chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 PHL bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The gfs is pretty cold, basically gets sleet all the way to acy with a cold low levels and warm mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Looking at the text output it's like the snow line is right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The gfs is pretty cold, basically gets sleet all the way to acy with a cold low levels and warm mid levels. This is a nice solution. The cold air push monday night and the waves on tuesday are both better. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Looking at the text output it's like the snow line is right over my house. yea its pretty isothermal almost, but reality its probably sleet and snow. Warm mid levels around the 850mb. Wave number 2 is sleet and probably some rain. It's pretty isothermal almost, but again warm mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Could be all snow near phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Is it just me or is the polar vortex creeping further north on most runs, which would cause potential arctic shots to be milder. Yet this same scenario is what is allowing the wave on the front next week to creep north rather than be suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 yea its pretty isothermal almost, but reality its probably sleet and snow. Warm mid levels around the 850mb. Wave number 2 is sleet and probably some rain. It's pretty isothermal almost, but again warm mid levels. Agree with that there is a warm nose at 850 mb regions. See mainly snow and sleet with rain south NJ and most of DE based on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Is it just me or is the polar vortex creeping further north on most runs, which would cause potential arctic shots to be milder. Yet this same scenario is what is allowing the wave on the front next week to creep north rather than be suppressed Could be. Our nemisis the SE high is also helping. Just a little stronger on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Is it just me or is the polar vortex creeping further north on most runs, which would cause potential arctic shots to be milder. Yet this same scenario is what is allowing the wave on the front next week to creep north rather than be suppressed Remember, thats a pig of a se ridge down there, so its going to take some time for that to dwindle, which is giving our shot at the snow. Also, you don't want that pv to far south or the confluence will just shear things to pieces. That pv is wound up and tight, so a little further south tick of it wouldn't hurt since its stationed over the northern part of hudson bay.The euro is a little more aggressive with the colder air. I think that has to do with their forecast for the mjo. Gfs mjo has it looping around in phase 6 for a while then going into phase 7, which makes it seem like it takes longer for the cold air to come down. The euro and its ens move it faster into phase 7. Also, just starting to so an upward (positive) tick in the mtn torque which may be the start for some meridonal flow down the road if it continues. Could be giving more ground to a positive pna development the weeklies had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The ggem has come in flatter with the 2nd wave idea(go figure, like phlwx mentioned to phased). Though it still is light snow from about lehigh valley south. Almost a continuous lgt snow over phl area for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 weenie delight bread and milk super market red alert run of the gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 weenie delight bread and milk super market red alert run of the gfs lol Still eventually drops the PV south. Snow on D10. Below zero here on day 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 weenie delight bread and milk super market red alert run of the gfs lol 252 hr ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 12z gefs still look good on wave 1 for tuesday for the philly area and nw burbs. Wave 2, some members show some precip, but majority are still off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 12z gefs still look good on wave 1 for tuesday for the philly area and nw burbs. Wave 2, some members show some precip, but majority are still off shore. To go along with that, here is the GEFS image... still looks like more of a snow showers/ very minor accums deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 BUFKIT confirms all snow at phl+ilg except for some mixing near the end roughly 0.6" liquid equivalent as snow. More mixing at mlv but still 80% snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 To go along with that, here is the GEFS image... still looks like more of a snow showers/ very minor accums deal. Yea, its not as robust as the operational. Total qpf looks like .1 on the gefs for the i95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 BUFKIT confirms all snow at phl+ilg except for some mixing near the end roughly 0.6" liquid equivalent as snow. More mixing at mlv but still 80% snow Yes GFS forecast soundings are just cold enough to not have sleet as an issue; the GFS has become wetter over the last couple of runs without becoming thermally warmer. Just the way this winter, the jet position and how reality normally goes I get a little queasy with how the GFS just boldly brings the cold air to the coast. Regardless a wintry ptype stripe along the northwest edge is a logical solution with this type of 500mb set-up, just not sure as to where yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yea, its not as robust as the operational. Total qpf looks like .1 on the gefs for the i95 corridor. The GEFS haven't changed much the past day or so in the 1-2" range. Not much support for the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yea, its not as robust as the operational. Total qpf looks like .1 on the gefs for the i95 corridor. Meh flatter southeast solutions on poorer resolution ensemble members almost a natural expected outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 12z euro, assuming that their isn't much mid level warming below the 850mb like the gfs and some decent low level cold it has sleet around the city. with some very light snow on the northern edge up to lehigh valley for wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 for wave 2, euro continues to bump the wave north. 0z run had precip skirting the coast. 12z euro now gets precip up to about the lehugh valley again. About .1 qpf for the city which is all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 ALso, just again going off the 850s most of south jersey is snow. But the thicknesses are questionable. They get over .1 closer to .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 ALso, just again going off the 850s most of south jersey is snow. But the thicknesses are questionable. They get over .1 closer to .25 tombo what are the hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 tombo what are the hrs? wave 1 is mon night into tues morn. Wave 2 is tues night into wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 euro is more bullish than the gfs with the cold shot after these waves. Brings 510 thickness to phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 euro is more bullish than the gfs with the cold shot after these waves. Brings 510 thickness to phl. Lows only get to 25 in the city per Euro...teens north of ABE on Friday and Saturday AM. If we coax a couple of inches out that'll help on the lows but snowpack is getting beat down to our northwest this weekend...won't be much assistance from that with next week's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 FYI -- Euro quickly relaxes the region's cold shot next weekend. 12z shows 50+ next Sunday. Round 2 is coming the week after but there will be a break in there for a day or two...looks like yo-yo's and some back-and-forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Lows only get to 25 in the city per Euro...teens north of ABE on Friday and Saturday AM. If we coax a couple of inches out that'll help on the lows but snowpack is getting beat down to our northwest this weekend...won't be much assistance from that with next week's cold. also, even after those waves past the day time highs in the 40s before that first wave of cold comes in. So who knows if that snow would even make it till then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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