tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 12z euro continues trend for the day and amplifies wave 1. Assuming its thermals are like the gfs and once the 850 line passes the column is cold enough for snow it would be a 1-3 2-4 event for me burbs into Lehigh valley. Though the thicknesses are high. Screams more sleet to me but I know the gfs has high thicknesses and once the 850 passes its cold enough for snow. Temps are in the 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 12z euro continues trend for the day and amplifies wave 1. Assuming its thermals are like the gfs and once the 850 line passes the column is cold enough for snow it would be a 1-3 2-4 event for me burbs into Lehigh valley. Though the thicknesses are high. Screams more sleet to me but I know the gfs has high thicknesses and once the 850 passes its cold enough for snow. Temps are in the 30s Wave 1 is tomorrow night into Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Wave 1 is tomorrow night into Tuesday? Yea tues morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Euro also has another clipper day 7 that drops a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 12z euro continues trend for the day and amplifies wave 1. Assuming its thermals are like the gfs and once the 850 line passes the column is cold enough for snow it would be a 1-3 2-4 event for me burbs into Lehigh valley. Though the thicknesses are high. Screams more sleet to me but I know the gfs has high thicknesses and once the 850 passes its cold enough for snow. Temps are in the 30s Euro puts an inch out towards Lancaster per wunderground but there's going to be some sleet issues with that I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Euro puts an inch out towards Lancaster per wunderground but there's going to be some sleet issues with that I think... Makes sense. The low level cold is there but the warm thicknesses smells sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Also end of euro is very cold. 504 thickness about to pa tpk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Raw Euro is mid 20's next Tuesday @ PHL for a daytime high and lows in the teens Wednesday AM. Single digits in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Euro has a strong northern stream clipper that amplifies as it heads north of us. Since its north of us our area gets southerly flow temps on low 40s with some lgt precip prob rain/snow mix. Better shot of snow further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Looks to get a bit nippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I have been hearing some '93-'94 analogs for the second half of Winter being thrown out there (not naming names) and not sure I buy such a claim. The Euro 00z last night showed a significant +PNA signal in the LR, which was what the turn on a dime to cold and significant snow needed in 1994. And turn on a dime it did big time... but... not sure the cold Pacific (SST's) really support what the ECM from last night was showing. I would be interested in seeing archived SST data from Jan/Feb 1994 to see how well it matches up to the current. Not exactly seeing what would drive the PNA significantly positive like that, can this be attributed to the KW propagation and the MJO? Something is not adding up.... The Pacific is not close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Looks to get a bit nippy. Lots of roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 In 93-94 it was a mostly positive nao winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 In 93-94 it was a mostly positive nao winter yes but it was dominated by a -epo. What people don't realize that a -epo i think leads to a lot of our historic cold outbrealks. The -nao is meant for the KU type storms not necessarily cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 yes but it was dominated by a -epo. What people don't realize that a -epo i think leads to a lot of our historic cold outbrealks. The -nao is meant for the KU type storms not necessarily cold. Depending on how you rate 93-94 will depend on whether you like that or not. 93-94 certainly had plenty of ice, but KU essentially had to combine two storms into one storm to get a KU event that year, because there weren't any independent KU events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Depending on how you rate 93-94 will depend on whether you like that or not. 93-94 certainly had plenty of ice, but KU essentially had to combine two storms into one storm to get a KU event that year, because there weren't any independent KU events. I was just talking in general. Solely a -nao doesn't bring the historic cold, its a blocking pattern that slows down the flow that allows storms to travel up the coast. A -epo is more related to arctic air outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I was just talking in general. Solely a -nao doesn't bring the historic cold, its a blocking pattern that slows down the flow that allows storms to travel up the coast. A -epo is more related to arctic air outbreaks. Yeah I know. I'm just saying that, technically, there WAS a KU event that winter (going strictly by "the book"). Though certainly not a classic one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Is there a way for the storm on the 18z GFS to make a turn up the coast on the 18th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Is there a way for the storm on the 18z GFS to make a turn up the coast on the 18th? yes its possible. Some of the gefs have it. What you need is for that cold shot to be aimed south first instead of coming southeast which lowers the hgts along the east coast. If it comes more of a southward projection it will increase the hgts along the east coast allowing for a more northerly track. Though, this isn't really an east coast snow storm in my eyes, the pattern is very progressive. Also, that storm can only come so far north before that buzzsaw of a pv influences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 yes its possible. Some of the gefs have it. What you need is for that cold shot to be aimed south first instead of coming southeast which lowers the hgts along the east coast. If it comes more of a southward projection it will increase the hgts along the east coast allowing for a more northerly track. Though, this isn't really an east coast snow storm in my eyes, the pattern is very progressive. Also, that storm can only come so far north before that buzzsaw of a pv influences Also should add it depends on how strong that cutoff energy is over texas. Some models kill it there others move it towards the southeast or carolinas thus you get the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 yes its possible. Some of the gefs have it. What you need is for that cold shot to be aimed south first instead of coming southeast which lowers the hgts along the east coast. If it comes more of a southward projection it will increase the hgts along the east coast allowing for a more northerly track. Though, this isn't really an east coast snow storm in my eyes, the pattern is very progressive. Also, that storm can only come so far north before that buzzsaw of a pv influences Also good to have a stronger cutoff low in the SW when the western trough splits. GFS has been trending that way the past day or so. . A strong enough cut-off would raise heights off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 00z NAM 84 hours keeps the s/w pretty damn strong...lets see if GFS trends the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The GFS looked nice and juicy but alas a swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The GFS looked nice and juicy but alas a swing and a miss. you can see it on the surface map, the two streams stay separate, thus it shoots of the se coast giving them a good snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The GFS looked nice and juicy but alas a swing and a miss. Gets squeezed in fast flow between PV+SE high. Still time for changes. Would like to see the other models confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I like that arctic boundary next Tuesday. Probably the "best" shot for everyone...no needle threading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Aussie statistical forecasts are now showing the MJO wave dying out around P7 in 10 days, but the Roundy progs show a full evolution into P8-P1-P2-P3 by mid-February. The Roundy guidance has had bias toward more robust waves than what's actually occurred this season, so this is cause for alarm, imo. We might see the MJO hit the wall created by the enhanced Nina-ish Walker Circulation and head back to the seasonal base state (-PNA/-AO/SE Ridge) sooner rather than later (like say Jan 26-30). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I like that arctic boundary next Tuesday. Probably the "best" shot for everyone...no needle threading. Finally no boundary layer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Aussie statistical forecasts are now showing the MJO wave dying out around P7 in 10 days, but the Roundy progs show a full evolution into P8-P1-P2-P3 by mid-February. The Roundy guidance has had bias toward more robust waves than what's actually occurred this season, so this is cause for alarm, imo. We might see the MJO hit the wall created by the enhanced Nina-ish Walker Circulation and head back to the seasonal base state (-PNA/-AO/SE Ridge) sooner rather than later (like say Jan 26-30). Are you thinking that the ssw will run its course by the end of the month? It seems that the tropospheric response with this one is shorter or maybe it just feels that way because everyone has been talking about it. On the other hand, the Roundy guidance almost seems too slow with the progression to P3? I guess we will see what the EC thinks later today although the week 3 & 4 have seemed noisier than last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Aussie statistical forecasts are now showing the MJO wave dying out around P7 in 10 days, but the Roundy progs show a full evolution into P8-P1-P2-P3 by mid-February. The Roundy guidance has had bias toward more robust waves than what's actually occurred this season, so this is cause for alarm, imo. We might see the MJO hit the wall created by the enhanced Nina-ish Walker Circulation and head back to the seasonal base state (-PNA/-AO/SE Ridge) sooner rather than later (like say Jan 26-30). The 10 day Euro ensembles are lowering the W coast ridge. Better chance of storminess and a snow threat in the split flow as long as PV is nearby, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.