Medium Range-Long Range thread

[Mitchell Gaines]

My limited access to the weeklies didn't show me anything different than what has been discussed. Cold week 2 Jan 21-28 with clippers. May get a few mild days week 3 slightly cooler than normal either side, systems to try to punch at the cold in place? More of a gradient pattern from the looks of it week 4 with arctic air in the north similar to week 2 and above normal temps in the southeast. Stormier as well. MJO would favor us on the colder side of things through mid Feb which the weeklies now go through.  Not consistent bitter cold to say the least. Again I have very limited access to this product not associated with the NWS. So take this with a grain of salt.  For those who see more please counter or confirm. 

[tombo82685]

My limited access to the weeklies didn't show me anything different than what has been discussed. Cold week 2 Jan 21-28 with clippers. May get a few mild days week 3 slightly cooler than normal either side, systems to try to punch at the cold in place? More of a gradient pattern from the looks of it week 4 with arctic air in the north similar to week 2 and above normal temps in the southeast. Stormier as well. MJO would favor us on the colder side of things through mid Feb which the weeklies now go through.  Not consistent bitter cold to say the least. Again I have very limited access to this product not associated with the NWS. So take this with a grain of salt.  For those who see more please counter or confirm. 

From what i read, your assessment sounds good. Have to had from what i saiw weeks 3 and 4 featured pos pna and -nao.

[chubbs]

From this weeks cpc MJO status update. They are discounting the model outlooks.  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

 

 

　

The MJO favors an increased likelihood for below-normal temperatures for parts of the central and eastern U.S. during the last 7-10 days of January into early February. Drier-than-average conditions are also favored for portions of the western U.S.

[Quakertown needs snow]

nice loop of cold to come

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2_12z/tloop.html

[Quakertown needs snow]

i sure hope we get some white on the ground with this flow

 

 

[NaoPos]

Here's the morning updates from the GEFS, EURO and UKIE MJO outlooks.

GEFS:

UKIE:

ECM:

The ECM is less enthusiastic of the 3 shown here.

Looks like a slight stall in phase 7, maybe dying out, but then gets new life shortly afterwards.. If we can keep it going Phase 7-8-1, that would bode very well in conjunction with the ongoing MMW. You already see a good amount of high latitude blocking being progged in the Medium range.

I don't believe the window will be at the onset of the cold air assault, but rather between arctic shots. (while not historic, record breaking, it should be pretty damn ample, just not enough snow cover as tombo alluded to to stop it from moderating as it works its way east from the lakes.)

If the MJO forecasts verify into a decent pulse into those octants, we could be talking a nice window of opportunity somewhere late jan-early feb.

Also, question for the mets/advanced forecasters in here. With the assault on the PV , and its subsequent weakening, will that allow to northern stream to relax a little bit and let loose some northern stream vorts into the CONUS? im pretty sure its a yes, just wanna double check that. Thanks in advance.

[tombo82685]

Here's the morning updates from the GEFS, EURO and UKIE MJO outlooks.

GEFS:

UKIE:

ECM:

The ECM is less enthusiastic of the 3 shown here.

Looks like a slight stall in phase 7, maybe dying out, but then gets new life shortly afterwards.. If we can keep it going Phase 7-8-1, that would bode very well in conjunction with the ongoing MMW. You already see a good amount of high latitude blocking being progged in the Medium range.

I don't believe the window will be at the onset of the cold air assault, but rather between arctic shots. (while not historic, record breaking, it should be pretty damn ample, just not enough snow cover as tombo alluded to to stop it from moderating as it works its way east from the lakes.)

If the MJO forecasts verify into a decent pulse into those octants, we could be talking a nice window of opportunity somewhere late jan-early feb.

Also, question for the mets/advanced forecasters in here. With the assault on the PV , and its subsequent weakening, will that allow to northern stream to relax a little bit and let loose some northern stream vorts into the CONUS? im pretty sure its a yes, just wanna double check that. Thanks in advance.

 

I belive either one you posted or this one is the euro ens, but they are more enthused about jump starting it towards phase 8

here also are the ones i think mike ventrice posted about, they seem more gefs based?

[Quakertown needs snow]

I approve Phase 8

[Rainshadow]

I belive either one you posted or this one is the euro ens, but they are more enthused about jump starting it towards phase 8

here also are the ones i think mike ventrice posted about, they seem more gefs based?

Wow is it flying through phase 6.  Regardless of whether it gets into phase8 or not, the mjo does not look like it will be an instrument for warm forcing into early Feb.  Is Feb still around?  Anyway, easily distracted at my age.  Oh yes maybe it isnt disconcerting that the NAEFS week2 is not "cold" yet as I'm like you I just envision the storm track going off of Jacksonville if we get too deep in the cold air. It almost looks like a developing double barrel shot, one next week with a pause in the middle and then another late Jan, early Feb. This seems to be fitting HM's thoughts. Has anyone else noticed how much colder the day run solutions have been than the night runs (especially the Euro)?

[Rainshadow]

I approve Phase 8

 

Phase 4 bike:

 

 

 

Phase 8 bike:

 

[am19psu]

Phase 6 bike

 

[Rainshadow]

[Quakertown needs snow]

 

Tony we need deeper snow in that pic

 

Phase 4 bike:

 

 

 

 

Phase 8 bike:

 

 

torch mod always interrupts the fun  

[tombo82685]

Phase 6 bike

 

 

lol i think i spit up my drink when i saw that hahaha

[NaoPos]

Here's the morning updates from the GEFS, EURO and UKIE MJO outlooks.

GEFS:

UKIE:

ECM:

The ECM is less enthusiastic of the 3 shown here.

Looks like a slight stall in phase 7, maybe dying out, but then gets new life shortly afterwards.. If we can keep it going Phase 7-8-1, that would bode very well in conjunction with the ongoing MMW. You already see a good amount of high latitude blocking being progged in the Medium range.

I don't believe the window will be at the onset of the cold air assault, but rather between arctic shots. (while not historic, record breaking, it should be pretty damn ample, just not enough snow cover as tombo alluded to to stop it from moderating as it works its way east from the lakes.)

If the MJO forecasts verify into a decent pulse into those octants, we could be talking a nice window of opportunity somewhere late jan-early feb.

Also, question for the mets/advanced forecasters in here. With the assault on the PV , and its subsequent weakening, will that allow to northern stream to relax a little bit and let loose some northern stream vorts into the CONUS? im pretty sure its a yes, just wanna double check that. Thanks in advance.

I belive either one you posted or this one is the euro ens, but they are more enthused about jump starting it towards phase 8

here also are the ones i think mike ventrice posted about, they seem more gefs based?

not sure. I thought this product was the op:

Notice it just says ECMF

whereas, i thought this was the ensemble? ECM M* (mean?)

Till we figure this out, i thought we could just look at this outlook:

That should cover us till june...

[Rainshadow]

 

 

not sure. I thought this product was the op:

Notice it just says ECMF

whereas, i thought this was the ensemble? ECM M* (mean?)

Till we figure this out, i thought we could just look at this outlook:

That should cover us till june...

Excuse me, I have to go take some Dramamine.

[Rainshadow]

Tony we need deeper snow in that pic

 

 

 

torch mod always interrupts the fun

 

Well it is Mount Laurel, if it were the Poconos:

 

[tombo82685]

I like the threat of a clipper next tuesday timeframe, only thing that concerns me is that it traverses north of us and fires up a miller b at our latitude, where we miss out. With the pattern being advertised clippers may become plentiful rotating around that pv, something we haven't seen in years. Also, like the timeframe the last week in january once that pac ridge breaks down a little and impulses start firing over the ridge. With the pv over hudson bay and some greenland blocking i would think storms would cut underneath the area.

[chubbs]

I like the threat of a clipper next tuesday timeframe, only thing that concerns me is that it traverses north of us and fires up a miller b at our latitude, where we miss out. With the pattern being advertised clippers may become plentiful rotating around that pv, something we haven't seen in years. Also, like the timeframe the last week in january once that pac ridge breaks down a little and impulses start firing over the ridge. With the pv over hudson bay and some greenland blocking i would think storms would cut underneath the area.

 I am not bullish on a clipper delivering in the next 7-10 days. It could happen, but most runs track them north of here. Remnants of the  SE ridge keeps them from digging too far in the east.  There is the hint of a secondary developing near NC on day 7 but it will probably track too far off shore. Agree that things could improve the last week in January.

[Rainshadow]

I like the threat of a clipper next tuesday timeframe, only thing that concerns me is that it traverses north of us and fires up a miller b at our latitude, where we miss out. With the pattern being advertised clippers may become plentiful rotating around that pv, something we haven't seen in years. Also, like the timeframe the last week in january once that pac ridge breaks down a little and impulses start firing over the ridge. With the pv over hudson bay and some greenland blocking i would think storms would cut underneath the area.

 

 

Arctic fronts do outperform even if its not everywhere (windex type squalls),  but we have to make it a true arctic front (1000-850mb thicknesses < 1250m) not a side-swap outcome. 

[Allsnow]

Gfs looks pretty good for that clipper next week. Don't tell ray, but might be some Monmouth county enhancement. Hopefully it hold steady

[famartin]

Phase 6 bike

 

 

You and the wife?

[Mitchell Gaines]

Gfs looks pretty good for that clipper next week. Don't tell ray, but might be some Monmouth county enhancement. Hopefully it hold steady

So does the Canadian  . 

[Quakertown needs snow]

clipper looks to be best shot for the entire area since

[tombo82685]

So does the Canadian  . 

the ggem looks really good. Clipper into a miller b 

 

[Birds~69]

Temps remaining steady and actually went down a few tenths according to wunderground. 38.4 to 38.0 even in Horsham PA...

[NaoPos]

I believe the gfS has the 180hr storm, it's just offshore a bit.

Would like to see the clipper dig below us , lord knows this can only trend north from here

[Allsnow]

So does the Canadian .

Hopefully the flow is not to fast for this to happen. With the pv to out north this clipper can only go so far north?

[Allsnow]

12z euro way north with clipper. Misses us and give sne a snowfall

[Allsnow]

Fwiw 240 hr euro is beautiful looking