Jonger Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It was a really bad homer-like statement by Weatherguy, all records, whether hot or cold are the result of being on the left or right side of the jet stream. The earth could warm 5 degrees and you aren't going to see many record highs in a trough like pattern, lets hope we never see that though. Let's come back later on and discuss the upcoming 80's in February or March (Yes even in Howell, MI). I understand you probably do not truely believe that Global Warming ended overnight because of record lows. The whole post about the South American heatwave was just to give people a sense of reality and balance. The landmass temperature variability year to year is good at masking global warming, 90% of GHG forcing is applied to the ocean. I'm adjusted to the fact over the last several years that many areas can go from 2-3 standard deviations above normal to the 1-2 standard deviations below normal almost overnight. AGW can infact make extreme temperatures more common, but the all-time lows still remain untouched and yet the all-time highs have been set within the last decade save for a few areas. Many or most of the all time highs in the US were set in the 1930's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Many or most of the all time highs in the US were set in the 1930's. This is what happened outside the US in recent years. Record Highs Record Lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 down to -17 coldest ever for any date is -22 and we still have 4 hours of cooling left nws going for a low of -25 pretty sure we make it That's because the PV is being pushed south via the anomalous blocking over the pacific. On the flip side, you still might not reach your record even with the PV right over you, pretty sad when it's the coldest air in North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 down to -17 coldest ever for any date is -22 and we still have 4 hours of cooling left nws going for a low of -25 pretty sure we make it In spite of this. Uah came in at .29C for December and 4th warmest on record for the year. The global average anomalies by year (2013 was the 4th warmest since satellite monitoring started in 1979): 1979 -0.170 1980 -0.008 1981 -0.045 1982 -0.250 1983 -0.061 1984 -0.353 1985 -0.309 1986 -0.244 1987 +0.013 1988 +0.012 1989 -0.207 1990 -0.022 1991 +0.020 1992 -0.289 1993 -0.245 1994 -0.108 1995 +0.013 1996 -0.076 1997 -0.049 1998 +0.419 1999 -0.056 2000 -0.061 2001 +0.107 2002 +0.218 2003 +0.187 2004 +0.108 2005 +0.260 2006 +0.186 2007 +0.204 2008 -0.009 2009 +0.209 2010 +0.398 2011 +0.130 2012 +0.170 2013 +0.236 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 down to -17 coldest ever for any date is -22 and we still have 4 hours of cooling left nws going for a low of -25 pretty sure we make it You did not make it. More importantly, every station around you was in the -8 to -15 range for lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Records (esp for one location or one country) are a useless metric to discuss in a thread like this. They are irrelevant in the grand scheme of global temps as a whole. Setting global records is slightly more relevant. Though they tell us very little about the rate of global warming or lack there of. Someone should probably start a 2014 thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 In spite of this. Uah came in at .29C for December and 4th warmest on record for the year. The global average anomalies by year (2013 was the 4th warmest since satellite monitoring started in 1979): 1979 -0.170 1980 -0.008 1981 -0.045 1982 -0.250 1983 -0.061 1984 -0.353 1985 -0.309 1986 -0.244 1987 +0.013 1988 +0.012 1989 -0.207 1990 -0.022 1991 +0.020 1992 -0.289 1993 -0.245 1994 -0.108 1995 +0.013 1996 -0.076 1997 -0.049 1998 +0.419 1999 -0.056 2000 -0.061 2001 +0.107 2002 +0.218 2003 +0.187 2004 +0.108 2005 +0.260 2006 +0.186 2007 +0.204 2008 -0.009 2009 +0.209 2010 +0.398 2011 +0.130 2012 +0.170 2013 +0.236 And RSS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Let's come back later on and discuss the upcoming 80's in February or March (Yes even in Howell, MI). I understand you probably do not truely believe that Global Warming ended overnight because of record lows. The whole post about the South American heatwave was just to give people a sense of reality and balance. The landmass temperature variability year to year is good at masking global warming, 90% of GHG forcing is applied to the ocean. I'm adjusted to the fact over the last several years that many areas can go from 2-3 standard deviations above normal to the 1-2 standard deviations below normal almost overnight. AGW can infact make extreme temperatures more common, but the all-time lows still remain untouched and yet the all-time highs have been set within the last decade save for a few areas. It's obvious that the severe cold affecting the U.S. (and about to get colder) is really bothering you. Talking now about 80s in February in MI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's obvious that the severe cold affecting the U.S. (and about to get colder) is really bothering you. Talking now about 80s in February in MI? It's bothering me because the media is spouting out all this garbage about how its so cold. The common person will soak that up and forget about the urgency of climate change. We have 20 years or less to affect rapid changes in society and how we treat the environment before future generations are locked into a poor standard of living partly due to peak oil and also because of climate change. BTW, the 80s in MI happened back in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's bothering me because the media is spouting out all this garbage about how its so cold. The common person will soak that up and forget about the urgency of climate change. If it's cold in the US, then it's cold in the US. No one (besides fringe skeptics) is claiming the globe is cooling. Are you saying the press should be censored from reporting the truth? And for the sake of the scientific method, technically the dynamics of the planetary energy budget and the radiative transfer interplay that occurs within its processes are theoretical. So the idea that we loused up somewhere is not physically impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's bothering me because the media is spouting out all this garbage about how its so cold. The common person will soak that up and forget about the urgency of climate change. We have 20 years or less to affect rapid changes in society and how we treat the environment before future generations are locked into a poor standard of living partly due to peak oil and also because of climate change. BTW, the 80s in MI happened back in 2012. It shouldn't be bothering you. The media hypes everything up now, so cold, snow, heat, rain...all are hyped up. It knows no boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's bothering me because the media is spouting out all this garbage about how its so cold. The common person will soak that up and forget about the urgency of climate change. We have 20 years or less to affect rapid changes in society and how we treat the environment before future generations are locked into a poor standard of living partly due to peak oil and also because of climate change. BTW, the 80s in MI happened back in 2012. Not in February...no need for hyperbole or false information on a subject that gets enough of it already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 No we did not make it if winds stayed calm we would have You did not make it. More importantly, every station around you was in the -8 to -15 range for lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's bothering me because the media is spouting out all this garbage about how its so cold. The common person will soak that up and forget about the urgency of climate change. We have 20 years or less to affect rapid changes in society and how we treat the environment before future generations are locked into a poor standard of living partly due to peak oil and also because of climate change. BTW, the 80s in MI happened back in 2012. Detroit's greatest early-season warmth occurred in March 2012, not February. This was the noted "summer in March" episode. 3/20 82° (tied previous monthly mark set on 3/28/1945) 3/21 84° 3/22 86° The following years saw at least one 80° reading in March in Detroit: 1910 1912 1938 1943 1945 1986 1998 2000 2007 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's bothering me because the media is spouting out all this garbage about how its so cold. The common person will soak that up and forget about the urgency of climate change. We have 20 years or less to affect rapid changes in society and how we treat the environment before future generations are locked into a poor standard of living partly due to peak oil and also because of climate change. BTW, the 80s in MI happened back in 2012. March 2012, the continental US was the warmest spot in an otherwise average month globally. Jan 25th in Lansing Michigan has a record high of 65 set in 1950, that's about the same range of average to record as March 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 March 2012, the continental US was the warmest spot in an otherwise average month globally. Jan 25th in Lansing Michigan has a record high of 65 set in 1950, that's about the same range of average to record as March 21st. The March 2012 NA heatwave was the most anomalous in recorded human history anywhere in size and scope on Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 It shouldn't be bothering you. The media hypes everything up now, so cold, snow, heat, rain...all are hyped up. It knows no boundaries. This i just seen a headline on yahoo today that read ''Global Warming is Freezing you'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 The March 2012 NA heatwave was the most anomalous in recorded human history anywhere in size and scope on Earth. I don't know, the Australian heatwaves in 2013 might of been more severe. Perhaps someone could post data comparing the two events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Anyone have the December 2013 numbers for RSS? Can't seem to find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 This i just seen a headline on yahoo today that read ''Global Warming is Freezing you'' And I just saw one posted about the evil Polar Vortex! SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Anyone have the December 2013 numbers for RSS? Can't seem to find them. +0.158 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Anyone have the December 2013 numbers for RSS? Can't seem to find them. http://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 I don't know, the Australian heatwaves in 2013 might of been more severe. Perhaps someone could post data comparing the two events. Severe for sure. Not sure about anomolous vs the normal. Although they would need to be standardized. RSS doesn't have complete pole data. The obsession with it is sad but expected considering the two full global sets UAH and GISS are both 4th or 5th warmest on record this year and RSS will probably be 6th-9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Severe for sure. Not sure about anomolous vs the normal. Although they would need to be standardized. RSS doesn't have complete pole data. The obsession with it is sad but expected considering the two full global sets UAH and GISS are both 4th or 5th warmest on record this year and RSS will probably be 6th-9th. Being 4th or 5th etc warmest on record while the globe is at it's warmest time ever doesn't really say much. For example if we saw cooling this year and global temps actually dropped it would still probably be considered within the top 10 warmest years globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 Being 4th or 5th etc warmest on record while the globe is at it's warmest time ever doesn't really say much. For example if we saw cooling this year and global temps actually dropped it would still probably be considered within the top 10 warmest years globally. In the context of the ONI index I'd say it means quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Severe for sure. Not sure about anomolous vs the normal. Although they would need to be standardized. RSS doesn't have complete pole data. The obsession with it is sad but expected considering the two full global sets UAH and GISS are both 4th or 5th warmest on record this year and RSS will probably be 6th-9th. So if someone even mentions RSS or HadCRU4, it's "obsession"? It's called looking at all the sources. You were among those bashing UAH when it was running cooler a few years back. Thanks to those that supplied the RSS info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 In the context of the ONI index I'd say it means quite a bit. Eh, ONI is just one contributor to global temps. Looking at the big picture of what was going on ENSO-wise in 2013, coming in 4th-7th warmest (depending on source) isn't a huge surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 It's looking like 2013 will be one of the coldest in the Arctic since 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 It's looking like 2013 will be one of the coldest in the Arctic since 2005. It probably doesn't matter but the GISS arctic is 64N. Never the less do you have access to the NCEP time series? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 It probably doesn't matter but the GISS arctic is 64N. Never the less do you have access to the NCEP time series? Yeah, the time series has it as one of the coldest in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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