NaoPos Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Discuss... Jan looks boring as we all know til about the 20th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 0z GFS shows a pretty favorable Pac /+PNA 240+.... i know i know, it's out there. Not sure whether to believe it or not. Haven't looked at the latest MJO outlooks, or any other catalyst. Either way, it centers a trough over east central COnus/MS river, and the PNA reloads in a cycle. Seems to go against the EURO and its own ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I think the lack of response in here may answer your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 GFS Ensemble mean agrees with the EC...and both are Quizno's toasty for the Day 11-15 range although the GFS Ens tries to mute the warming at the very end of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 06z GFS brings back the need to build an ark in SNJ. Latest GEFS with the MJO collapses it rather quickly, I think that would be too soon to be an instrument for change. Last Roundy outlook I saw didn't look that great either. Still some poleward fluxing wrt to the stratosphere. Beyond that looks like the mountain torquing is rising again and it includes Asia. All of this though we're in the second half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Yeah, Tony. I could see January playing out similarly to December, with a generally warm pattern through about the 20th-25th, then turning wintry at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Yeah, Tony. I could see January playing out similarly to December, with a generally warm pattern through about the 20th-25th, then turning wintry at the end of the month. Good to know, I can take off for about 3 weeks, LOL. What type of temps are we looking at mid 40's or 50's for highs after this week? Thanks and Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Yeah, Tony. I could see January playing out similarly to December, with a generally warm pattern through about the 20th-25th, then turning wintry at the end of the month. This winter is remembering December. Just have to hope we can get a solid cold period in the 2nd half of Jan or Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I always believed this winter will go back and forth in temps with feb having the coldest temps. January has warmed the most of the the winter months over the last 15 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 0z euro ens are torched, 6z gfs/gEfS keeps the mean trough out west.. Pretty good agreement. So in the meantime, who wants to golf?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Yeah, Tony. I could see January playing out similarly to December, with a generally warm pattern through about the 20th-25th, then turning wintry at the end of the month. I agree. I think we continue to follow the 46-47 and other cool neutral analogs here. For the time being, they have been the strongest long range tool, too. If we get the mid-January pattern being advertised on the models to show up this spring, it's going to be a long tornado season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I agree. I think we continue to follow the 46-47 and other cool neutral analogs here. For the time being, they have been the strongest long range tool, too.If we get the mid-January pattern being advertised on the models to show up this spring, it's going to be a long tornado season. HM, first off hope you had a merry christmas and happy new years. Do you think we finally get into a solid wintry pattern lasting longer than 2 weeks from late january into february down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 HM, first off hope you had a merry christmas and happy new years. Do you think we finally get into a solid wintry pattern lasting longer than 2 weeks from late january into february down here? I did, thanks. I hope you did as well. The issue we are going to continue to have in the Mid Atlantic is wavelength placement, timing correctly with our -AO periods. There is no question about it that mid to late January will see the next AO tanking and it could get quite low again. But what will our jet streams be doing at the time? A legitimate and possibly exceptional SSW is on the way which will dislodge the cold air again (right now and going forward the PV is very strong / bottled up). The logical prediction (and I believe the consensus) is to bring the cold down into the West mid-January and possibly have it come eastward by the end of the month. As we saw in December, the EPO/AO will spark a response in the NAO-west region once the stratospheric PV / "tornado" gets removed from this area. Hopefully when this happens, it won't be another bootleg situation. I don't think the next NAO response will be as bootleg as December and should bring a nice period of winter. It will be nothing historic and it will again favor New England / Midwest. If the MJO ever decides to come back to life and times well with the warming / -AO, then we can start talking big dogs, historic type stuff etc. but the Tropical Pacific is the real "Dr. No" this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I did, thanks. I hope you did as well. The issue we are going to continue to have in the Mid Atlantic is wavelength placement, timing correctly with our -AO periods. There is no question about it that mid to late January will see the next AO tanking and it could get quite low again. But what will our jet streams be doing at the time? A legitimate and possibly exceptional SSW is on the way which will dislodge the cold air again (right now and going forward the PV is very strong / bottled up). The logical prediction (and I believe the consensus) is to bring the cold down into the West mid-January and possibly have it come eastward by the end of the month.As we saw in December, the EPO/AO will spark a response in the NAO-west region once the stratospheric PV / "tornado" gets removed from this area. Hopefully when this happens, it won't be another bootleg situation. I don't think the next NAO response will be as bootleg as December and should bring a nice period of winter. It will be nothing historic and it will again favor New England / Midwest. If the MJO ever decides to come back to life and times well with the warming / -AO, then we can start talking big dogs, historic type stuff etc. but the Tropical Pacific is the real "Dr. No" this winter. ^^^ This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I did, thanks. I hope you did as well. The issue we are going to continue to have in the Mid Atlantic is wavelength placement, timing correctly with our -AO periods. There is no question about it that mid to late January will see the next AO tanking and it could get quite low again. But what will our jet streams be doing at the time? A legitimate and possibly exceptional SSW is on the way which will dislodge the cold air again (right now and going forward the PV is very strong / bottled up). The logical prediction (and I believe the consensus) is to bring the cold down into the West mid-January and possibly have it come eastward by the end of the month.As we saw in December, the EPO/AO will spark a response in the NAO-west region once the stratospheric PV / "tornado" gets removed from this area. Hopefully when this happens, it won't be another bootleg situation. I don't think the next NAO response will be as bootleg as December and should bring a nice period of winter. It will be nothing historic and it will again favor New England / Midwest. If the MJO ever decides to come back to life and times well with the warming / -AO, then we can start talking big dogs, historic type stuff etc. but the Tropical Pacific is the real "Dr. No" this winter. Thank you for the response. I think all we can hope for is just get the cold in first and see what happens from there. When you were talking back in early december of the pattern relax around christmas where the mjo would go in the warm phases was this stretch what you were referring to? The only thing we can hope for is, since the normals are at their lowest an above normal pattern can still yield some wintry precip like swfe that ultimately go to rain. Interior would obviously be favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 What's causing the lack of the MJO amplification? My best guess is the neutral Enso? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Thank you for the response. I think all we can hope for is just get the cold in first and see what happens from there. When you were talking back in early december of the pattern relax around christmas where the mjo would go in the warm phases was this stretch what you were referring to? The only thing we can hope for is, since the normals are at their lowest an above normal pattern can still yield some wintry precip like swfe that ultimately go to rain. Interior would obviously be favored. Well, my timing of things was definitely muddled but yeah this was essentially the post-AO blowtorch worry. I thought the PNA spike would happen sooner in December but left room for the possibility that the month could end with a La Nina-like pattern instead of a full blown torch. This was also the worry period as we wait for the next AO perturbation to downwell, the lower vortex would still be strong as it timed with a poor Pacific. I am proud of the wave forecasts for the "amplification in the cold" 1/4-1/8 but my interpretation of what that could mean looks to be dead wrong (winter storm potential). We just aren't going to get enough amplification/interaction when the PV is sub 480dm and the flow is compressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The lack of a good el-nino is bad news coming off a strong nina. Just can't shake the high heights in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 What's causing the lack of the MJO amplification? My best guess is the neutral Enso? Interestingly, it is the neutral ENSO state that is correlated with the most active MJO activity. But what does "neutral" actually mean? Now, of course, we can answer this question with the common answer but what is it about strong ENSO events and neutral events that favor/do not favor MJO activity? This winter, despite the mixed signals and changing SST, has had a pretty stable Walker and Hadley Cell circulation. Stable cells like these are usually present in strong ENSO conditions, which typically reduce MJO activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 0z euro ens are torched, 6z gfs/gEfS keeps the mean trough out west.. Pretty good agreement. So in the meantime, who wants to golf?!?!ImageUploadedByTapatalk1357132728.235669.jpg Thats a fairly progressive ridge though shown at Days 8-11 when you look closer, there is a deep low cutting into Canada with a trailing cold front that pushes the trough to the East Coast. I don't think anyone is getting under a sustained SE ridge for more than a couple of days as the low cuts to the west. It may very well not be THAT cold behind that storm for another 5-7 days or so but it probably will not be a blow torch by any means. Right now I'd feel safe saying nobody from Philly N and E is seeing even a top 20 warmest January but also that nobody is probably seeing above normal snowfall either except for maybe some lake snow ares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="SnowGoose69" data-cid="1977057" data-time="1357137569"><p> Thats a fairly progressive ridge though shown at Days 8-11 when you look closer, there is a deep low cutting into Canada with a trailing cold front that pushes the trough to the East Coast. I don't think anyone is getting under a sustained SE ridge for more than a couple of days as the low cuts to the west. It may very well not be THAT cold behind that storm for another 5-7 days or so but it probably will not be a blow torch by any means. Right now I'd feel safe saying nobody from Philly N and E is seeing even a top 20 warmest January but also that nobody is probably seeing above normal snowfall either except for maybe some lake snow ares.</p></blockquote> If you're gonna take my snow, don't take my Jan golf! Lol. All kidding aside, it might be transient. However, with the PV N/NW of us and the ridging offshore of the PAC coast, one would argue for higher heights along the apps. I did notice with the 6z gfs, that if the mean trough can be east of the Rockies, we could be in the transition zone if those higher heights, which would allow us to stay on a more neutral temp gradient. You can see that in the progged 850 temp anomaly maps. Lots will ride of the position of the PAC trough/ridging position as we head down the road. Call me snake bitten, but I think a top 20 jan record can't be written off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I did, thanks. I hope you did as well. The issue we are going to continue to have in the Mid Atlantic is wavelength placement, timing correctly with our -AO periods. There is no question about it that mid to late January will see the next AO tanking and it could get quite low again. But what will our jet streams be doing at the time? A legitimate and possibly exceptional SSW is on the way which will dislodge the cold air again (right now and going forward the PV is very strong / bottled up). The logical prediction (and I believe the consensus) is to bring the cold down into the West mid-January and possibly have it come eastward by the end of the month.As we saw in December, the EPO/AO will spark a response in the NAO-west region once the stratospheric PV / "tornado" gets removed from this area. Hopefully when this happens, it won't be another bootleg situation. I don't think the next NAO response will be as bootleg as December and should bring a nice period of winter. It will be nothing historic and it will again favor New England / Midwest. If the MJO ever decides to come back to life and times well with the warming / -AO, then we can start talking big dogs, historic type stuff etc. but the Tropical Pacific is the real "Dr. No" this winter. It is hard to get very confident that the next -AO period will deliver in our area given the tendencies of the Pacific this winter, even with a favorable EPO stretch...As you mention, I think a lot of hopes in shaking up the PNA sector for a meaningful amount of time would likely rely on the deceptive MJO... I do continue to take comfort in knowing most analogs did end up delivering their best stuff in their respective Febs, so definitely hanging onto some hope for now. It's great to see this SSW coming to life as hinted at for several weeks...Now watch the remnants of the PV building across Canada slingshot across Alaska for the end of Jan (which I believe is what the latest weeklies are doing) lol. ..and then Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 It is hard to get very confident that the next -AO period will deliver in our area given the tendencies of the Pacific this winter, even with a favorable EPO stretch...As you mention, I think a lot of hopes in shaking up the PNA sector for a meaningful amount of time would likely rely on the deceptive MJO... I do continue to take comfort in knowing most analogs did end up delivering their best stuff in their respective Febs, so definitely hanging onto some hope for now. It's great to see this SSW coming to life as hinted at for several weeks...Now watch the remnants of the PV building across Canada slingshot across Alaska for the end of Jan (which I believe is what the latest weeklies are doing) lol. ..and then Morch. Is their any way in determining where the cold will be displaced once the SSW is done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Is their any way in determining where the cold will be displaced once the SSW is done? MJO can help, but as we've discussed, the MJO has been pretty much garbage for most of the last 10 months or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The PNA can also be predicted by torques/AAM, stratospheric anomalies, retrograding Pacific Waves and other tropical waves, e.g. Kelvin, (obviously all of this is intertwined anyway). However, these forces do not tend to have any lasting effect when the background state is for RNA (like this year) and the MJO is not behind the forcing. Trying to time out PNA periods is in a background state like this winter is basically futile. However, closer range predictions are still doable when the things above come together nicely (like the recent pattern). We need to see a serious alteration in the Tropical Pacific to get a legitimate MJO; otherwise, it will be quick-hitting Kelvin Waves and stagnant La Nina-like forcing ruling the Tropics. If we trend toward La Nina cooling through the spring, +QBO and low sun, there will not be any real agents to wake up the MJO. Our only hope is a kick ass SSW that alters the entire scope of things, similar to what happened in the autumn / October with the -AAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I'm assuming roundy should update for the next 15 days fairly soon? The last image i have is pretty much at the top. Looks like phase 4-5. Should see some kind of decent mjo wave given the subsidence starting to form at the later periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Is their any way in determining where the cold will be displaced once the SSW is done? You basically want to find out where the sinks (troughs) and ridges will align and favor the remnant dust (cold) to settle into. The MJO/glaam indications can certainly help as ampsu and HM just described. There is a general broad-brushed "rule" in that out of the 3 main regions of eastern Asia, Europe and NA, 1 of the 3 usually misses out on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 12z NAM 84 hrs looked halfway decent, 1-2 6z GFS ind. ensembles show hope for Jan 6-7 event..."only in dreams" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I'm assuming roundy should update for the next 15 days fairly soon? The last image i have is pretty much at the top. Looks like phase 4-5. Should see some kind of decent mjo wave given the subsidence starting to form at the later periods. Update your bookmark. There's a new 2013 image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Update your bookmark. There's a new 2013 image. gracias...looks like phases 1-3 mid to late january. Though, the wave looks relatively weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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