The_Global_Warmer Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 thanks for posting. Still a hell of a change overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 It probably doesn't matter but the GISS arctic is 64N. Never the less do you have access to the NCEP time series? Yeah, the time series has it as one of the coldest in recent years. The arctic has definitely warmed, but 1960-1980 looks like more of a cold anomaly than typical. The ice thickness could have been running substantially thicker than what was present beforehand. 1990's ice may have been more representative of the ice state than what we compare the start of the satellite era to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The March 2012 NA heatwave was the most anomalous in recorded human history anywhere in size and scope on Earth.That is craziest thing I have read on this board. If you were to say in the modern era, I would have laughed to myself and thought well we Americans are pretty US centric, but that statement is just plan crazy. What about the dust bowl, the little iceage the year without a summer, winter of deep snows across the northern 80 percent of Illinois. My main problem with AGW is people don't treat it like science, they treat it like politics and that's a dangerous deal. So next time I believe I would think long and hard about what you say next time before saying something undefendable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 That is craziest thing I have read on this board. If you were to say in the modern era, I would have laughed to myself and thought well we Americans are pretty US centric, but that statement is just plan crazy. What about the dust bowl, the little iceage the year without a summer, winter of deep snows across the northern 80 percent of Illinois. My main problem with AGW is people don't treat it like science, they treat it like politics and that's a dangerous deal. So next time I believe I would think long and hard about what you say next time before saying something undefendable. Since reliable human weather records in 1880 or so it's the most anomalous or in the top 3. You have no idea what anomolous means. You have no clue what you are talking about. lol and for you to say I don't treat it like science after you just said something so ignorant and stupid may be the most absurd thing I have ever read on here. Please come back and enlightme on how I am wrong about this. please I beg you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 That is craziest thing I have read on this board. If you were to say in the modern era, I would have laughed to myself and thought well we Americans are pretty US centric, but that statement is just plan crazy. What about the dust bowl, the little iceage the year without a summer, winter of deep snows across the northern 80 percent of Illinois. My main problem with AGW is people don't treat it like science, they treat it like politics and that's a dangerous deal. So next time I believe I would think long and hard about what you say next time before saying something undefendable. I'm pretty sure 80's in February and 90's in March at 40N is anomalous and unprecedented, feel free to refute this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm pretty sure 80's in February and 90's in March at 40N is anomalous and unprecedented, feel free to refute this. I am almost certain this is a poster on my local board who hates me who is a full on denier and can't troll me there because of long standing relationship with the pro met who runs the board. So he came here and tried to pick something out to make me look stupid. Instead he displayed an incredible lack of understading of what we are talking about why March of 2012 is likely the most anomalous event in modern recorded human history. This may help explain why he is a denier of basic science in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I am almost certain this is a poster on my local board who hates me who is a full on denier and can't troll me there because of long standing relationship with the pro met who runs the board. So he came here and tried to pick something out to make me look stupid. Instead he displayed an incredible lack of understading of what we are talking about why March of 2012 is likely the most anomalous event in modern recorded human history. This may help explain why he is a denier of basic science in the first place. In terms of what type of weather?....this is likely not close to the most anomalous event that has happened in recorded history on the globe. But that is not disagreeing it was extremely anomalous. Just off the top of my head, the Dust Bowl had 14 conescutive above average Julys from the long term mean from 1930-1943 in a cooler natural climate base state. December 1983 cold outbreak was off the sigma charts. Winter 1978-1979 in the CONUS is more than a full degree colder than 2nd place and more than a full degree more anomalous than the warmest winter on record. These are just temp examples that would probably be more anomalous Mar 2012. Mar 1910 was actually really close to Mar 2012. If we get into other types of events, we can find some pretty anomalous stuff. If you limited the paramters to one single month over the U.S., then I agree that it is definitely near the top...top 3 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I am just saying you can't possibly make a statement like that, just because you have a clear bias you want to make March 2012 the be all and end all. If you would have said highly anomalous I would have agreed, but you said most anomalous, there is a big difference there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Some quick notes on the "Summer in March" episode of 2012: 1. This was an extremely anomalous event. In terms of temperatures, it almost certainly was one of the seminal events since recordkeeping began. Large parts of the Plains States, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, into Canada saw widespread readings of 3 standard deviations or more above normal. Some areas had standardized anomalies in excess of 5 sigma. Below is a map that MN_Transplant posted for March 20: 2. Some cities beat record highs, not just for March, but also April. 3. International Falls offers one example of how extreme the event was: - The 79° high on March 18 was the warmest temperature recorded there by nearly 3 weeks (the previous earliest being April 6, 1991) - The 52° low on March 17 was the earliest 50° low temperature by more than 3 weeks (the previous earliest being April 9, 1925) - The 60° low on March 19 was the warmest minimum temperature by more than a month-and-a-half (the previous earliest being May 5, 1918). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I know how warm it was, it was amazingly warm I work in the ag field we began working more than two months earlier than this past year. You can't say it was the most anomolous weather event in "recorded history" that was my only beef. Both sides of this arguement are using really over the top rhetoric. My only point is that the world is a big place and to say that something that happen over part of a region is the most anomolous event ever and then try to tie it to climate change is redicules. The same people who scream when skeptic use weather to dissprove AGW are trying to use it here. If the following March had been warm and the following is warm and the pattern persists then we can talk, but the fact is last year our March was cool and wet not hot and dry like the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 It might have been the largest population affected by an anomaly, but I have seen cold outbreaks in Russia and heat outbreaks in Australia look just as anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 It might have been the largest population affected by an anomaly, but I have seen cold outbreaks in Russia and heat outbreaks in Australia look just as anomalous. Exactly, it's a world-wide phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Exactly, it's a world-wide phenomenon. Yup, been going on world-wide for eons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 It might have been the largest population affected by an anomaly, but I have seen cold outbreaks in Russia and heat outbreaks in Australia look just as anomalous. The only way to know for sure is to run a statistical test to see what the sigma values are for a particular event. This is not an easy task to do on all events...it is easier to do in the U.S. for temperatures where we have a robust fairly dense network of data that is long enough to create low error in statistical tests. Other events like precipitation or storm activity, or cloud cover would be more difficult to run sigma values on as the data itself is not as reliable or available. March 2012 is certainly way up there if you define time periods of 1 month or 3 weeks. Is it the most anomalous? For those defined time periods, it could be. Hard to say for sure. But expanded more, you can find other temperature anomalies rarer than March 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 I know how warm it was, it was amazingly warm I work in the ag field we began working more than two months earlier than this past year. You can't say it was the most anomolous weather event in "recorded history" that was my only beef. Both sides of this arguement are using really over the top rhetoric. My only point is that the world is a big place and to say that something that happen over part of a region is the most anomolous event ever and then try to tie it to climate change is redicules. The same people who scream when skeptic use weather to dissprove AGW are trying to use it here. If the following March had been warm and the following is warm and the pattern persists then we can talk, but the fact is last year our March was cool and wet not hot and dry like the last. This makes zero sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Some quick notes on the "Summer in March" episode of 2012: 1. This was an extremely anomalous event. In terms of temperatures, it almost certainly was one of the seminal events since recordkeeping began. Large parts of the Plains States, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, into Canada saw widespread readings of 3 standard deviations or more above normal. Some areas had standardized anomalies in excess of 5 sigma. Below is a map that MN_Transplant posted for March 20: 2. Some cities beat record highs, not just for March, but also April. 3. International Falls offers one example of how extreme the event was: - The 79° high on March 18 was the warmest temperature recorded there by nearly 3 weeks (the previous earliest being April 6, 1991) - The 52° low on March 17 was the earliest 50° low temperature by more than 3 weeks (the previous earliest being April 9, 1925) - The 60° low on March 19 was the warmest minimum temperature by more than a month-and-a-half (the previous earliest being May 5, 1918). Don gets it. Can you post that for the entire month? ORH you are right. Let's use the entire 31 day period it would be easier than probably breaking it into something smaller. I don't know how to standardized it. But in terms of absolutes form normal this probably ranks up with the late 1970s in cold. Except they were matched by each other while this is all alone. So those probably won't cut it. Unless the three year period of Jan 77-79 would all match this in terms of being anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 My point was there has not been a trend to warmer marchs, period. If you want to play the anomolous game what about July 2009. We had a sunny day that topped out in thelower 60s and lows in the lower 50s, that was the coldest July day on record in the coldest July on record. If I said never in recorded hisotry has there been such an anomolous event, I would hope you would laugh at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 My point was there has not been a trend to warmer marchs, period. If you want to play the anomolous game what about July 2009. We had a sunny day that topped out in thelower 60s and lows in the lower 50s, that was the coldest July day on record in the coldest July on record. If I said never in recorded hisotry has there been such an anomolous event, I would hope you would laugh at me. It's possible that there was some contribution, even minor from climate change/AGW. As a result it retains a substantial degree of anomalous as March 2012 but on the cold-side of the spectrum. Also July 2009 is not the coldest July on record over a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I am not using it as an example of anything, other thans saying weather events are incrediably difficult to attribute to climate. If we get increasingly warm Marches over the next 20 years ok, but until there is an up tick in temperatures in March overall it means nothing, other than an odd pattern set up in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 My point was there has not been a trend to warmer marchs, period. If you want to play the anomolous game what about July 2009. We had a sunny day that topped out in thelower 60s and lows in the lower 50s, that was the coldest July day on record in the coldest July on record. If I said never in recorded hisotry has there been such an anomolous event, I would hope you would laugh at me. Why are you making things up. You have no idea what you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Why are you making things up. You have no idea what you are talking about. March 2012... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Don gets it. Can you post that for the entire month? ORH you are right. Let's use the entire 31 day period it would be easier than probably breaking it into something smaller. I don't know how to standardized it. But in terms of absolutes form normal this probably ranks up with the late 1970s in cold. Except they were matched by each other while this is all alone. So those probably won't cut it. Unless the three year period of Jan 77-79 would all match this in terms of being anomalous. As you posted the maps, I'll just add the monthly data for International Falls (my example from earlier). The March 2012 mean temperature was 38.2°. That beat 2010 for the warmest March by almost 4° (34.4°). In terms of standardized anomalies, March 2012 was 2.871 sigma above the 1981-2010 normal. 2010 was 2.100 sigma above normal, meaning 2012 shattered the old mark by almost 0.8 sigma. Statistically, that's an incredible margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 The last thing anyone on this forum is. Is afraid of me. tacoman and jonger would probably die of laughter reading that. It's really insulting to everyone else to say they are not challeging my hyperbole lies becasue of the incredible fear I exude. Dude I can't help that the people in this industry that you idolize have lied to you or whatever you thought it was. If you have you tell yourself folks are afraid of me to ignore the data presented in front of you. By all means continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 You don't get it, anytime anyone speaks in absolutes or of extemes it should be a giant red flag. If your talking about, for example Joe Bastardi, I think he is an a** bag for the same reason I think you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 March 2012... wow. It probably has no relevenace but it beat March of 1909 by almost the exact amount of overall change that has taken place. I will post a comparison as soon as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 You don't get it, anytime anyone speaks in absolutes or of extemes it should be a giant red flag. If your talking about, for example Joe Bastardi, I think he is an a** bag for the same reason I think you are. Except I am not making things up and you are. So what is the problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I know how warm it was, it was amazingly warm I work in the ag field we began working more than two months earlier than this past year. You can't say it was the most anomolous weather event in "recorded history" that was my only beef. Both sides of this arguement are using really over the top rhetoric. My only point is that the world is a big place and to say that something that happen over part of a region is the most anomolous event ever and then try to tie it to climate change is redicules. The same people who scream when skeptic use weather to dissprove AGW are trying to use it here. If the following March had been warm and the following is warm and the pattern persists then we can talk, but the fact is last year our March was cool and wet not hot and dry like the last. Natural variability does not disappear in climate change. Natural variability and natural oceanic cycles continue, but within the context of increasing radiative forcing associated with the rising atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, along with changes in the natural forcings e.g., solar activity. Also, looking back at the message in question, The_Global_Warmer qualified his point with "likely." Let's just agree that this was an extreme event. Statistically, there's no argument whatsoever given 4-5+ sigma daily departures in parts of the affected area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 It might have been the largest population affected by an anomaly, but I have seen cold outbreaks in Russia and heat outbreaks in Australia look just as anomalous. The anomalies maybe greater but the appropriate metrix would be the sigma value. Weather in central Russia is much more variable so seeing a 6F departure for the month is not very unusual. Anomalies of 5 sigma in March 2012... that is huge. I don't know if anything that extreme has ever been seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Okay, no one asked what I believe, so to clear that up. There is no doubt that there has been quatifable warming we all agree on that. I don't discount the possibility that man may very well be causing warming, I even believe that we should take steps to reduce our carbon emissions. What I don't believe is that we have the knowledge of an awesomely complex system to make meaningful long term predictions. I just wish both sides would say we know a lot more now than 10 years ago, and inconviably more than 50 years ago, but our understanding of the interconnection of the entire global climate is still developing. That leads me to a question how much do you think we know? If we use the anology of a glass to describe our knowledge I would say less than a quarter full. In my opinion that is far to little to say we can make long term and reasonable assumptions. For instance, I know many of you my not like the example, the 1970s cooling. Some people thought this was the beginning of a long term down turn, as it turns out it was a blip, unlike any we had seen since the 1800s. To me it is foolish to make such grand statements as fact. We seem to lose track of massive and sometimes rapid climate shifts in the past, both warmer and colder. Should we not expect climate to change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloridaJohn Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 We seem to lose track of massive and sometimes rapid climate shifts in the past, both warmer and colder. Could you point to a time in the past when the climate has shifted as rapidly as it is now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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