HM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Agree the 12z GFS ensemble doesn't show any major warm ups during the period you outlined and with the MJO showing some persistence to make it to Phase 8 I'm gonna be watching. This is the strongest westerly wind burst / equatorial +AAM anomaly I've seen since last March-April and possibly since 2009-10. It is quite possible this thing reignites some sort of El Nino response from a downwelling KW. The +AAM anomaly is huge and so are the westerlies at 850mb. Yes it is going to find the residual La Nina-like circulation but I agree that it ultimately wins. The slower the better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 18z gfs trying to make Friday interesting For Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Damn. 18z GFS has some impressive QPF totals and all snow. 0.85 through 18z Tuesday for MIV. Best run I've seen inside truncation in 2 years. 0.97 for AC. All snow according to the AccuWx numbers too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Damn. 18z GFS has some impressive QPF totals and all snow. 0.85 through 18z Tuesday for MIV. Best run I've seen inside truncation in 2 years. 0.97 for AC. All snow according to the AccuWx numbers too. thats all dependent on where that clipper goes. If thats to the north of us, we just count the clouds as sne gets clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 thats all dependent on where that clipper goes. If thats to the north of us, we just count the clouds as sne gets clobbered. Of course. I was just putting what the model had verbatim. But way to be a buzzkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This is fairly close to a two phase jet stream .But the southern jet is not involved due to the high heights in the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 thats all dependent on where that clipper goes. If thats to the north of us, we just count the clouds as sne gets clobbered. Well the 12z euro was over buffalo. It actually clobbered down east Maine, spared sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Well the 12z euro was over buffalo. It actually clobbered down east Maine, spared sne. In general, you don't want to be south of a clipper. Not only do you miss out on the precip really but you get the southerly winds and it warms you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Maybe a good idea would be to compare ensemble mean trends of the NAO-PV for Jan 20-23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 In general, you don't want to be south of a clipper. Not only do you miss out on the precip really but you get the southerly winds and it warms you up. Oh agree Tom. Was just saying how the northern most model was a miss for most of sne. I wish we could lock in the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Oh agree Tom. Was just saying how the northern most model was a miss for most of sne. I wish we could lock in the gfs I agree, 7 days left, atleast their is something on the table. Cold air won't be an issue, its the track of that clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wow great read today guys! Thanks HM, NWS mets and everyone else for their input! Should be a fun few weeks for everyone!! This is a winter lovers dream pattern!! I may actually be able to use my snowthrower at some point that I got early LAST SEASON! Still haven't used it yet!!! ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 18z GFS also has a D10 threat similar to Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm not sure how those composites work with analogs... is that date representing the start of the period? The end? The middle? Here's the 9 days around 1/10/1994, for example: Philly: Hi Lo Prcp Snow SD 6 32 24 0.00 0.0 0 7 33 30 0.19 0.0 0 8 37 18 0.16 0.2 T 9 28 17 0.00 0.0 T 10 29 17 0.00 0.0 T 11 40 21 0.00 0.0 T 12 39 36 0.43 T 0 13 41 36 T 0.0 0 14 39 17 0.05 0.1 0 ABE: Hi Lo Prcp Snow SD 6 21 16 0.01 0.1 2 7 23 18 0.39 1.5 2 8 31 11 0.33 0.5 4 9 24 11 0.00 0.0 3 10 24 11 0.00 0.0 3 11 30 8 0.00 0.0 3 12 32 21 0.64 7.4 3 13 36 31 T 0.0 9 14 37 15 0.10 0.7 8 Thanks ray. It was on the SV products page. Wasn't sure of the exact date. But thank for covering all basis. @HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I posted this over in the NE subforum and wanted it here too WRT the ECMWF run: Is it time to sound the KU alarms for Jan 25-27? The window here would open if the ECMWF is correct in lifting the entire polar vortex into the North Atlantic. The GFS is more robust in bringing down the blocking (down as in strat-->tropo and AO-->NAO) and holding the vortex in place instead of shifting out. Now the Jan 20-25 period will be a time, stratospherically, when anomalies will be squeezed through the N Atlantic-UK pipeline in an area of high PV. Is it possible the whole damn Arctic Source/tropo PV goes for the ride too? My early thoughts are that it ...gulp...won't move out quite that fast and the blocking will continue to trend stronger toward the 25th. While we can definitely see snow events during this period, I'm not sold yet on the ECMWF KU setup....but eventually the threat will become real. To illustrate HM's point, today's Euro ensemble mean holds the vortex in place vs the OP run which sends it into Atlantic. Op run Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Check out the 18z gefs individuals for the day 6-7 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 need that clipper to dip farther south...the ol' skip-n-screw scenario (energy skips us thanks to the Apps, fires up after it hits the coast) is on the table for next Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 need that clipper to dip farther south...the ol' skip-n-screw scenario (energy skips us thanks to the Apps, fires up after it hits the coast) is on the table for next Monday night. how often do clippers trend south over time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 how often do clippers trend south over time? Personally, I think the Euro is a bit too amped (it's about 4-5 mb stronger than the GFS) and I *think* this trends a bit weaker in time...so it may end up tracking a notch south. I'm not sure what the stats are between weaker/stronger with day 6 clippers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Personally, I think the Euro is a bit too amped (it's about 4-5 mb stronger than the GFS) and I *think* this trends a bit weaker in time...so it may end up tracking a notch south. I'm not sure what the stats are between weaker/stronger with day 6 clippers though. What also should be noted with the 18z gfs is at least half that precip is fr an inverted trof like signature which I wouldn't bet any money on if you are relying on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Check out the 18z gefs individuals for the day 6-7 threat. 18z GEFS have good support for the D10 GFS threat considering the lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM coming in bringing the Friday storm up farther north. Probably precip-type issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The NAM is very very interesting if correct. Over .50 of precip. Don't know how much of that is snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The NAM is very very interesting if correct. Over .50 of precip. Don't know how much of that is snow though. its all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The NAM is very very interesting if correct. Over .50 of precip. Don't know how much of that is snow though. NAM is probably overamped but SREF +18z GFS are also supportive. Could get interesting for S Del+NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks Tom. Finally bringing me good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The day 6-7 has that classic Miller B look to it. Fortunately that could mean the first significant snow chance for the city, however we all know those storms usually fair much better for NYC & NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks Tom. Finally bringing me good news. For our southern region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks Tom. Finally bringing me good news. lol, your area has a better shot than up here but i still think its a long shot. That confluence has to lift north, whcih you would lose your cold air source or it would have a stronger h5 low and phase more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 interesting trend north, keep it coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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