Bobby EPAWA Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 EC dry and cold. Still not ready to jump off idea of a wave early-mid next week, we'll see. I agree with you... and the GGEM has the support of the Ukie at 12z FWIW. What these two models are doing are showing no cutoff low in the desert SW like the GFS and ECM have. Instead a piece of energy is sent out ahead of the PV diving south instead of trapping it and cutting it off. Some model biases may be in play here. I wouldn't nap on this one... looks to be a timing issue with PV placement/advance and strength. Further North/slower and a tad weaker and it's game on. My *theory* is that the ECM is holding back the s/w energy (typical) and the GFS does the same but due to the diving PV coming south way too fast and too strong and cutting off the low because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Thanks for adding to the discussion, Mike. Just as a heads up, if you really want to understand what Mike is talking about, you should read a primer of principal component analysis. That's the PCs he is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 brrr.. nice -EPO ( low heights near Aleutians) +PNA, -AO.. the wildcard would the the NAO. Either way, its wintery. I think the NAO will stay negative, especially as the strat warming starts propagating downwards to the tropopause. That strat warming is the real deal. Also, the MJO is gonna do some magic on the Pac side of things. Can't help but be excited about the end of Jan-beginning of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Thanks for adding to the discussion, Mike. Just as a heads up, if you really want to understand what Mike is talking about, you should read a primer of principal component analysis. That's the PCs he is talking about. Do you have a link for that adam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 brrr.. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1357936031.832797.jpg nice -EPO ( low heights near Aleutians) +PNA, -AO.. the wildcard would the the NAO. Either way, its wintery. I think the NAO will stay negative, especially as the strat warming starts propagating downwards to the tropopause. That strat warming is the real deal. Also, the MJO is gonna do some magic on the Pac side of things. Can't help but be excited about the end of Jan-beginning of Feb. Also, have to watch for clippers and pieces of energy rotating around that pv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Do you have a link for that adam? Wikipedia is usually good place to start for mathy nerdy stuff. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal_component_analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 As always thanks Mike! Always learning from you. Hope you don't start charging us anytime soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 The Euro ens look a little more robust and a little warmer with the wave on Tues AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 As always thanks Mike! Always learning from you. Hope you don't start charging us anytime soon! don't give him any ideas like that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 brrr.. eh, by the time it gets down to the surface it won't be that brrr, just brr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Mike, great news to hear. That would really help the -EPO pattern if it were to verify. BY the way, great disco you've been adding. Really goos stuff and understanding the MJO. Very much appreciated fella. Seems like the gefs and gem are the robust ones, relatively speaking. The euro on that wave had about a tenth or so for the region. The 850s were below but thicknesses were high not sure if that's frozen or not. Can't see low level temps. Great discussion today guys. Mike hope you are a frequent visitor to our forum your insight is great along with all the other mets. Thanks for adding to the discussion, Mike. Just as a heads up, if you really want to understand what Mike is talking about, you should read a primer of principal component analysis. That's the PCs he is talking about. As always thanks Mike! Always learning from you. Hope you don't start charging us anytime soon! No problem guys... I'm still learning and it helps me to discuss it with everyone here. To QVectorman: The only thing that I would want is if we were at the same conference, for yo to say hello. It's always nice to put a face to the name That goes for everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 The PV probably won't as robust in reality as it is on the post-truncation GFS but it's still supportive of in the 30's for highs/20's for lows pattern...would be colder if there were good snowpack nearby but this weekend will beat it down across Northern/Western PA and Upstate NY a fair bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 brrr.. nice -EPO ( low heights near Aleutians) +PNA, -AO.. the wildcard would the the NAO. Either way, its wintery. I think the NAO will stay negative, especially as the strat warming starts propagating downwards to the tropopause. That strat warming is the real deal. Also, the MJO is gonna do some magic on the Pac side of things. Can't help but be excited about the end of Jan-beginning of Feb. Euro ENS is troughy along the East Coast 1/24-1/26 at the surface. Wouldn't shock if we had a crack at it then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 It might be... There's just no way to be certain unless either CPC or matt wheeler creates partial fraction phase space diagrams, similar to what I have on my MJO tab for the VPM. With respect to my VPM indices, U200 and VP200 are in phase with U850. The miniloop at D7 that VPM is starting to suggest appears to be dominated by upper-level signals, which I believe can be attributed to the development of a CCKW near the dateline (see above post). Full VPM with ENSO: Parial VPM with ENSO phase space diagrams: Thank-you Mike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 EC dry and cold. Still not ready to jump off idea of a wave early-mid next week, we'll see. I agree with you... and the GGEM has the support of the Ukie at 12z FWIW. What these two models are doing are showing no cutoff low in the desert SW like the GFS and ECM have. Instead a piece of energy is sent out ahead of the PV diving south instead of trapping it and cutting it off. Some model biases may be in play here. I wouldn't nap on this one... looks to be a timing issue with PV placement/advance and strength. Further North/slower and a tad weaker and it's game on. My *theory* is that the ECM is holding back the s/w energy (typical) and the GFS does the same but due to the diving PV coming south way too fast and too strong and cutting off the low because of that. Pattern changing time, wouldn't bank on much coherency in the medium range. That being said I havent been impressed by the can ggem in the medium range this winter. That being said said, I'd be looking on how much or little each successive wave drags the cold front farther south. The last one might work or at least might work for part of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Pattern changing time, wouldn't bank on much coherency in the medium range. That being said I havent been impressed by the can ggem in the medium range this winter. That being said said, I'd be looking on how much or little each successive wave drags the cold front farther south. The last one might work or at least might work for part of our area. I probably would give it next to NO attention if it didn't have the Ukie on board... Ukie being 2nd in historical verification and doesn't play the s/w energy being held back game like the ECM (or at least not as often) has me interested. It could be worse - I could be citing support of the *cough* 18z Dgex *cough* (sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I probably would give it next to NO attention if it didn't have the Ukie on board... Ukie being 2nd in historical verification and doesn't play the s/w energy being held back game like the ECM (or at least not as often) has me interested. It could be worse - I could be citing support of the *cough* 18z Dgex *cough* (sarcasm) The CIPS analogs do show some snow events for the area at the 96 hour mark based on the upper air pattern. 11/29/05 and 1/31/96 are showing up...we discussed in the NYC thread how the pattern in that range does somewhat resemble 1/31-2/2/96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I think the GFS is starting to see our wave idea. Should at least keep us busy this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I think the GFS is starting to see our wave idea. Should at least keep us busy this weekend. Yeah GFS is step in the right direction maybe an inch or two from PHL S+E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 GOOFUS drops the PV into the lakes long range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Several runs in a row now where it has dropped the motherlode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 0z ggem brings some lgt snow and ice for the region minus extreme south jersey for the tues event into wednesday. It then has a much larger and wintry storm for wed night -thurs time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 0z gefs mean seems a little more enthused with that wave during the day on tuesday compared to 18z. It also looks like some members have that other wave during the day on wednesday, but it's only a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 euro has more precip for the area for tuesday but its warmer than the ggem and gfs with pretty high thicknesses and the surface looks warm around the city points south an east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 the 2nd follow up wave on wednesday is a little closer to the coast than the 12z run. Skirts delmarva and jersey beaches with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 0z ggem brings some lgt snow and ice for the region minus extreme south jersey for the tues event into wednesday. It then has a much larger and wintry storm for wed night -thurs time period. Meh...overphased a bit. Probably flattens out some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I probably would give it next to NO attention if it didn't have the Ukie on board... Ukie being 2nd in historical verification and doesn't play the s/w energy being held back game like the ECM (or at least not as often) has me interested. It could be worse - I could be citing support of the *cough* 18z Dgex *cough* (sarcasm) I look at it as the reverse, if I have the same solution as it does, what am I doing wrong? That being said looks like we start having thermal issues (again) here if that solution comes to fruition on either model, but you would cash in pretty nicely. As an aside locally get an arctic blast at the least or a pattern change in general I have seen a two week lag folllowing an active MJO passing into P6. So that blast (magnitude who knows) around Jan 24/25 makes (past performance) timing sense. It would also corroborate some of the Euro weeklies you were talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 06 GFS teases the area with a couple of waves. GEFS continues to be a little more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Gfs is coming in better with the waves next week. Looks like some frozen precip for good amount of the area on wave 1 that sees precip except extreme south jersey. Qpf amounts around .25 for wave 1 for phl. About .1 far nw burbs. Wave 2 also snow in phl with another .25 all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 12z GFS has light snow on tuesday - could be a couple of inches in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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