload the storm could sneak up as it retrogrades and cut if no blocking is around. Nope, sorry. I'm only good at getting the large scale pattern. HM is the only one I know with skillful techniques for picking out particular threats in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 euro stays offshore with the miller B next tues-wed time frame fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 euro stays offshore with the miller B next tues-wed time frame fwiw. I'm starting to get a bad feeling about storm potential during the upcoming cold wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm starting to get a bad feeling about storm potential during the upcoming cold wave. Ehh, it's easy to be pessimistic, especially the i-95 corrdior between PHL-NYC .... but, we;ll have a window of opportunity, its just going to take a lot of patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Dang, I missed a good discussion yesterday evening with HM et al. My $.02 is that I agree with HM for the most part. I've been thinking that any chance for a KU storm would be in the Jan 20-Feb 7 period based on the MJO stuff. I think I'm more worried than he is, though, that without tropical forcing, the -PDO/Nina-ish pattern will snap back into place and that we really need the MJO to stay dominant through Valentine's or so to have a shot for a good wintry period. Well, I think we are equally worried since last week I've basically stated those concerns. And just like that, a warm shot is being modeled on the euro with no big storm Jan 25. This is exactly the PNA related issues I was worried about. Also, the PV doesn't shift east with the clipper bomb which ruins any KU setup either. The big question is: how long does it take for the stratospheric anomaly / -AO to build down into the NAO domain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well, I think we are equally worried since last week I've basically stated those concerns. And just like that, a warm shot is being modeled on the euro with no big storm Jan 25. This is exactly the PNA related issues I was worried about. Also, the PV doesn't shift east with the clipper bomb which ruins any KU setup either. The big question is: how long does it take for the stratospheric anomaly / -AO to build down into the NAO domain? Yep. And can it time right with the PNA > 0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Nope, sorry. I'm only good at getting the large scale pattern. HM is the only one I know with skillful techniques for picking out particular threats in the medium range. Thanks. I appreciate that. There is nothing being modeled right now that I'm excited for but I still do think we get a window 2/5-2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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