The_Global_Warmer Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 ENSO regions look like they are turning warm quickly. We will see how it goes. The western Pacific and NW atlantic are both pretty warm already. The NW Atlantic will probably get a boost from very warm temps the next week and relatively Sunny skies. The Sun isn't that powerful yet though. Southern Hemisphere SST's have been running between .25 and .30 above normal the last 5 to 6 weeks. It will be interesting to see how the Southern hemisphere does. I have no doubt the Northern Hemisphere will continue to warm into/threw Summer. UAH is averaging .34 so far. If the year finished that high it would be third warmest. I expect March to be around that. We will see where it goes from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 NCDC came in at 0.61C+ for February.Three Jan-Feb. NCDC is averaging 0.575 VS 0.375 last year.March if 2012 was around 0.46 on NCDC last year. This year will likely be well above 0.60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John S2 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 NCDC came in at 0.61C+ for February. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/2 This link shows +0.57c. Are we talking about the same data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 <Originally posted by GaWx> Folks, Per the 0Z 3/16 GEFS, the AO is forecasted to dip to near -5 or lower 3/19-23 (yes, 5 days of sub ~-5) with a low ~-5.5 within 3/20-2!! This is even lower than prior runs! How unprecedented is this? Well, going back to 1950, when daily AO records start, there has not been a single day near or lower than -5 between 3/11 and 11/16, inclusive! Actually, there have been sub -5 days in March only in 1970 and that was seven days in early March (3/4-10). How crazy is this? The 0Z 3/16 and earlier Euro runs have had a 1064 mb sfc high and 566 dm 500 mb hts. centered over the N pole on 3/19! Considering how anomalous is this AO dip, the major S showing for parts of the SE US on 3/22 on the 0Z 3/16 Euro is not far-fetched at all. Thanks to Don S. for being all over this for several days. In the context of the atmospheric anomalies. The upcoming severe -AO would create above normal temperatures in the arctic, perhaps reaching record territory along the west coast of Greenland. Last year at this time the AO was weakly positive and the polar vortex was on the other side of the hemisphere and confined to Siberia and parts of Europe. Creating record warm temperatures during the winter and spring of 2012 in North America. A similar negative AO event occured in 2010 which eventually led to the warmest year on record, ranking close to 1998 and 2005 in terms of global temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 <Originally posted by GaWx> In the context of the atmospheric anomalies. The upcoming severe -AO would create above normal temperatures in the arctic, perhaps reaching record territory along the west coast of Greenland. Last year at this time the AO was weakly positive and the polar vortex was on the other side of the hemisphere and confined to Siberia and parts of Europe. Creating record warm temperatures during the winter and spring of 2012 in North America. A similar negative AO event occured in 2010 which eventually led to the warmest year on record, ranking close to 1998 and 2005 in terms of global temperatures. I think a -AO actually has a cooling effect on global temperatures. It warms the arctic but much of the mid-latitudes get very cold. The arctic isn't that big. The record warm temps in 2010 were due to a strong El Nino, not a -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/2 This link shows +0.57c. Are we talking about the same data? ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat The graphs on the page you linked don't show data at the poles maybe that is the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I think a -AO actually has a cooling effect on global temperatures. It warms the arctic but much of the mid-latitudes get very cold. The arctic isn't that big. The record warm temps in 2010 were due to a strong El Nino, not a -AO. This may be better suited to the arctic ice extent thread but would a -AO have a negative impact on ice growth and such? The major cold air source is being drained out of the arctic right before the warm season. I think this has major implications. The el nino in 2010 was not very strong, barely reaching moderate status at around 1.8c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 This may be better suited to the arctic ice extent thread but would a -AO have a negative impact on ice growth and such? The major cold air source is being drained out of the arctic right before the warm season. I think this has major implications. The el nino in 2010 was not very strong, barely reaching moderate status at around 1.8c. 1.8C is a strong El Nino. Also it was only 1.6C on the new improved ONI metric with sliding base periods. 2010 was pretty much exactly what you'd expect for a borderline Strong El Nino year. On the one hand the El Nino was not as strong as in 1998, but on the other it was 12 years later with more AGW. The two effects approximately canceled, and it ended up being about the same global temperature as 1998. There's really no need to introduce other additional variables to explain the warmth. In fact, compared to 2005 it was a bit on the cold side. 2005 was just as warm, but with a weaker El Nino event. Perhaps the AO was making it colder not warmer in 2010? My guess it was the solar minimum that prevented a full blown new global temperature record. I don't know of any verified correlation between the AO and global temps, so I would be hesitant to conclude it causes warmth or cold. If it does cause either, it is by a very small margin. Also in terms of arctic sea ice, a -AO helps reduce ice export out the fram straight and preserve thick multi-year ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John S2 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat The graphs on the page you linked don't show data at the poles maybe that is the difference. The link I provided appears to contain some errors. For Jan 2013 & Dec 2012 the global combined land & ocean anamoly are the same in both the report and the list, but for Feb 2013 they are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 February Global Land & Ocean Temperatures: GISS: +0.49°C That's 0.045°C above the 1981-2010 baseline and +0.029°C above the current 30-year moving average. The YTD anomaly is +0.545°C. At this time last year, the anomaly was +0.370°C. Overall, the anomaly to date ranks 11th highest and is the warmest since 2010 when the two-month anomaly was +0.700°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Impressive drop on AMSU recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Is this primarily from the cold airmass in North America? Nothing on the anomaly map really sticks out as being particularily cold and the arctic is on fire as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Is this primarily from the cold airmass in North America? Nothing on the anomaly map really sticks out as being particularily cold and the arctic is on fire as usual. Europe is well below normal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Is this primarily from the cold airmass in North America? Nothing on the anomaly map really sticks out as being particularily cold and the arctic is on fire as usual. I know the month started off alot warmer on anomaly maps and has steadly cooled. Was something like a .115 and is now .062 on weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 When will you guys learn there is almost no short term correlation between satellite temps and surface temps? You can't use one to verify the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 When will you guys learn there is almost no short term correlation between satellite temps and surface temps? You can't use one to verify the other. That's quite the drop off, would argue that it is a stratospheric cooling event but it's 14,000 ft in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelathos Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Aqua AMSU ch. 5 appears to have failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Aqua AMSU ch. 5 appears to have failed. Okay, AMSU ch 5 appears to have failed - the pseudo-skeptics will still prefer it to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Okay, AMSU ch 5 appears to have failed - the pseudo-skeptics will still prefer it to reality. Is that from an official source or is someone just speculating that it is a hardware failure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Is that from an official source or is someone just speculating that it is a hardware failure? It's from Dr Roy Spencer - the god-like (or clown-like) guru of the UAH temperature plot. Does he count as official? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Okay, AMSU ch 5 appears to have failed - the pseudo-skeptics will still prefer it to reality. Knowbody here would be using it knowing that it has failed. Is that from an official source or is someone just speculating that it is a hardware failure? http://www.drroyspencer.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It's from Dr Roy Spencer - the god-like (or clown-like) guru of the UAH temperature plot. Does he count as official? Yes, he is quite legit. I love his website. Just being a skeptic but it appears Aqua ch. 5 has indeed failed very strongly. Will need to use NOAA satellites for temperature data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Knowbody here would be using it knowing that it has failed. http://www.drroyspencer.com/ Yeah }'m pretty confident that it failed. There's no way that the lower troposphere cooled by -5C in a matter of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I was going to say it looks like a failure last night. Never seen a curve like that on AMSU before.. I've seen drops that big before but the curve looks different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 26, 2013 Author Share Posted March 26, 2013 Global ssts have sky-rocketed. I can say with 99 percent certainty 2013 will be top 5 warmest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 The oceans may be warming over the last month but those of us on land are freezing our backsides off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 The oceans may be warming over the last month but those of us on land are freezing our backsides off. I bet 75% of the populated world is below normal right now.... Europe, Asia, north America. I would assume that's greater than 50-60% of the populated world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I bet 75% of the populated world is below normal right now.... Europe, Asia, north America. I would assume that's greater than 50-60% of the populated world. A complete 180 from last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 26, 2013 Author Share Posted March 26, 2013 I bet 75% of the populated world is below normal right now.... Europe, Asia, north America. I would assume that's greater than 50-60% of the populated world. Not exactly even close to reality. A complete 180 from last March. Yes it is, this March is going to be much warmer on UAH and warmer on all global temp sets than last years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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