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Jan. 5/6 Winter Weather Obs./Disc.


WilkesboroDude

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Late Saturday night into Sunday...a couple of northern stream

systems impact our area...but none phase with the southern stream

system in Florida. As a result...any precipitation generated by these

systems will be very light. While moisture will be limited...enough

lift generated by the right rear quadrant of an 140+kt upper level jet

and weak low level isentropic lift may squeeze out some light precipitation

overnight Saturday. The 09z sref/00z European model (ecmwf) and 12z NAM all generate

light precipitation during this time. Therefore...continued low probability of precipitation for

the forecast area Saturday night/early Sunday.

Forecast soundings and sref forecast suggest some pockets of light

freezing rain/drizzle and/or sleet will be possible especially in

the northwest NC mountains and far SW Virginia early Sunday...with

light rain or light snow elsewhere.


Late Saturday night into Sunday...a couple of northern stream

systems impact our area...but none phase with the southern stream

system in Florida. As a result...any precipitation generated by these

systems will be very light. While moisture will be limited...enough

lift generated by the right rear quadrant of an 140+kt upper level jet

and weak low level isentropic lift may squeeze out some light precipitation

overnight Saturday. The 09z sref/00z European model (ecmwf) and 12z NAM all generate

light precipitation during this time. Therefore...continued low probability of precipitation for

the forecast area Saturday night/early Sunday.

Forecast soundings and sref forecast suggest some pockets of light

freezing rain/drizzle and/or sleet will be possible especially in

the northwest NC mountains and far SW Virginia early Sunday...with

light rain or light snow elsewhere.

 

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This may be the closest we ever get to winter weather this year. If you have nothing productive to say, stop spamming the thread. Thanks.

 

NAM 4KM CAT Freezing Rain from via Raysweather:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A_oDxdaCYAAZ9Ve.png:large

I don't think you are going to snow when its 45 in your backyard.

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look you spam the forum with 100 threads in 30 days.  Just look at the comments you are getting.  Many are trying to give you a hint.  You noticed your Jan thread got deleted.  Everybody appreciates your excitement but man you go beyond extreme with some of the things you posts and threads you start.  We all want winter weather but starting a thread every time the wind blows is pretty ridiculous   Somebody made the comment last night that you will start a thread every time you get a thunderstorm in the spring.  You do what you want but you will see when some of the regulars on here start stepping on your fingers

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look you spam the forum with 100 threads in 30 days.  Just look at the comments you are getting.  Many are trying to give you a hint.  You noticed your Jan thread got deleted.  Everybody appreciates your excitement but man you go beyond extreme with some of the things you posts and threads you start.  We all want winter weather but starting a thread every time the wind blows is pretty ridiculous   Somebody made the comment last night that you will start a thread every time you get a thunderstorm in the spring.  You do what you want but you will see when some of the regulars on here start stepping on your fingers

 

+1

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NWS Greenville:An advisory for this may be warranted in later forecast packages.
VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.

NWS Blacksburg:

A new southern stream system...currently located off the Texas coast...will track NE across the southeast states and flirt

with our southern border late tonight/early Thursday. With a cold air mass in place and temperatures well below freezing

at that time...there is some concern for winter precipitation. However...all of the models keep the bulk of any deep moisture

well south of the County Warning Area. Have advertised some very low probability of precipitation into our northwest NC counties late tonight/early Thursday...which would include low probability of precipitation for -sn. It does not appear that the low-level moisture will be sufficient for anything more than a few flurries at this point. That system races off to the east-northeast by middle-day Thursday. 

A whole thread for a threat of freezing drizzle on some NPS mountain tops? lol

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I will stay up all night to report obs. I wouldn't be surprised to see some flakes/sleet/freezing drizzle in north-west NC.

I wouldn't be surprised either, NW nc often gets spotty flakes and freezing mist in January. I'm guessing this system will underperform whatever it's supposed to so.

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GFS spits out a little milkage...I will be okay with a little freezing drizzle or light freezing rain shower tho.

GFS_3_2013010218_F15_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

GFS 15 hour snowfall? Probably should be looking at the NAM, RAP, and RUC. Do they hold serve with the flakes? I haven't checked.

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