Parsley Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 1st the flu, now this BS.. what a day!! Atleast you got snow yesterday. Hope you feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 My coors light froze in the garage! this cold is the real deal, vodka only out there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I have to believe this would have been my first below zero night since 2004 if there was snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not for nothing... but the top three in historical verification are: #1 ECMWF #2 UKMET #3 JMA Not sure where it gets such a bad rep. Perhaps because it runs in 12 hour increments so some assume QPF totals are ridiculous not accounting for the extra 6 hours? I would love to see this JMA verification. I can't find a link for it right now, but the last I looked JMA was a distant 5th behind the Canadians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NCEP only keeps JMA stats through D3. JMA is clearly 4th in the hierarchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Here are the long term model stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Here are the long term model stats. Adam just say the jma is ranked number 1 so at least they have something to hold onto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I am surprised no one has latched on to the ukie probably because qpf isn't available after 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like this "storm" is done. Time to move onto the Groundhog Day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like this "storm" is done. Time to move onto the Groundhog Day storm. in terms of 6+ of snow yes i agree. Snow in general i disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like 1-3" with 4" lollis. This would be a joke in normal winters, but this year I'll take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hmm... why does Storm At Sea over in the NYC subforum keep saying the UKMET is crap? Here are the long term model stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 JMO, Ray, but the UKMet seems to do good in mundane situations, but has real problems dealing with explosive, convective type situations. At least that's been my experience with it over the last couple years (which is also the area where the GFS has made the biggest strides with their radiation package). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 JMO, Ray, but the UKMet seems to do good in mundane situations, but has real problems dealing with explosive, convective type situations. At least that's been my experience with it over the last couple years (which is also the area where the GFS has made the biggest strides with their radiation package). OK thnx. I must admit I don't follow the UKMET much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 can someone explain to me why you can snow with lake effect with like 15dbz soundings, yet on others storms 30 dbz is virga? Its snowing here on top of the mtn, dp 4 and the dbz's are like 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 can someone explain to me why you can snow with lake effect with like 15dbz soundings, yet on others storms 30 dbz is virga? Its snowing here on top of the mtn, dp 4 and the dbz's are like 5 What are the RHs in each of those situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 can someone explain to me why you can snow with lake effect with like 15dbz soundings, yet on others storms 30 dbz is virga? Its snowing here on top of the mtn, dp 4 and the dbz's are like 5 Lake Effect usually is a very low echo on radar, since the snow is generated by low level cumuliform clouds. Synoptic storm echoes start much higher from mid-level stratiform clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like this "storm" is done. Time to move onto the Groundhog Day storm. GFS has a pretty big storm forming near the gulf around the 1/31 - 2/02 time period. Still looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What are the RHs in each of those situations? Im not sure what the virga storms RH was, but right now mine is 50% and i have been getting on and off snow showers all day with a dp of 4. Just interested in how such low echoes from lake effect can make it snow but when you get under a 20-30 dbz from the virga storm it evaporated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Lake Effect usually is a very low echo on radar, since the snow is generated by low level cumuliform clouds. Synoptic storm echoes start much higher from mid-level stratiform clouds. Ahhh i see, i didn't know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 RAP is a good hit tonight for the DelMarVa....they may squeeze out a few inches of fluff in some locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS has a pretty big storm forming near the gulf around the 1/31 - 2/02 time period. Still looking good. That's the one that has my attention for a few days now....I may have to jinx it and start a thread soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That's the one that has my attention for a few days now....I may have to jinx it and start a thread soon Nothing personal but I hate threads devoted to dusting events that go on and on. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nothing personal but I hate threads devoted to dusting events that go on and on. JMO Nothing personal taken, but I hate starting threads a week in advance for naught, so with that said, I was merely joking anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I was looking at some of the long term models and early February continues to look pretty exciting. While researching some of the great east coast blizzards of February, I came across the Great Blizzard of 1899. The description from Wikipedia almost seemed hard to believe, at least as far as Florida is concerned. It states: "On February 12, snow started falling from Fort Myers and Tampa in Florida west towards New Orleans. Blizzard conditions were reported north of Tampa along the west coast of Florida due to ocean-effect snow. The storm crossed the Florida peninsula and intensified as it rapidly moved up the Eastern United States. High Point, North Carolina recorded 10-12" (25–30 cm) of snow, and temperatures as low as 10 °F (−12 °C) on the 11th, 5 °F (−15 °C) on the 13th, and 3 °F (−16 °C) on the 14th. It was said to be the coldest weather known to the oldest inhabitants. Washington, D.C. recorded its all-time record single snowfall of 20.5 inches (52 cm), though it was later broken. Cape May, New Jersey recorded 34 inches (86 cm), which is the highest single storm snowfall total ever in New Jersey, in what is normally the least-snowy part of the state." And I thought living through the Blizzard of 96 was exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I have been on iPhone past few days, but did anyone talk about this in our forum? Pretty cool! https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=367522830012473&set=a.121955251235900.20529.101608723270553&type=1&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%2Ftopic%2F37516-pittsburghwestern-pa-weather%2Fpage-13&_rdr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NCEP only keeps JMA stats through D3. JMA is clearly 4th in the hierarchy. I was looking for this updated info... thanks Adam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I was looking at some of the long term models and early February continues to look pretty exciting. While researching some of the great east coast blizzards of February, I came across the Great Blizzard of 1899. The description from Wikipedia almost seemed hard to believe, at least as far as Florida is concerned. It states: "On February 12, snow started falling from Fort Myers and Tampa in Florida west towards New Orleans. Blizzard conditions were reported north of Tampa along the west coast of Florida due to ocean-effect snow. The storm crossed the Florida peninsula and intensified as it rapidly moved up the Eastern United States. High Point, North Carolina recorded 10-12" (25–30 cm) of snow, and temperatures as low as 10 °F (−12 °C) on the 11th, 5 °F (−15 °C) on the 13th, and 3 °F (−16 °C) on the 14th. It was said to be the coldest weather known to the oldest inhabitants. Washington, D.C. recorded its all-time record single snowfall of 20.5 inches (52 cm), though it was later broken. Cape May, New Jersey recorded 34 inches (86 cm), which is the highest single storm snowfall total ever in New Jersey, in what is normally the least-snowy part of the state." And I thought living through the Blizzard of 96 was exciting. Does anyone know if that Cape May record still standing? Someone told me this about 20 years ago and I never followed up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Does anyone know if that Cape May record still standing? Someone told me this about 20 years ago and I never followed up on it. Yes it is. There was a report in 1996 of 35", but it was found to be bogus (the observer didn't consider the existing snow pack in his measurement). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.