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Medium Range-Long Range thread


NaoPos

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EC dry and cold. Still not ready to jump off idea of a wave early-mid next week, we'll see. 

 

I agree with you... and the GGEM has the support of the Ukie at 12z FWIW.

 

What these two models are doing are showing no cutoff low in the desert SW like the GFS and ECM have.  Instead a piece of energy is sent out ahead of the PV diving south instead of trapping it and cutting it off.  Some model biases may be in play here.  I wouldn't nap on this one... looks to be a timing issue with PV placement/advance and strength.  Further North/slower and a tad weaker and it's game on.  My *theory* is that the ECM is holding back the s/w energy (typical) and the GFS does the same but due to the diving PV coming south way too fast and too strong and cutting off the low because of that.

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brrr..

ma8ysenu.jpg

post-810-135793603089.jpg

nice -EPO ( low heights near Aleutians) +PNA, -AO.. the wildcard would the the NAO. Either way, its wintery. I think the NAO will stay negative, especially as the strat warming starts propagating downwards to the tropopause. That strat warming is the real deal. Also, the MJO is gonna do some magic on the Pac side of things. Can't help but be excited about the end of Jan-beginning of Feb.

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brrr..

ma8ysenu.jpg

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1357936031.832797.jpg

nice -EPO ( low heights near Aleutians) +PNA, -AO.. the wildcard would the the NAO. Either way, its wintery. I think the NAO will stay negative, especially as the strat warming starts propagating downwards to the tropopause. That strat warming is the real deal. Also, the MJO is gonna do some magic on the Pac side of things. Can't help but be excited about the end of Jan-beginning of Feb.

Also, have to watch for clippers and pieces of energy rotating around that pv

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Mike, great news to hear. That would really help the -EPO pattern if it were to verify. BY the way, great disco you've been adding. Really goos stuff and understanding the MJO. Very much appreciated fella.

 

 

Seems like the gefs and gem are the robust ones, relatively speaking. The euro on that wave had about a tenth or so for the region. The 850s were below but thicknesses were high not sure if that's frozen or not. Can't see low level temps. Great discussion today guys. Mike hope you are a frequent visitor to our forum your insight is great along with all the other mets.

 

 

Thanks for adding to the discussion, Mike. Just as a heads up, if you really want to understand what Mike is talking about, you should read a primer of principal component analysis. That's the PCs he is talking about.

 

 

As always thanks Mike! Always learning from you. Hope you don't start charging us anytime soon!

 

No problem guys... I'm still learning and it helps me to discuss it with everyone here. To QVectorman: The only thing that I would want is if we were at the same conference, for yo to say hello. It's always nice to put a face to the name :) That goes for everyone here.

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The PV probably won't as robust in reality as it is on the post-truncation GFS but it's still supportive of in the 30's for highs/20's for lows pattern...would be colder if there were good snowpack nearby but this weekend will beat it down across Northern/Western PA and Upstate NY a fair bit.

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brrr..

nice -EPO ( low heights near Aleutians) +PNA, -AO.. the wildcard would the the NAO. Either way, its wintery. I think the NAO will stay negative, especially as the strat warming starts propagating downwards to the tropopause. That strat warming is the real deal. Also, the MJO is gonna do some magic on the Pac side of things. Can't help but be excited about the end of Jan-beginning of Feb.

 

Euro ENS is troughy along the East Coast 1/24-1/26 at the surface. ;)  Wouldn't shock if we had a crack at it then.

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It might be... There's just no way to be certain unless either CPC or matt wheeler creates partial fraction phase space diagrams, similar to what I have on my MJO tab for the VPM. With respect to my VPM indices, U200 and VP200 are in phase with U850. The miniloop at D7 that VPM is starting to suggest appears to be dominated by upper-level signals, which I believe can be attributed to the development of a CCKW near the dateline (see above post).

 

Full VPM with ENSO:

last.90d.RMMPhase.png

 

Parial VPM with ENSO phase space diagrams:

 

 

last.90d.RMMPhase_VP200.pnglast.90d.RMMPhase_U200.pnglast.90d.RMMPhase_U850.png
 

Thank-you Mike!

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EC dry and cold. Still not ready to jump off idea of a wave early-mid next week, we'll see. 

 

I agree with you... and the GGEM has the support of the Ukie at 12z FWIW.

 

What these two models are doing are showing no cutoff low in the desert SW like the GFS and ECM have.  Instead a piece of energy is sent out ahead of the PV diving south instead of trapping it and cutting it off.  Some model biases may be in play here.  I wouldn't nap on this one... looks to be a timing issue with PV placement/advance and strength.  Further North/slower and a tad weaker and it's game on.  My *theory* is that the ECM is holding back the s/w energy (typical) and the GFS does the same but due to the diving PV coming south way too fast and too strong and cutting off the low because of that.

Pattern changing time, wouldn't bank on much coherency in the medium range.  That being said I havent been impressed by the can ggem in the medium range this winter.  That being said said, I'd be looking on how much or little each successive wave drags the cold front farther south.  The last one might work or at least might work for part of our area.

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Pattern changing time, wouldn't bank on much coherency in the medium range.  That being said I havent been impressed by the can ggem in the medium range this winter.  That being said said, I'd be looking on how much or little each successive wave drags the cold front farther south.  The last one might work or at least might work for part of our area.

I probably would give it next to NO attention if it didn't have the Ukie on board... Ukie being 2nd in historical verification and doesn't play the s/w energy being held back game like the ECM (or at least not as often) has me interested.  It could be worse - I could be citing support of the *cough* 18z Dgex *cough* (sarcasm) 

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I probably would give it next to NO attention if it didn't have the Ukie on board... Ukie being 2nd in historical verification and doesn't play the s/w energy being held back game like the ECM (or at least not as often) has me interested.  It could be worse - I could be citing support of the *cough* 18z Dgex *cough* (sarcasm) 

The CIPS analogs do show some snow events for the area at the 96 hour mark based on the upper air pattern.  11/29/05 and 1/31/96 are showing up...we discussed in the NYC thread how the pattern in that range does somewhat resemble 1/31-2/2/96.

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0z ggem brings some lgt snow and ice for the region minus extreme south jersey for the tues event into wednesday. It then has a much larger and wintry storm for wed night -thurs time period. 

 

Meh...overphased a bit.  Probably flattens out some.

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I probably would give it next to NO attention if it didn't have the Ukie on board... Ukie being 2nd in historical verification and doesn't play the s/w energy being held back game like the ECM (or at least not as often) has me interested.  It could be worse - I could be citing support of the *cough* 18z Dgex *cough* (sarcasm) 

 

 

I look at it as the reverse, if I have the same solution as it does, what am I doing wrong?   That being said looks like we start having thermal issues (again) here if that solution comes to fruition on either model, but you would cash in pretty nicely.

 

As an aside locally get an arctic blast at the least or a pattern change in general I have seen a two week lag folllowing an active MJO passing into P6.  So that blast (magnitude who knows) around Jan 24/25 makes (past performance) timing sense.  It would also corroborate some of the Euro weeklies you were talking about.

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