2013 Global Temperatures

[Snow_Miser]

This looks like a La Nina developing to me.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

This looks like a La Nina developing to me.

 

 

 

Maybe it will off-set the the seasonal torching that is getting underway in the Northern Hemisphere. 

 

You should read this:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#discussion

 

These are Bob Tisdale's words on May 7th: 

 

 

 

 

Espen: A cooling may happen for a short while (month or two), but the next Kelvin wave should be a downwelling (warm) one. At present, it doesn’t look like it will have a lot of oomph behind it. See pages 11 and 16 of NOAA’s weekly ENSO update:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Unless something happens, the upcoming ENSO season looks like it’ll be ENSO neutral.

Regards

 

 

 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

About 1/3rd of the way through May and the weatherbell maps are hovering between 0.00 and +0.01C for temp anomaly. This would be a GISS equivalent of roughly +0.50 to +0.60.

 

 

 

 

 

Still waiting on the actual GISS aomaly for April.

[Snow_Miser]

About 1/3rd of the way through May and the weatherbell maps are hovering between 0.00 and +0.01C for temp anomaly. This would be a GISS equivalent of roughly +0.50 to +0.60.

 

 

 

 

 

Still waiting on the actual GISS aomaly for April.

 

That's cool how even the CFS can pick up on the budding La Nina in the Tropical Pacific.

[Snow_Miser]

Maybe it will off-set the the seasonal torching that is getting underway in the Northern Hemisphere. 

 

You should read this:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#discussion

 

These are Bob Tisdale's words on May 7th: 

 

 

 

 

We'll see. Bob knows a lot about ENSO, but predicting ENSO is pretty tough. We'll see where the cool waters go over the next several weeks or so.

[ORH_wxman]

We'll see. Bob knows a lot about ENSO, but predicting ENSO is pretty tough. We'll see where the cool waters go over the next several weeks or so.

 

 

La Nina is unlikely...despite what sfc temps are doing in the region right now. The subsurface still wants to try for an El Nino, but it is clearly being bullied by the -PDO regime as the subsurface warmth is being pushed west and subsurface cold is expanding in the central regions. The warmth will try to push east again, but it looks like a stalemate right now. Many were proclaiming El Nino as very likely a month or two ago, but it just doesn't have that much support right now.

 

Neither does La Nina. Neutral is probably the "safe" call. A weak Nina or Nino can hapen but it would seem unlikely that either scenario of any strength beyond weak would happen at this point. It is still early though as the spring is the blackout time for predictions for ENSO.

[ORH_wxman]

GISS updated:

 

+0.51C for April which is actually the lowest value of the year thus far for GISS. It is 0.55C above what the weatherbell maps had. So our little experiment worked very well for predicting GISS as the data showed roughly 0.55C added to weatherbell maps gives us GISS....though some months were as low as the 0.40 higher range and others as high as 0.64 higher.

 

 

 

If the previous analysis didn't already do so...this should help us realize the weatherbell maps are quite useful once we apply the correct handicap.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Fairbanks, Alaska is currently 25.8F at 1pm local time, where the normal high for today should be 60F. That's amazing when you consider that the daylight length up there is now 18hr, 30m. I always thought that you needed long periods of darkness to produce such cold air, especially since it's nearly met summer.

 

Fairbanks Climate Data Center Webcam :

 

http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/

[tacoman25]

Fairbanks, Alaska is currently 25.8F at 1pm local time, where the normal high for today should be 60F. That's amazing when you consider that the daylight length up there is now 18hr, 30m. I always thought that you needed long periods of darkness to produce such cold air, especially since it's nearly met summer.

 

Fairbanks Climate Data Center Webcam :

 

http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/

 

They still had 18" of snow on the ground at the beginning of the month. They finally lost their snow cover yesterday, one of the latest dates on record. March was well below normal, April was record cold by 3 degrees, and May is running 10 degrees below normal so far. Undoubtedly one of the coldest meteorological springs on record there.

[ORH_wxman]

GISS updated:

 

+0.51C for April which is actually the lowest value of the year thus far for GISS. It is 0.55C above what the weatherbell maps had. So our little experiment worked very well for predicting GISS as the data showed roughly 0.55C added to weatherbell maps gives us GISS....though some months were as low as the 0.40 higher range and others as high as 0.64 higher.

 

 

 

If the previous analysis didn't already do so...this should help us realize the weatherbell maps are quite useful once we apply the correct handicap.

 

 

Looks like it was revised to +0.50C

[The_Global_Warmer]

Is there a place to get updates to the weatherbell map?

I'm going with .23c on UAH for May. .27 for RSS

.62 for GISS, .64 for NCDC

[ORH_wxman]

 

Is there a place to get updates to the weatherbell map?

I'm going with .23c on UAH for May. .27 for RSS

.62 for GISS, .64 for NCDC

 

It has cooled by about 0.01C since the 10th. We'll need to see it start warming again fairly soon to get a likely value over 0.60C for GISS.

You can get updates here:

http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png

[The_Global_Warmer]

Things have gone nina in the short term.

Miracles abound

 

[ORH_wxman]

We've seen a pretty sharp cooling since the 15th on the weatherbell maps. Now about a -0.02C anomaly 20 days into May. Gonna need a pretty big turnaround in the final 10 days of the month to get +0.60C for GISS.

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

NCDC is in pretty good agreement with the other datasets. 13th warmest April on record with a +0.52 Degree C anomaly for April.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global sst's dropped in lieu of so far short term enso cooling.

 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

 

We've seen a pretty sharp cooling since the 15th on the weatherbell maps. Now about a -0.02C anomaly 20 days into May. Gonna need a pretty big turnaround in the final 10 days of the month to get +0.60C for GISS.

 

 

 

2 days later and we've cooled further on the weatherbell maps. Actually getting pretty close to April temps now.

[Snow_Miser]

 

 

2 days later and we've cooled further on the weatherbell maps. Actually getting pretty close to April temps now.

 

A +0.6 anomaly for May it seems is becoming increasingly untenable.

[ORH_wxman]

Weatherbell has cooled slightly to -0.027C.

 

My guess roughly 1 week from the end of the month for GISS is +0.55C...I think it will warm slightly from what I see. But if it stays status quo it will be more like +0.51-0.52.

[tacoman25]

This may have already been answered in this thread and I missed it...but if you put GISS and Weatherbell on the same baseline, what is the general anomaly difference? It's nice that they seem to track pretty close in terms of a correlation relationship, but I'm curious about actual temperature differences in that relationship.

[ORH_wxman]

 

This may have already been answered in this thread and I missed it...but if you put GISS and Weatherbell on the same baseline, what is the general anomaly difference? It's nice that they seem to track pretty close in terms of a correlation relationship, but I'm curious about actual temperature differences in that relationship.

 

I think they are between 1 and 2 tenths off when using the same baseline.

[Snow_Miser]

This may have already been answered in this thread and I missed it...but if you put GISS and Weatherbell on the same baseline, what is the general anomaly difference? It's nice that they seem to track pretty close in terms of a correlation relationship, but I'm curious about actual temperature differences in that relationship.

 

It can vary. I've seen instances where they're relatively similar in anomalies, and other instances where one was warmer than the other.

[ORH_wxman]

 

It can vary. I've seen instances where they're relatively similar in anomalies, and other instances where one was warmer than the other.

 

They are rarely close to the same...they were close a couple times when the raw difference was in the high 3 tenths range which means that using the same baseline they were probably fairly close...but as I shopwed further up in this thread, the raw difference is very frequently between 0.50 and 0.60 which means that when accounting for the different baseline, they would rarely ever be close using the same baseline.

This is going back through 3+ years of data...perhaps further back it was different.

[Snow_Miser]

 

 

They are rarely close to the same...they were close a couple times when the raw difference was in the high 3 tenths range which means that using the same baseline they were probably fairly close...but as I shopwed further up in this thread, the raw difference is very frequently between 0.50 and 0.60 which means that when accounting for the different baseline, they would rarely ever be close using the same baseline.

This is going back through 3+ years of data...perhaps further back it was different.

 

The anomaly on the CFS for November 2010 was +0.25. The anomaly for GISS with the same baseline was +0.37. Not horrendously different, but not exactly the same either. I'll predict a +0.52 anomaly for this month for GISS with a 1951-1980 baseline based off of the CFS current temperature anomalies.

[Snow_Miser]

WeatherBell Maps continue to cool, and are now at -0.03 Degrees C for the month. Should see a very similar anomaly to April on most of the datasets.

EDIT: Now down to -0.034 Degrees C. Continues to cool fairly rapidly.

[SVT450R]

April was -.038c with 4 days left it could go either way.

[ORH_wxman]

It won't change that much from here on out...we've already logged over 80% of the month...we can probably narrow the GISS value down to something like +0.48-+0.56 unless this turns out to be one of those fluke months where GISS falls outside the typical range difference of the weatherbell maps.

[AvantHiatus]

It won't change that much from here on out...we've already logged over 80% of the month...we can probably narrow the GISS value down to something like +0.48-+0.56 unless this turns out to be one of those fluke months where GISS falls outside the typical range difference of the weatherbell maps.

The -10c Anomaly near Antartica looks pretty anomalous and could skew the mean, we don't have good observations down there. However, I have a feeling it is legitimate because of the record ice extent.

[The_Global_Warmer]

So far my predictions have been f****** dog *%#^.

[SVT450R]

So far my predictions have been f****** dog *%#^.

  Something we both agree on is your green bold in your sig.