phlwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 helluva "arctic" outbreak at the end of this week. 1/21 on will be pretty cold but I would imagine modeling will trend less harsh as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 FYI -- Euro quickly relaxes the region's cold shot next weekend. 12z shows 50+ next Sunday. Round 2 is coming the week after but there will be a break in there for a day or two...looks like yo-yo's and some back-and-forth. that clipper goes north so we torch under southerly winds. The 2nd wall of cold looks pretty serious. Looks like the pv is going to track across maine. Though, the euro has a history of going way to bullish on cold in the extended range then as it gets closer it backs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 helluva "arctic" outbreak at the end of this week. 1/21 on will be pretty cold but I would imagine modeling will trend less harsh as we close in. who was saying arctic outbreak this weekend? accuweather? Most of the mets on here agree it would be after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 like the gfs, euro says the arctic cold is around the 21st of jan. pv slides across maine. thickness touch 504 in philly with below that in lehigh valley and pocs. Low temp gets between 15-10 for philly area and nw burbs...10 or less in lehigh valley with around 5 in the pocs. Another blast looks to be coming post 240 hrs as a monster pos pna/-epo sets up. The nao is pretty positive also. The h5 pattern screams cold and dry with clippers as only form of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 who was saying arctic outbreak this weekend? accuweather? Most of the mets on here agree it would be after the 20th. The usual snake oil types were saying on/around 1/15. That said, I still think the 1/21 stuff will be less cold than modeled now. Colder than this coming Friday but I don't think we see 850's of -20 C when we get to reality. Coldest of season? Probably. As cold as Euro is modeling? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The usual snake oil types were saying on/around 1/15. That said, I still think the 1/21 stuff will be less cold than modeled now. Colder than this coming Friday but I don't think we see 850's of -20 C when we get to reality. Coldest of season? Probably. As cold as Euro is modeling? Probably not. I agree this is most likely overdone... and also slight moderation around the 19th before the crash comes through, but 50's might be a stretch, at least up my way. PHL verbatim hits 50 exactly on the 19th per the extraction data, ABE is 44. ECM EPS ENS showed a more GFS-like solution last night, and it will be interesting to see if this continues. Personally I would rather the PV be oriented further West similar to the 12z GFS solution, otherwise it's bitterly cold and very dry. Not good for flu virus eradication or golfing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The usual snake oil types were saying on/around 1/15. That said, I still think the 1/21 stuff will be less cold than modeled now. Colder than this coming Friday but I don't think we see 850's of -20 C when we get to reality. Coldest of season? Probably. As cold as Euro is modeling? Probably not. agreed, and coming over bare ground as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I stand corrected... gets to the low 50's at PHL on the 19th. Was looking at an old timestamp. Bottom drops out after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 who was saying arctic outbreak this weekend? accuweather? Most of the mets on here agree it would be after the 20th. Even read the sub title! I was spot on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 wave 1 is mon night into tues morn. Wave 2 is tues night into wednesday morning. Looks like the Euro is about 12 hrs faster on round 1 than the GFS. Comes through before its cold enough to snow near I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 this is the cips analog composite for the 12z gfs. It only runs at 0z and 12z. Basically it runs all the patterns that are forecasted to materialize like the gfs depicts and plost the dates and the outcomes precip wise and snow wise. Below is the avg for snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 this is the cips analog composite for the 12z gfs. It only runs at 0z and 12z. Basically it runs all the patterns that are forecasted to materialize like the gfs depicts and plost the dates and the outcomes precip wise and snow wise. Below is the avg for snowfall I assume that the scale is inches not mm, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I assume that the scale is inches not mm, right? yea, its inches. so 2 inches that map is showing for average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Just snow showers on the 18z gfs. warmer+drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Just snow showers on the 18z gfs. warmer+drier to me, it looked like the northern stream was less involved. Thus you got a flatter wave and less of a southward ooze of colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 while the gfs has gone back to a flatter solution and warmer. The 0z ggem (probably to strong again) reverted back to its solutions 2 days ago with a decent snow event from the river north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 186-204 starts 1 helluva PNA spike on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Fun times ahead guys. Winter is finally back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Day 9 Euro has an arctic front thump of an inch or so of snow. Might be Philly's biggest snow of the winter at that point if Tuesday or Wednesday don't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Unfortunately when the polar vortex drops into our neck of woods next weekend the NAO looks to be mildly positive creating a situation where there is no upstream blocking. Would seem to be very hard to get anything to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 who was saying arctic outbreak this weekend? accuweather? Most of the mets on here agree it would be after the 20th. From January 9th: http://www.philly.com/philly/news/breaking/20130109_Brutal_cold_wave_to_ruin_mild_spell_.html Maybe I shouldn't be shocked, but some of those comments were really nasty. Now after the 21st, that one makes more sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 From January 9th: http://www.philly.com/philly/news/breaking/20130109_Brutal_cold_wave_to_ruin_mild_spell_.html Maybe I shouldn't be shocked, but some of those comments were really nasty. Now after the 21st, that one makes more sense... Whoever writes their headlines at philly.com feeds into it. They did something along the lines of "coldest in two years" at the beginning of January when nothing showed anything close to that level of cold coming in two weeks ago (hell, we had 5 sub 20 lows last January...we haven't yet gone below 25 yet at PHL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Whoever writes their headlines at philly.com feeds into it. They did something along the lines of "coldest in two years" at the beginning of January when nothing showed anything close to that level of cold coming in two weeks ago (hell, we had 5 sub 20 lows last January...we haven't yet gone below 25 yet at PHL). I think Tony Wood has told me that the headline writer and the person who actually writes the articles are not necessarily one in the same. I suppose "The return of near normal temps" would not grab as many looks. The SSW part of this change is doing its part: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Props to Isotherm for calling that a SSW would occur in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The 12z and 06z GFS only bring rain to DE and far Southern NJ early this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The 12z and 06z GFS only bring rain to DE and far Southern NJ early this week. The US models were not very bullish on our snow chances overnight. The 12z NAM has a touch of snow in N+W suburbs late mon night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Unfortunately when the polar vortex drops into our neck of woods next weekend the NAO looks to be mildly positive creating a situation where there is no upstream blocking. Would seem to be very hard to get anything to come up the coast. The ensemble average is cold+dry. Need something not captured in the average like a clipper digging further s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Not saying this is going to happen but it is interesting that most of our coastal storms seem to very often start out from a distance as no shot of turning up the coast and then....GFS of course is the worst with this bias but something to keep in mind. I still expect a winter event (not necessarily all snow) for the entire region over the next 15 days The ensemble average is cold+dry. Need something not captured in the average like a clipper digging further s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I have been hearing some '93-'94 analogs for the second half of Winter being thrown out there (not naming names) and not sure I buy such a claim. The Euro 00z last night showed a significant +PNA signal in the LR, which was what the turn on a dime to cold and significant snow needed in 1994. And turn on a dime it did big time... but... not sure the cold Pacific (SST's) really support what the ECM from last night was showing. I would be interested in seeing archived SST data from Jan/Feb 1994 to see how well it matches up to the current. Not exactly seeing what would drive the PNA significantly positive like that, can this be attributed to the KW propagation and the MJO? Something is not adding up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I have been hearing some '93-'94 analogs for the second half of Winter being thrown out there (not naming names) and not sure I buy such a claim. The Euro 00z last night showed a significant +PNA signal in the LR, which was what the turn on a dime to cold and significant snow needed in 1994. And turn on a dime it did big time... but... not sure the cold Pacific (SST's) really support what the ECM from last night was showing. I would be interested in seeing archived SST data from Jan/Feb 1994 to see how well it matches up to the current. Not exactly seeing what would drive the PNA significantly positive like that, can this be attributed to the KW propagation and the MJO? Something is not adding up.... the mjo and mtn torque are both trending favorable for an increase in a positive pna, but i don't know if its a steroid pos pna like some models have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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