cg2916 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Long-range forecasts say that early March could bring some of our best snows. I'm thankful, that 1" snow was pretty but didn't last long enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 So are we just looking at early March through mid March now maybe? Do you have any analogs that would match winter weather late March into April? The only warm Dec. analog with action into early April was the unforgettable 1987. However, that was a Nino and Jan. 1987 wasn't warm. So, I'd consider that a pretty weak analog. With just that one weak analog suggesting an exciting early April, the consensus of the analogs suggests that mid-March (up to 3/20) would likely be about it for the really interesting stuff...so, say ending no later than ~3/20 would be my educated guess for any sustained wintry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The only warm Dec. analog with action into early April was the unforgettable 1987. However, that was a Nino and Jan. 1987 wasn't warm. So, I'd consider that a pretty weak analog. With just that one weak analog suggesting an exciting early April, the consensus of the analogs suggests that mid-March (up to 3/20) would likely be about it for the really interesting stuff...so, say ending no later than ~3/20 would be my educated guess for any sustained wintry pattern. It's going to be fascinating to little Larry's coming along now to look back at these years, and know if it was a new pattern we're seeing, with longer summers and later winters, and with huge anomalous occurrences where old analogs don't work as often, or just another spike in an up and down world. You're younger than me, but I wonder if you will be able to see the long arc of change, if it's there, even when you are in your 80's? Some things I've read say you could go into a much colder spell lasting centuries within 20 years, but warmer is like turning up the heat under a frog, slowly, lol. ...and turning up the heat would make for some wild gyrations. ...maybe Sandys and 93 blizzards from time to time each decade? Wild to think about. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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