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Medium Range-Long Range thread


NaoPos

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FYI -- Euro quickly relaxes the region's cold shot next weekend.  12z shows 50+ next Sunday. :lol:

 

Round 2 is coming the week after but there will be a break in there for a day or two...looks like yo-yo's and some back-and-forth.

 

that clipper goes north so we torch under southerly winds. The 2nd wall of cold looks pretty serious. Looks like the pv is going to track across maine. Though, the euro has a history of going way to bullish on cold in the extended range then as it gets closer it backs off.

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like the gfs, euro says the arctic cold is around the 21st of jan. pv slides across maine. thickness touch 504 in philly with below that in lehigh valley and pocs. Low temp gets between 15-10 for philly area and nw burbs...10 or less in lehigh valley with around 5 in the pocs. Another blast looks to be coming post 240 hrs as a monster pos pna/-epo sets up. The nao is pretty positive also. The h5 pattern screams cold and dry with clippers as only form of precip.

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who was saying arctic outbreak this weekend? accuweather? Most of the mets on here agree it would be after the 20th.

 

The usual snake oil types were saying on/around 1/15.

 

That said, I still think the 1/21 stuff will be less cold than modeled now.  Colder than this coming Friday but I don't think we see 850's of -20 C when we get to reality.

 

Coldest of season?  Probably.

 

As cold as Euro is modeling?  Probably not.

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The usual snake oil types were saying on/around 1/15.

 

That said, I still think the 1/21 stuff will be less cold than modeled now.  Colder than this coming Friday but I don't think we see 850's of -20 C when we get to reality.

 

Coldest of season?  Probably.

 

As cold as Euro is modeling?  Probably not.

 

I agree this is most likely overdone... and also slight moderation around the 19th before the crash comes through, but 50's might be a stretch, at least up my way.  PHL verbatim hits 50 exactly on the 19th per the extraction data, ABE is 44.  ECM EPS ENS showed a more GFS-like solution last night, and it will be interesting to see if this continues.

Personally I would rather the PV be oriented further West similar to the 12z GFS solution, otherwise it's bitterly cold and very dry.  Not good for flu virus eradication or golfing... 

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The usual snake oil types were saying on/around 1/15.

 

That said, I still think the 1/21 stuff will be less cold than modeled now.  Colder than this coming Friday but I don't think we see 850's of -20 C when we get to reality.

 

Coldest of season?  Probably.

 

As cold as Euro is modeling?  Probably not.

agreed, and coming over bare ground as it looks now.

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this is the cips analog composite for the 12z gfs. It only runs at 0z and 12z. Basically it runs all the patterns that are forecasted to materialize like the gfs depicts and plost the dates and the outcomes precip wise and snow wise. Below is the avg for snowfall

COOPmeangfs212F072.png

I assume that the scale is inches not mm, right?

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who was saying arctic outbreak this weekend? accuweather? Most of the mets on here agree it would be after the 20th.

 

 

From January 9th:

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/breaking/20130109_Brutal_cold_wave_to_ruin_mild_spell_.html

 

Maybe I shouldn't be shocked, but some of those comments were really nasty.

 

Now after the 21st, that one makes more sense...

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From January 9th:

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/breaking/20130109_Brutal_cold_wave_to_ruin_mild_spell_.html

 

Maybe I shouldn't be shocked, but some of those comments were really nasty.

 

Now after the 21st, that one makes more sense...

 

Whoever writes their headlines at philly.com feeds into it.  They did something along the lines of "coldest in two years" at the beginning of January when nothing showed anything close to that level of cold coming in two weeks ago (hell, we had 5 sub 20 lows last January...we haven't yet gone below 25 yet at PHL).

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Whoever writes their headlines at philly.com feeds into it.  They did something along the lines of "coldest in two years" at the beginning of January when nothing showed anything close to that level of cold coming in two weeks ago (hell, we had 5 sub 20 lows last January...we haven't yet gone below 25 yet at PHL).

 

I think Tony Wood has told me that the headline writer and the person who actually writes the articles are not necessarily one in the same.  I suppose "The return of near normal temps" would not grab as many looks.

 

The SSW part of this change is doing its part:

 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series.php

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Unfortunately when the polar vortex drops into our neck of woods next weekend the NAO looks to be mildly positive creating a situation where there is no upstream blocking. Would seem to be very hard to get anything to come up the coast.

The ensemble average is cold+dry. Need something not captured in the average like a clipper digging further s

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Not saying this is going to happen but it is interesting that most of our coastal storms seem to very often start out from a distance as no shot of turning up the coast and then....GFS of course is the worst with this bias but something to keep in mind. I still expect a winter event (not necessarily all snow) for the entire region over the next 15 days

 

The ensemble average is cold+dry. Need something not captured in the average like a clipper digging further s

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I have been hearing some '93-'94 analogs for the second half of Winter being thrown out there (not naming names) and not sure I buy such a claim.  The Euro 00z last night showed a significant +PNA signal in the LR, which was what the turn on a dime to cold and significant snow needed in 1994.  And turn on a dime it did big time... but... not sure the cold Pacific (SST's) really support what the ECM from last night was showing.  I would be interested in seeing archived SST data from Jan/Feb 1994 to see how well it matches up to the current.  Not exactly seeing what would drive the PNA significantly positive like that, can this be attributed to the KW propagation and the MJO?  Something is not adding up....

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I have been hearing some '93-'94 analogs for the second half of Winter being thrown out there (not naming names) and not sure I buy such a claim.  The Euro 00z last night showed a significant +PNA signal in the LR, which was what the turn on a dime to cold and significant snow needed in 1994.  And turn on a dime it did big time... but... not sure the cold Pacific (SST's) really support what the ECM from last night was showing.  I would be interested in seeing archived SST data from Jan/Feb 1994 to see how well it matches up to the current.  Not exactly seeing what would drive the PNA significantly positive like that, can this be attributed to the KW propagation and the MJO?  Something is not adding up....

the mjo and mtn torque are both trending favorable for an increase in a positive pna, but i don't know if its a steroid pos pna like some models have it.

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