2013 Global Temperatures

[AvantHiatus]

There is some horrendous posting in this thread. I did not know the disinformation was so bad, more of the same with people looking at their backyard and applying it to the entire world. "It's cold here and must be cold there" mentality.

[ben4vols]

Yes it is, this March is going to be much warmer on UAH and warmer on all global temp sets than last years.

 

I was referring to the US.  Should have made that more clear in my post. 

[LakeEffectKing]

There is some horrendous posting in this thread. I did not know the disinformation was so bad, more of the same with people looking at their backyard and applying it to the entire world. "It's cold here and must be cold there" mentality.

Here are the various global anomolies all put together of the past 10 years (some are uniformly offset for easier comparison purposes).  The start date is after the large El Nino/La Nina couplet:

 

[AvantHiatus]

The warming trend is not very strong during the previous decade. Possibly masked by the -PDO pattern and changes in solar output. However, there are no signs that "we have turned the corner". 2013 following the trend of slowly responding ocean and land temperatures.

[LakeEffectKing]

The warming trend is not very strong during the previous decade. Possibly masked by the -PDO pattern and changes in solar output. However, there are no signs that "we have turned the corner". 2013 following the trend of slowly responding ocean and land temperatures.

Possibly...although many have noted here that the solar influences, during normal solar cycles, play an insignificant role in global temperatures...at least compared with the supposed forcing of CO2 at this point.  And even though there are hypotheses that purport to show other secondary negative forcings (increased low level cloud condensation nuclei via increased cosmic ray flux) it is still relatively early in the investigative stage.

 

I think the deep oceans will ultimately show itself as a much more important influence/buffer on global temps.....and the ultimate degree of impact that increased CO2 is having on overall climate.

[ben4vols]

There is some horrendous posting in this thread.

 

It isn't just limited to this thread.  In another thread you had this gem, "Nothing on the anomaly map really sticks out as being particularily cold and the arctic is on fire as usual.

[AvantHiatus]

Possibly...although many have noted here that the solar influences, during normal solar cycles, play an insignificant role in global temperatures...at least compared with the supposed forcing of CO2 at this point.  And even though there are hypotheses that purport to show other secondary negative forcings (increased low level cloud condensation nuclei via increased cosmic ray flux) it is still relatively early in the investigative stage.

 

I think the deep oceans will ultimately show itself as a much more important influence/buffer on global temps.....and the ultimate degree of impact that increased CO2 is having on overall climate.

On par with physical laws, which state that water is slower to capture thermal energy than land and also releases the heat more slowly. Suppose if the world oceans were 2 C warmer than currently, that would have a profound impact on the global climate. Many people view global warming in the scale of lifetimes but it could persist after AGW emissions completely stop. Based on the current climate models, greenhouse Earth period may persist for around 1 million years or longer in the worst-case scenario with CO2 reaching 1000 ppm.

 

The positive and negative feedback processes enhance each other. CO2 is just a catalyst for a warmer world as I'm sure most in this forum understands. The main thing to take away from the AGW issue is that simply shutting down coal plants to reduce CO2 is not enough and economically unacceptable right now. Adaptation as well as a lessening of fossil fuel dependence is required.

[Jonger]

Possibly...although many have noted here that the solar influences, during normal solar cycles, play an insignificant role in global temperatures...at least compared with the supposed forcing of CO2 at this point.  And even though there are hypotheses that purport to show other secondary negative forcings (increased low level cloud condensation nuclei via increased cosmic ray flux) it is still relatively early in the investigative stage.

 

I think the deep oceans will ultimately show itself as a much more important influence/buffer on global temps.....and the ultimate degree of impact that increased CO2 is having on overall climate.

On par with physical laws, which state that water is slower to capture thermal energy than land and also releases the heat more slowly. Suppose if the world oceans were 2 C warmer than currently, that would have a profound impact on the global climate. Many people view global warming in the scale of lifetimes but it could persist after AGW emissions completely stop. Based on the current climate models, greenhouse Earth period may persist for around 1 million years or longer in the worst-case scenario with CO2 reaching 1000 ppm.

 

The positive and negative feedback processes enhance each other. CO2 is just a catalyst for a warmer world as I'm sure most in this forum understands. The main thing to take away from the AGW issue is that simply shutting down coal plants to reduce CO2 is not enough and economically unacceptable right now. Adaptation as well as a lessening of fossil fuel dependence is required.

At the current rate, it will take 40-50 years to hit 500ppm.... Do you really think anything more than 550ppm is going to happen? Oil is already getting more scarce... No way would it last long enough to keep 2ppm CO2 annually possible. Natural gas and wind will power the world.... Gradually all wind and renewable.

[AvantHiatus]

At the current rate, it will take 40-50 years to hit 500ppm.... Do you really think anything more than 550ppm is going to happen? Oil is already getting more scarce... No way would it last long enough to keep 2ppm CO2 annually possible. Natural gas and wind will power the world.... Gradually all wind and renewable.

I don't think it is going to happen, that is just the worst case scenario and would occur long after we are dead, not that it matters. You outline the most likely scenario very well, 500 ppm can do some damage though, especially through sea level rise. There are unknown factors that could increase the CO2 even with limited oil supplies and the move towards alternative.

 

Deforestation reduces the natural CO2 depletion rate and feedback processes may release methane and CO2. It's challenging to forecast such factors in the long-term.

[The_Global_Warmer]

besides the persistent warm rings off the Eastern Coasts of the NH land masses is the Tropical Atlantic where a wide area of anomalies has formed. 

The weekly record for this data set was during the Super Nino of 1998 at .41C. 

 

These are the peaks of the most recent global sst anomaly records.  .41, .37

[AvantHiatus]

There are some ridiculous anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere, especially near Austrailia. Is that a record for the area?

[WxUSAF]

Not sure where else to put this...

 

Tweet from Ryan Maue today:

Climate scientists are almost universally terrible meteorologists

Also...

How many scientists have an AMS seal

 

To which I counter, "Meteorologists are almost universally terrible climate scientists, particularly you and JB".  

 

The reason being of course that they're NOT THE SAME SCIENCE.  A biologist is not a medical doctor, even though they have the same foundational science.  

[ORH_wxman]

March UAH: +0.18

[donsutherland1]

Not sure where else to put this...

 

Tweet from Ryan Maue today:

 

Also...

 

 

To which I counter, "Meteorologists are almost universally terrible climate scientists, particularly you and JB".  

 

The reason being of course that they're NOT THE SAME SCIENCE.  A biologist is not a medical doctor, even though they have the same foundational science.  

 

Climate science and meteorology are separate fields. There are probably few climate scientists who are meteorologists and likely few meteorologists who are climate scientists. The quote merely suggests that Maue has difficulty distinguishing between the two fields given his implicit assumption that climate scientists should be good meteorologists (but aren't).

[Kevin Druff]

Climate science and meteorology are separate fields. There are probably few climate scientists who are meteorologists and likely few meteorologists who are climate scientists. The quote merely suggests that Maue has difficulty distinguishing between the two fields given his implicit assumption that climate scientists should be good meteorologists (but aren't).

I confess to following Ryan because of the weather information he posts. Whatever else one can say about WeatherBell, their maps and other imagery are beautiful and informative.

However, his posts on global warming and climate frequently push me close to pushing the unfollow button.

[donsutherland1]

I confess to following Ryan because of the weather information he posts. Whatever else one can say about WeatherBell, their maps and other imagery are beautiful and informative.

However, his posts on global warming and climate frequently push me close to pushing the unfollow button.

It's disappointing that Dr. Maue veers into the issue of climate science when his expertise is in meteorology. He has clearly provided a lot of value-added with the development of his maps and probably deserves every dollar of what WeatherBell pays him. I just don't believe his delving into the issue of climate science, sometimes trying to discredit the scientists in that field, is a good use of his time and talent. I also don't believe it is a requirement of any existing or prospective energy clients whom WeatherBell might be serving or seeking to serve.

[AvantHiatus]

March UAH: +0.18

Reading about UAH and somewhat confused. Is +0.18 the temperature trend or the actual temperature departure?

 

2012 UAH Trends

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for 2012 are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2012 1 -0.134 -0.065 -0.203 -0.256

2012 2 -0.135 +0.018 -0.289 -0.320

2012 3 +0.051 +0.119 -0.017 -0.238

2012 4 +0.232 +0.351 +0.114 -0.242

2012 5 +0.179 +0.337 +0.021 -0.098

2012 6 +0.235 +0.370 +0.101 -0.019

2012 7 +0.130 +0.256 +0.003 +0.142

2012 8 +0.208 +0.214 +0.202 +0.062

2012 9 +0.339 +0.350 +0.327 +0.153

2012 10 +0.333 +0.306 +0.361 +0.109

2012 11 +0.282 +0.299 +0.265 +0.172

2012 12 +0.202 +0.142 +0.261 +0.134

ANN AVG +0.161 +0.225 +0.097 -0.033

[ORH_wxman]

 

Reading about UAH and somewhat confused. Is +0.18 the temperature trend or the actual temperature departure?

 

It is the temperature departure (or anomaly) from the 1981-2010 mean. So March 2013 was 0.18C above the 1981-2010 average for March.

[nzucker]

  

It is the temperature departure (or anomaly) from the 1981-2010 mean. So March 2013 was 0.18C above the 1981-2010 average for March.

Won't mention names but not as warm as some expected...

[LakeEffectKing]

Won't mention names but not as warm as some expected...

I think Hansen expected it.....but ironically because we are burning coal!! LOL.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Won't mention names but not as warm as some expected...

 

I expected it to be warmer

 

I expect NCDC and GISS to both be around .60.  And RSS to be near the .18 of UAH.

 

Apparently the Southern Hemisphere cooled off a lot at the mid levels.

[The_Global_Warmer]

this is why I thought it would be warmer than .18C.  I still expect it to be much warmer as we go along this Summer.

 

Here is Southern Hemisphere SSTs.

 

They have been up and down but still pretty warm.

 

 

 

It's also pretty warm globally.

 

 

 

[ineedsnow]

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20130402/

I think Hansen expected it.....but ironically because we are burning coal!! LOL.

[The_Global_Warmer]

RSS:

 

2012   1   -0.06122012   2   -0.12392012   3    0.07062012   4    0.33002012   5    0.23092012   6    0.33712012   7    0.25812012   8    0.25382012   9    0.38202012  10    0.29352012  11    0.19482012  12    0.10042013   1    0.44152013   2    0.19382013   3    0.2039

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

[Snow_Miser]

The warm water in the Tropical Pacific has essentially faded as cooler water has now replaced it.

 

[skierinvermont]

The warm water in the Tropical Pacific has essentially faded as cooler water has now replaced it.

 

 

 

Not sure what you are referring to, Nino 3, 4, and 3.4 all remain at or near their highest levels in several months. 

 

In the past 10 days region 3 cooled .1-.2C while region 4 warmed .1-.2C.

 

In the past month, region 3 cooled ~.3C while region 4 warmed ~.5C.

 

There has been little overall change in the past 10 days, and slight warming over the past month. We remain at or near the warmest level in 4 months, after the warming that took place earlier in 2013.

 

OHC anomalies are also at the highest levels since November.

[Snow_Miser]

Not sure what you are referring to, Nino 3, 4, and 3.4 all remain at or near their highest levels in several months.

In the past 10 days region 3 cooled .1-.2C while region 4 warmed .1-.2C.

In the past month, region 3 cooled ~.3C while region 4 warmed ~.5C.

There has been little overall change in the past 10 days, and slight warming over the past month. We remain at or near the warmest level in 4 months, after the warming that took place earlier in 2013.

OHC anomalies are also at the highest levels since November.

You can see what I'm talking about here when you compare it to this anomaly chart from late march of this year. While not as cold as earlier this year, it definitely has strayed away from positive territory over the last several updates.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Look's like ENSO 3 has cooled a bit.  ENSO 4 is warm.  ENSO 1-2 have also warmed up quickly.  Maybe not warming as fast as it was but not cooling. 

 

Either way global ssts are pretty warm regardless.  And we know the Northern Hemisphere will anomalously warm this Summer.

[skierinvermont]

You can see what I'm talking about here when you compare it to this anomaly chart from late march of this year. While not as cold as earlier this year, it definitely has strayed away from positive territory over the last several updates.

 

 

 

Over the last 20 days region has probably cooled more than region 4 has warmed, but not by a lot. I didn't look at 20 days, just at 10 days and 30 days.