Medium Range-Long Range thread

[RedSky]

Fwiw 240 hr euro is beautiful looking

 

Big dog potential out in near fantasy range, the cogs on the wheel are in the right spot the last week of january best chance in a long time it would seem

[Allsnow]

Big dog potential out in near fantasy range, the cogs on the wheel are in the right spot the last week of january best chance in a long time it would seem

Absolutely. Going to be exciting time. Hopefully it works out for us. 05 type turn around?

[chubbs]

D7 clipper threat looks better today but love the D10 Euro

[NaoPos]

Would love to see the next 3 frames in the euro...

Huge 50-50 low, blocking in Greenland, PNA spike amplifying the wave and digging it south.

This prob belongs in the banter thread,

My apologies.

[snowlurker]

D7 clipper threat looks better today but love the D10 Euro

For sake of education (I'd love to progress and contribute here), what do you call that feature on the 240 hr 12Z ECMWF 500mb height map at the intersection of Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Is it an upper low in the four corners area? I've heard talk in the Mid Atlantic sub-forum (during other "threats") about a four corners low that is almost negatively tilted. If that is what is being (or amost being) depicted in the map, what in the heck is meant by "negatively tilted"?

Thanks to anyone who can spend the time explaining this to me.

[tombo82685]

For sake of education (I'd love to progress and contribute here), what do you call that feature on the 240 hr 12Z ECMWF 500mb height map at the intersection of Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Is it an upper low in the four corners area? I've heard talk in the Mid Atlantic sub-forum (during other "threats") about a four corners low that is almost negatively tilted. If that is what is being (or amost being) depicted in the map, what in the heck is meant by "negatively tilted"?

Thanks to anyone who can spend the time explaining this to me.

negative tilt means the trof axis runs northwest to southeast. Usually occurs with strong upper level lows

[am19psu]

lol the new moderator doesn't even know how to use the quote tags properly

[chubbs]

Would love to see the next 3 frames in the euro...

Huge 50-50 low, blocking in Greenland, PNA spike amplifying the wave and digging it south.

This prob belongs in the banter thread,

My apologies.

 

That prog is classic too bad its 10 days out. The Euro relaxes the W coast ridge enough to let some energy through and then has a little PNA spike to help it to dig. 

[chubbs]

For sake of education (I'd love to progress and contribute here), what do you call that feature on the 240 hr 12Z ECMWF 500mb height map at the intersection of Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Is it an upper low in the four corners area? I've heard talk in the Mid Atlantic sub-forum (during other "threats") about a four corners low that is almost negatively tilted. If that is what is being (or amost being) depicted in the map, what in the heck is meant by "negatively tilted"?

Negative tilt means the trof axis runs northwest to southeast. Usually occurs with strong upper level lows

Thanks to anyone who can spend the time explaining this to me.

 The low in question is slightly positive, which is just about perfect. If it continues to intensify it will go nuetral or negative near the e coast.

[famartin]

lol the new moderator doesn't even know how to use the quote tags properly

[tombo82685]

lol the new moderator doesn't even know how to use the quote tags properly

Lol first off I'm on my phone 2ndly I quoted right, I just continued on his quote lol

[bluehens]

Fwiw 240 hr euro is beautiful looking

I have read this same post it seems like every day for the past 3 weeks and it hasn't amounted to anything. Until something is inside 48 hours then my mindset is cold/dry and warm/wet.

[Heisy]

bluehens, thats kind of cliche, in the past few recent weeks there honestly hasn't been a legit looking storm to track, and I should know I have a sick mentally ill addiction to weather, ask tom. The EURO @ day 8-10 finally gave me something to look at. 

[Rainshadow]

I have read this same post it seems like every day for the past 3 weeks and it hasn't amounted to anything. Until something is inside 48 hours then my mindset is cold/dry and warm/wet.

 

Yeah there have been some interesting looks to the Euro around days 9-10 this winter.  Dp/dting I'd say if its still there around day 6, looks like the point where it has been stabilizing. Regardless, the pattern now is a cold one, so if something falls from the clouds, chances are the Delaware Snow Shield will collapse.

[NaoPos]

The 11-15 day gfs 12z ensemble analog years are :

1-10-1994

1-19-1985

1-13-1977

1-12-1969

2-03-2009

1-12-1970

1-11-2011

Any one have composites for the top 3?

In pretty sure the 1994 speaks for itself, but wasn't 1977 pretty cold?

[Allsnow]

18z gfs trying to make Friday interesting

[NaoPos]

thats a pretty potent vort @ 54 embedded in the southern stream..to bad its running into the buzzsaw of death!

[Allsnow]

thats a pretty potent vort @ 54 embedded in the southern stream..to bad its running into the buzzsaw of death!

Yeah unbelievable it hits a brick wall, might give dt some love

[tombo82685]

The 11-15 day gfs 12z ensemble analog years are :

1-10-1994

1-19-1985

1-13-1977

1-12-1969

2-03-2009

1-12-1970

1-11-2011

Any one have composites for the top 3?

In pretty sure the 1994 speaks for itself, but wasn't 1977 pretty cold?

1-10-94 high 29 low 17 no precip

1-19-85 high 36 low 22

1-13-77 high 21 low 5

[famartin]

The 11-15 day gfs 12z ensemble analog years are :

1-10-1994

1-19-1985

1-13-1977

1-12-1969

2-03-2009

1-12-1970

1-11-2011

Any one have composites for the top 3?

In pretty sure the 1994 speaks for itself, but wasn't 1977 pretty cold?

I'm not sure how those composites work with analogs... is that date representing the start of the period?  The end?  The middle?

 

Here's the 9 days around 1/10/1994, for example:

Philly: Hi    Lo  Prcp  Snow    SD 6      32    24  0.00   0.0     0 7      33    30  0.19   0.0     0 8      37    18  0.16   0.2     T 9      28    17  0.00   0.0     T10      29    17  0.00   0.0     T11      40    21  0.00   0.0     T12      39    36  0.43     T     013      41    36     T   0.0     014      39    17  0.05   0.1     0

 

ABE:    Hi    Lo  Prcp  Snow    SD 6      21    16  0.01   0.1     2 7      23    18  0.39   1.5     2 8      31    11  0.33   0.5     4 9      24    11  0.00   0.0     310      24    11  0.00   0.0     311      30     8  0.00   0.0     312      32    21  0.64   7.4     313      36    31     T   0.0     914      37    15  0.10   0.7     8

[HM]

I posted this over in the NE subforum and wanted it here too WRT the ECMWF run:

 

Is it time to sound the KU alarms for Jan 25-27?

 

The window here would open if the ECMWF is correct in lifting the entire polar vortex into the North Atlantic. The GFS is more robust in bringing down the blocking (down as in strat-->tropo and AO-->NAO) and holding the vortex in place instead of shifting out. Now the Jan 20-25 period will be a time, stratospherically, when anomalies will be squeezed through the N Atlantic-UK pipeline in an area of high PV. Is it possible the whole damn Arctic Source/tropo PV goes for the ride too?

 

My early thoughts are that it ...gulp...won't move out quite that fast and the blocking will continue to trend stronger toward the 25th. While we can definitely see snow events during this period, I'm not sold yet on the ECMWF KU setup....but eventually the threat will become real.

[tombo82685]

I posted this over in the NE subforum and wanted it here too WRT the ECMWF run:

 

Is it time to sound the KU alarms for Jan 25-27?

 

The window here would open if the ECMWF is correct in lifting the entire polar vortex into the North Atlantic. The GFS is more robust in bringing down the blocking (down as in strat-->tropo and AO-->NAO) and holding the vortex in place instead of shifting out. Now the Jan 20-25 period will be a time, stratospherically, when anomalies will be squeezed through the N Atlantic-UK pipeline in an area of high PV. Is it possible the whole damn Arctic Source/tropo PV goes for the ride too?

 

My early thoughts are that it ...gulp...won't move out quite that fast and the blocking will continue to trend stronger toward the 25th. While we can definitely see snow events during this period, I'm not sold yet on the ECMWF KU setup....but eventually the threat will become real.

Thanks for the post HM. How long do you think we are locked into colder than normal pattern? If the mjo is right and it wants to dance all the way through phases 8-2 it should atleast hold through the beginning of february i would think.

[HM]

Thanks for the post HM. How long do you think we are locked into colder than normal pattern? If the mjo is right and it wants to dance all the way through phases 8-2 it should atleast hold through the beginning of february i would think.

Yes, I think we go through the second week of Feb at least. Yesterday I mentioned our PNA woes late Jan-early Feb but I still don't think a -PNA locks in either. I don't see any signs of that until maybe mid to late Feb; and even then, I don't think it will be a big torch with the cold air source available. And that could easily go right back to a more sustained trough in March.

 

The beginning of Feb has been looking, for a while, to be very snowy for much of the area. It is quite possible that everything happens faster and I'm definitely guilty of being too slow or fast with transitions. But, I think the ECMWF day 9-10+ is a little too fast and it likely waits until Feb. Of course, who says we can't have two! lol

[HM]

Well at least if HM is taking a gulp it is encouraging.

 

     

Haha thanks. Well, more evidence is the ECMWF mean has the PV west of the operational with the op clearly the strongest with the wave that pulls the vortex out to sea. So perhaps this day 9-10+ setup is based on a possible bias with the op run. Also throw in the potential for a stronger -NAO trend and you got yourself a "rushed solution."

 

Of course, I thought the Midwest would see more snow this week, last week when I made the statement and we see how that went, haha...so who knows.

[tombo82685]

Yes, I think we go through the second week of Feb at least. Yesterday I mentioned our PNA woes late Jan-early Feb but I still don't think a -PNA locks in either. I don't see any signs of that until maybe mid to late Feb; and even then, I don't think it will be a big torch with the cold air source available. And that could easily go right back to a more sustained trough in March.

 

The beginning of Feb has been looking, for a while, to be very snowy for much of the area. It is quite possible that everything happens faster and I'm definitely guilty of being too slow or fast with transitions. But, I think the ECMWF day 9-10+ is a little too fast and it likely waits until Feb. Of course, who says we can't have two! lol

Question, wouldn't we want the pna to relax some what, granted not negative, but wouldn't that allow more disturbances to track across the nation? With the pv just to the north and blocking you would imagine tracks under the area would start occuring.

[Harbourton]

Yes, I think we go through the second week of Feb at least. Yesterday I mentioned our PNA woes late Jan-early Feb but I still don't think a -PNA locks in either. I don't see any signs of that until maybe mid to late Feb; and even then, I don't think it will be a big torch with the cold air source available. And that could easily go right back to a more sustained trough in March.

 

The beginning of Feb has been looking, for a while, to be very snowy for much of the area. It is quite possible that everything happens faster and I'm definitely guilty of being too slow or fast with transitions. But, I think the ECMWF day 9-10+ is a little too fast and it likely waits until Feb. Of course, who says we can't have two! lol

Agree the 12z GFS ensemble doesn't show any major warm ups during the period you outlined and with the MJO showing some persistence to make it to Phase 8 I'm gonna be watching.

[HM]

Question, wouldn't we want the pna to relax some what, granted not negative, but wouldn't that allow more disturbances to track across the nation? With the pv just to the north and blocking you would imagine tracks under the area would start occuring.

A few winters back showed how that can work beautifully, as long as you have a sufficient cold air source and proper NAO blocking. A relaxation of the PNA but a not a full blown -PNA will be a nice thing, yes, with the -NAO. That's the kind of pattern I think we evolve into before maybe another PNA spike Feb 5.

 

These dates are ball parks btw...it could easily be earlier/later. It is hard timing PNA spikes with the situation we have at hand. The good news is that we actually have a situation finally! haha

[Allsnow]

18z gfs says miller b snowstorm monday

[tombo82685]

gfs went to the 12z ggem scenario with a nice miller b for the region as that clipper redevelops. That could be the next potential shot for everyone, as long as that clipper tracks over or to the south of us. If it tracks to the north like the euro has it would develop the miller b at our latitude and miss us and hit sne good.

[RowanBrandon]

GFS looks good to me for next week. Lock it up.