2013 Global Temperatures

[tacoman25]

I was referring to the US.  Should have made that more clear in my post. 

 

Probably going to be the second or third coldest Jan-Apr for the U.S. in the past 30 years. Unlikely to be as cold as 1993, but only other real competition is 2008. This is where we're at now, with another big cold wave coming up for much of the country.

 

 

 

 

 

As a related aside, earlier this week the Denver airport recorded their coldest temperature this late in the season (6 degrees). Cheyenne, WY also had their coldest high on record this late (12).

[The_Global_Warmer]

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

 

 

Giss had a .59 anomaly for March of 2013.

 

That brings 2013 to .57 on the year.

 

2013: .57

2012: .416

2011: .496

 

 

 

 

[nzucker]

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

 

 

Giss had a .59 anomaly for March of 2013.

 

That brings 2013 to .57 on the year.

 

2013: .57

2012: .416

2011: .496

Warmest March since 2010 but only tied for 7th warmest since 2000.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Its not been crazy warm at all but consistently warm enough to keep 2013 certainly to be warmer than recent years.

[The_Global_Warmer]

NCDC has dropped for March 2013:  Long awaited and not cool.

2012  1    0.39142012  2    0.37802012  3    0.47192012  4    0.68802012  5    0.68072012  6    0.66062012  7    0.64642012  8    0.61472012  9    0.67692012 10    0.65532012 11    0.66772012 12    0.41902013  1    0.54712013  2    0.60762013  3    0.5843

[Snow_Miser]

 

NCDC has dropped for March 2013:  Long awaited and not cool.

2012  1    0.39142012  2    0.37802012  3    0.47192012  4    0.68802012  5    0.68072012  6    0.66062012  7    0.64642012  8    0.61472012  9    0.67692012 10    0.65532012 11    0.66772012 12    0.41902013  1    0.54712013  2    0.60762013  3    0.5843

 

It's in pretty good agreement with GISS/RSS/UAH with March 2013 being the 10th warmest March on record.

[nzucker]

It's in pretty good agreement with GISS/RSS/UAH with March 2013 being the 10th warmest March on record.

It's also cooler than 9 out of the last 14 months on NCDC starting in January 2012. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

That's not the point.

 

The next 6 months barring a powerful NINA will be more anomalously warm than the last 3 months.

 

There is NOTHING that doesn't support this claim.

 

 

[nzucker]

That's not the point.

 

The next 6 months barring a powerful NINA will be more anomalously warm than the last 3 months.

 

There is NOTHING that doesn't support this claim.

 

 

How do you know what global temperatures will be like in the next 6 months?

[Snow_Miser]

How do you know what global temperatures will be like in the next 6 months?

This.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's called properly putting the pieces together with common sense.

Just like my sea ice bet.

I will never post here again if 2013 is colder than 2011 or 2012 on Giss or Uah.

Ohc, enso, and global SSTs + recent history show me this is almost certain.

If you still believe its not. Take the under.

[ORH_wxman]

It's called properly putting the pieces together with common sense.

Just like my sea ice bet.

I will never post here again if 2013 is colder than 2011 or 2012 on Giss or Uah.

Ohc, enso, and global SSTs + recent history show me this is almost certain.

If you still believe its not. Take the under.

 

 

I don't think they made any claims about 2011 or 2012...those are La Nina years (or in the case of 2012, a transition year). This year is going to be warmer just based on ENSO alone. The claim was how certain you are that we are going to be anomalously warmer than the first 3 months of the year.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Actually they think the rest of the year is going to be a lot colder than it has been so far.  GISS had a .56 anomaly last year. 

 

With GISS and NCDC at .57/.58 so far.  We will need to have at least two months much colder than we have had so far if every other month is at the current levels.

 

 

We know probably 4 or 5 of the next 6 months will be warmer than the current average.  So it's going to be hard to get some .20 to .40 GISS or NCDC temps from April to October.  If a big NINA forms maybe Nov/Dec would qualify. 

 

 

2013 predictions:

 

GISS:

Don Sutherland: +0.60°C

Frivolousz21: +0.58°C

Jonger1150: +0.51°C

Mallow: +0.57°C

NZucker: +0.51°C

Skierinvermont: +0.61°C

Snowlover123: +0.50°C

 

Mean Guess: +0.55°C

 

NCDC:

Don Sutherland: +0.63°C

Frivolousz21: +0.61°C

Jonger1150: +0.57°C

Mallow: +0.61°C

NZucker: +0.54°C

Skierinvermont: +0.64°C

Snowlover123: +0.53°C

 

Mean Guess: +0.59°C

 

[AvantHiatus]

Strong rhetoric about short-term temperature trends is simply becoming background noise around these forums.

 

Like many, I cannot see how this year will end up colder than 2012 because North Hemisphere summers have tended to be warmer than the long-term annual average recently and we have already proven that ENSO and AGW is a stronger climate forcing than solar activity and most other short-term indications except major geological events and volcanic eruptions.

[skierinvermont]

I don't think they made any claims about 2011 or 2012...those are La Nina years (or in the case of 2012, a transition year). This year is going to be warmer just based on ENSO alone. The claim was how certain you are that we are going to be anomalously warmer than the first 3 months of the year.

The two claims are the same. The first 3 months of this year had nearly the same anomaly as annual 2012. It would not be possible to be warmer than last year and not also be warmer than the last three months.

[ORH_wxman]

The two claims are the same. The first 3 months of this year had nearly the same anomaly as annual 2012. It would not be possible to be warmer than last year and not also be warmer than the last three months.

 

 

He said the next 6 months, not the whole year.

[skierinvermont]

He said the next 6 months, not the whole year.

It would almost be impossible for the next 6 months to not be warmer than the last three and for 2013 to still finish warmer than 2012. You can't agree with one and not the other. I guess it's possible if the next six are exactly .56 or maybe few hundredths colder if the last three months are warm, but that's a very narrow range a made even less likely by the fact that the warmest anomalies are in summer and fall.

[ORH_wxman]

It would almost be impossible for the next 6 months to not be warmer than the last three and for 2013 to still finish warmer than 2012. You can't agree with one and not the other. I guess it's possible if the next six are exactly .56 or maybe few hundredths colder if the last three months are warm, but that's a very narrow range a made even less likely by the fact that the warmest anomalies are in summer and fall.

 

 

I generally agree and I would predict it to be warmer as well personally, but was just stating that nothing is set in stone like Friv was implying.

 

 

Why would the highest anomalies be in summer and fall? If we are coming out of a La Nina it makes sense but not coming off a borderline weak Nino. Granted we have seen SST anomalies rise since January as ENSO region rose, but there's plenty of uncertainty whether that continues and we could see some cooling over the next several months.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I generally agree and I would predict it to be warmer as well personally, but was just stating that nothing is set in stone like Friv was implying.

 

 

Why would the highest anomalies be in summer and fall? If we are coming out of a La Nina it makes sense but not coming off a borderline weak Nino. Granted we have seen SST anomalies rise since January as ENSO region rose, but there's plenty of uncertainty whether that continues and we could see some cooling over the next several months.

 

 

 

These are global sst's from 30-90N.  Since the Sea Ice/Land ice started to crumble the Summers/early Fall period.  The peaks are in Summer/Fall every year.  You can see it's pretty short period of warmth but it's a large jump even if it's only 7-15% of the ocean or so. 

 

What ties this to the sea ice/land ice even more is the weekly shows the peak before the monthly does.  So we will have to:

 

1. See this fail.  2009 only peaked slightly above 0.6 vs the normal 1.0 or so. 

 

2.  Cooling takes place somewhere else to counter this.

 

 

Weekly top, Monthly bottom. 

[SVT450R]

FWIW Weatherbell global temp anomaly maps are showing April to date as being the coldest month this year atm.

[Snow_Miser]

FWIW Weatherbell global temp anomaly maps are showing April to date as being the coldest month this year atm.

It's generally too cold overall, but it's not a bad proxy for the spatial distribution of the anomalies.

[skierinvermont]

I generally agree and I would predict it to be warmer as well personally, but was just stating that nothing is set in stone like Friv was implying.

 

 

Why would the highest anomalies be in summer and fall? If we are coming out of a La Nina it makes sense but not coming off a borderline weak Nino. Granted we have seen SST anomalies rise since January as ENSO region rose, but there's plenty of uncertainty whether that continues and we could see some cooling over the next several months.

 

I wouldn't say set in stone either. More like 70% odds the next 6 months are warmer than the last 3, roughly similar to the 80% odds I would give of 2013 being warmer than 2012. 

 

 

I was thinking that the summer and fall have the biggest anomalies based on the fact that the NH has been seeings its largest SST anomalies in summer and fall, probably related to the loss of ice. However, I just went and checked global LOTI GISS and over the last 13 years (2000-2012) the months with the biggest +anomalies are actually March, April, September, October, and November. The summer months of JJA actually have the lowest +anomalies. 

 

So for whatever reason, the bigger SSTAs in NH summer/fall are not translating into bigger global GISS anomalies and Friv's argument the past few months is not correct. I can only think of a few reasons this would be the case:

 

1) The anomalies Friv is posting are somehow incorrect or some alteration is made before it is "final" and incorporated into GISS

2) The bigger summer/fall +SSTAs in the NH are being counterbalanced by the SH

3) The bigger summer/fall +SSTAs in the NH are being counterbalanced by land temps

 

I'm guessing some combo of #2 and 3

[skierinvermont]

It's generally too cold overall, but it's not a bad proxy for the spatial distribution of the anomalies.

 

Has anybody figured out if it's a good proxy for the actual anomalies? Like can we just add .2C to it and it will generally predict the final NCDC/Had4/NCDC anomalies?

[ORH_wxman]

Has anybody figured out if it's a good proxy for the actual anomalies? Like can we just add .2C to it and it will generally predict the final NCDC/Had4/NCDC anomalies?

 

 

I'm doing this quickly so I don't have time to crunch all the data until a later time...but to at least go back about to 2011 (and if someone wants to go back further, it could help):

 

2011:

 

January: -0.13 (0.59 colder than GISS)

February: -0.15 (0.60 colder)

March: -0.06 (0.64 colder)

April: +0.02 (0.59 colder)

May: -0.10 (0.58 colder)

June: 0.00 (0.54 colder)

July: +0.09 (0.61 colder)

August: +0.05 (0.64 colder)

September: -0.03 (0.55 colder)

October: +0.02 (0.58 colder)

November: -0.09 (0.59 colder)

December: -0.05 (0.49 colder)

 

2012:

 

January: -0.16C (0.53 colder)

February: -0.14 (0.53 colder)

March: -0.11 (0.60 colder)

April: +0.10 (0.50 colder)

May: +0.15 (0.55 colder)

June: +0.09 (0.50 colder)

July: +0.05 (0.46 colder)

August: +0.10 (0.47 colder)

September: +0.08 (0.59 colder)

October: +0.22 (0.50 colder)

November: +0.19 (0.49 colder)

December: -0.08 (0.52 colder)

 

2013:

 

January: +0.08C (0.53 colder)

February: 0.00 (0.51 colder)

March: +0.02 (0.57 colder)

 

 

 

There seems to be some variance here but the difference is usually between 0.50 and 0.60...only 7 of the last 27 months fall outside that range and usually only by a few hundreths when they do. So I think the weatherbell maps can probably give us an idea to within about 0.05 of the GISS monthly anomaly if we take the weatherbell map and add 0.55 to it. If we did that, we would never be wrong by more than 0.09 on GISS at least going back to the beginning of 2011. If someone wants to go back further and see if it stays consistent, their page is here:

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/temperature.php

 

 

GISS data here:

 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

[ORH_wxman]

Someone may want to crunch those with Hadcrut4 data or NCDC also.

[skierinvermont]

Someone may want to crunch those with Hadcrut4 data or NCDC also.

 

 

Nice.. looks like .55 or just a hair less than that recently which would be suggesting .47ish for April on GISS... pretty cool relative to recent

 

It's probably easier to just convert to GISS first, and then to NCDC or Had4 by applying the usual GISS to NCDC or Had4 conversion, which is something like adding a couple hundredths to get NCDC and subtracting a tenth or so for Had4. 

[ORH_wxman]

Nice.. looks like .55 or just a hair less than that recently which would be suggesting .47ish for April on GISS... pretty cool relative to recent

 

It's probably easier to just convert to GISS first, and then to NCDC or Had4 by applying the usual GISS to NCDC or Had4 conversion, which is something like adding a couple hundredths to get NCDC and subtracting a tenth or so for Had4. 

 

I found this a bit strange in 2010 when I wanted to test it versus a strong El Nino: Early in the year the discrepency is really low and then it levels back into the very typical range until the outlier in December.

 

 

2010:

 

Jan: +0.30 (0.37 colder than GISS)

Feb: +0.35 (0.40 colder)

Mar: +0.39 (0.48 colder)

Apr: +0.31 (0.51 colder)

May: +0.16 (0.55 colder)

Jun: +0.08 (0.52 colder)

Jul: +0.01 (0.56 colder)

Aug: +0.04 (0.55 colder)

Sep: +0.04 (0.53 colder)

Oct: +0.12 (0.53 colder)

Nov: +0.25 (0.50 colder)

Dec: +0.03 (0.42 colder)

 

 

 

It might just a be a fluke in early 2010 and has nothing to do with the strong Nino. It still seems even with this data added in that 0.55 added to weatherbell anomalies to get GISS is the best course of action. Maybe a little bit less than 0.55 as 2011 looks like more of an outlier with the difference values near 0.60. I'm going to go back a few more years when I have the time. If the values remains pretty consistent, then the weatherbell maps have a realistic predictive value and should be useful in the future.

[skierinvermont]

I found this a bit strange in 2010 when I wanted to test it versus a strong El Nino: Early in the year the discrepency is really low and then it levels back into the very typical range until the outlier in December.

 

 

2010:

 

Jan: +0.30 (0.37 colder than GISS)

Feb: +0.35 (0.40 colder)

Mar: +0.39 (0.48 colder)

Apr: +0.31 (0.51 colder)

May: +0.16 (0.55 colder)

Jun: +0.08 (0.52 colder)

Jul: +0.01 (0.56 colder)

Aug: +0.04 (0.55 colder)

Sep: +0.04 (0.53 colder)

Oct: +0.12 (0.53 colder)

Nov: +0.25 (0.50 colder)

Dec: +0.03 (0.42 colder)

 

 

 

It might just a be a fluke in early 2010 and has nothing to do with the strong Nino. It still seems even with this data added in that 0.55 added to weatherbell anomalies to get GISS is the best course of action. Maybe a little bit less than 0.55 as 2011 looks like more of an outlier with the difference values near 0.60. I'm going to go back a few more years when I have the time. If the values remains pretty consistent, then the weatherbell maps have a realistic predictive value and should be useful in the future.

 

Strong Nino seems like a good guess. Could be related to the fact that GISS uses SSTs while (I think) CFSv2 is modelling actual air temperatures. The heat released from the tropics in a strong Nino could propagate first to global air temperatures and then into the global oceans, which would raise air temperature first and reduce the GISS-CFS discrepancy. 

[SVT450R]

Nice work Will 0.55 looks like a reasonable figure.

[Snow_Miser]

Will's comparison is valid, but it should be noted that the CFS has a different baseline temperature than GISS, thus with the baseline the CFS uses, the anomalies will naturally be cooler than GISS. The CFS uses a 1981-2010 baseline, whereas GISS generally uses a 1951-1980 baseline. Since the late-20th Century was generally warmer than the mid-20th Century, this would skew the anomalies.

 

For example, the GISS anomaly for March 2010 with a 1981-2010 baseline is 0.41 Degrees C. Still warmer than the CFS' anomaly with a small disagreement, but the CFS actually is not too dissimilar to the Global Temperature Anomaly from GISS when using the same baseline.