2013 Global Temperatures

[The_Global_Warmer]

Taking a running 60 month average UAH has been at record levels for several months. Surface temperature series are not at records by this metric but GISS is getting close.

 

 

The thing to note is.  This is being done through a lack of cool time + the almost expect warm period from August-November or so.  The coldest months are probably warming way faster than the warmest months.

 

Like if you did top 25% coldest and 25% warmest and 50% in the middle.

 

I would guess cold has the largest warmng trend, the middle next and the warmest the least or no warming trend at all.

[Jonger]

Just curious how we are suppose to know this for sure.  a 100 years ago we didnt even know if there was a hurricane or not in the Oceans half the time! I dont see how it is possible to go this far back with temps of the ocean. Not trying to troll the thread but would love to know?

 

The thing to note is.  This is being done through a lack of cool time + the almost expect warm period from August-November or so.  The coldest months are probably warming way faster than the warmest months.

 

Like if you did top 25% coldest and 25% warmest and 50% in the middle.

 

I would guess cold has the largest warmng trend, the middle next and the warmest the least or no warming trend at all.

 

I would think the transition months are warming quicker, mainly because of the arctic lagging the warmth into Sept-Oct-Nov.

[chubbs]

The thing to note is.  This is being done through a lack of cool time + the almost expect warm period from August-November or so.  The coldest months are probably warming way faster than the warmest months.

 

Like if you did top 25% coldest and 25% warmest and 50% in the middle.

 

I would guess cold has the largest warmng trend, the middle next and the warmest the least or no warming trend at all.

 probably haven't been many really very warm months due to lack of El Nino. Past 60 months has been primarily La Nina with only one El Nino period..

[ORH_wxman]

I would think the transition months are warming quicker, mainly because of the arctic lagging the warmth into Sept-Oct-Nov.

 

Here are the anomalies post-2000 listed by month in order of largest to smallest on GISS:

 

1. November......+0.655

2. March............+0.643

3. October.........+0.628

4. September.....+0.611

5. April...............+0.582

6. January.........+0.577

7. May...............+0.571

8. August...........+0.568

9. February.......+0.555

10. July.............+0.550

11. June...........+0.548

12. December...+0.541

[Jonger]

I would think the transition months are warming quicker, mainly because of the arctic lagging the warmth into Sept-Oct-Nov.

 

Here are the anomalies post-2000 listed by month in order of largest to smallest on GISS:

 

1. November......+0.655

2. March............+0.643

3. October.........+0.628

4. September.....+0.611

5. April...............+0.582

6. January.........+0.577

7. May...............+0.571

8. August...........+0.568

9. February.......+0.555

10. July.............+0.550

11. June...........+0.548

12. December...+0.541

March being second might just be natural variability. I would think that month would be down the list more.

[ORH_wxman]

It terms of seasons...the northern hemisphere summer has been the coolest recently on a global scale, with winter barely behind. Autumn has been by far the warmest followed by spring.

[The_Global_Warmer]

November, March, October, September, and then April are the top 5.

 

 

That is quite telling of the influence the Northern Hemisphere seasonal changes(solar in Spring, solar lag(heating of oceans) in Sept or so.

 

With obvious arctic implicaitons.

 

 

 

even with a AO+ since late October.  The arctic has remained quite warm.  Not as off the charts blow torching as recent years have been.  But considering the PV has been sitting over the Kara and basin for a while.  Where is the cold? 

 

 

 

The 12z GFS inspite of a mostly positive to very positive AO over this period.  Shows a modeled anomaly of 2.7C+ over the arctic region. 

 

 

 

 

We can see GISS for November of 2013.  Shows the major warmth over each pole and Siberia. 

 

 

 

 

So far in December.  Africa and North America have been very cool to cold for NA/GIS.  Again the oceans are decently warm.  But overall the arctic/Siberia/NPAC is driving the warmth again.

 

While Antarctica inspite of a AAO+ has been a bit warm as well.  Except over the West Antarctic ice shelf where sea ice is probably way above normal in that sea we see to the right of the cold anomalies around 60W.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

 probably haven't been many really very warm months due to lack of El Nino. Past 60 months has been primarily La Nina with only one El Nino period..

 

 

The SON period on GISS(Sept-Nov) has steadily warmed since 2001 and is WAY warmer than pre 2001.  The last two years are tied for 2nd with a .70C SON while 2005 was a .74C SON.

 

 

On the flipside GISS only dropped below .50C once in 2013 inspite of the negative ONI.  Which was .48 in APR.

 

Seven motnhs in 2013 have been above .60C so far.  December will make it eight months.

 

 

Only two above .63C which are .77C and .73C for Sept and Nov.

 

December is currently a .152C on CFS with 13 days to go. 

 

AMSU Channel 6 temps have warmed a lot since late Nov/early Dec.  Now they are around 2002-2004 levels and higher than 2005-2012 for this date.

 

With CFS showing a .70C for GISS so far.

 

We will likely see 2013 finish at .62C on GISS or tied with 1998 and 2002 for 4th warmest year on record.

 

 

That to me is crazy.  UAH is gonna finish 5th warmest barring a .30C+ or so Dec then it will be 4th.  NCDC looks to be 4th-5th as well.

 

So the three biggest global temp data sets stand behind 2013 being a negative nuetral ENSO year and still top 5 warmest on record.

 

 

1998 was the Super NINO.  2002 was a regular NINO.

 

Of course the warming has slowed a lot since the 80s and 90s.  But we are still warming steadily. 

 

It would be awesome if someone could tak the OHC data and timeseries it with GISS to find the max lag time.  It appears by the naked eye that global temps lag OHC by 8-16 months. 

 

The Super NINO spike was in 1996.  The next spike was in late 2003 into 2004 which was noticed in 2005.

 

We are probably runing off the 2nd spike in the 2011-12 period.

 

We should see the recent spike show up in 2014 sometime but it's hard to say since we can't pinpoint the physical mechanics that make this correlation work as well as our naked eyes show us.

 

 

 

[Jonger]

I'm not so sure that +AO always correlates to a cold arctic, those low pressures pull in warmth from the surrounding continent and keep the arctic from being able to radiate out heat.

 

I always thought +AO meant that the arctic would be cold and found out that wasn't the case.

 

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/weather_climate_patterns.html

[The_Global_Warmer]

Inspired by Jongers very important contribution above.  Here is some data pertaining to the AO.  I have no idea how it will turn out.  So here we go:

 

 

Looks like a cold Siberia helps cause the -AO years to be colder than the AO+ years.  AO+ is colder over the core but it's a much smaller area.  But the AO+ in Fall does come with a colder arctic.

 

The last year to qualify if 1994 though.

 

 

In winter as well it goes back to the Siberian land mass in a -AO being able to be very very cold vs the warm AO+.

 

 

AO of 0.5+ or greater for SON.  years betweeen 1948-2013 that qualify.

 

 

AO of -0.5 or less for SON.  years betweeen 1948-2013 that qualify.

 

 

 

 

AO of 0.5+ or greater for DJF.  Years between 1948-2013 that qualify.

 

 

 

AO of -0.5 or less for DJF.  years betweeen 1948-2013 that qualify.

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS has been around normal and slightly below for 2-3 days.

 

this has helped bring the Dec averaged down to .120C. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The arctic is forecasted to be as close to normal over the next week as I can remember seeing it anytime recently. 

 

Antarctica has been running about average.  The AAO is expected to drop into the -1 to -2 negative range over the next week which should cause Antarctica to warm up some. 

 

Global SSTA weeklies have come in again roughly at .20C+ for the third week in a row. 

 

A cylone has been sitting East of Southern Africa for a few days now and has caused up welling or brought cooler water from the South Northward and has created a little cold pool there.  This feature moves out today and is replaced with a HP that is expected to grow and strenghen through the week.  Which will probably help warm the Southern Indian ocean a lot.

 

High pressure West of Africa in the South Atlantic which has caused some warming there as well is expected to expand in side to the West and North.  So that area should also see more warming. 

 

A large high pressure is also expected to grow in size and strengh West of South America over the Southern Pacific.  This must be some sort of normal three cell set up. 

 

The central North Atlantic should also warm up as a large HP slides East over the next week in that region.  The waters off the West coast of NA should also warm up some.  The NW Pacific should cool off. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS has settled in around .10C for the month of December.  Currently at .104C.  The dailies are also back at that level. 

 

This seals up 2013 around 4th or 5th warmest on record on the major data sets.

 

[AvantHiatus]

Substantial heatwave is now occuring in South America, perhaps historic in a few areas.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-25564633

[AvantHiatus]

 

[ORH_wxman]

That map is obviously wrong.

[AvantHiatus]

That map is obviously wrong.

Yeah, i'm unsure if I should use it anymore. Will wait for the next 6-hour update to see if it corrects itself.

[Jonger]

 

It's been fixed. I saw that yesterday and knew you and a few others would get excited.

[AvantHiatus]

It's been fixed. I saw that yesterday and knew you and a few others would get excited.

Lol

[ineedsnow]

and here we might break our all-time record low friday night of -22 if we can get winds to go calm 

Substantial heatwave is now occuring in South America, perhaps historic in a few areas.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-25564633

[AvantHiatus]

and here we might break our all-time record low friday night of -22 if we can get winds to go calm 

That's because the PV is being pushed south via the anomalous blocking over the pacific. On the flip side, you still might not reach your record even with the PV right over you, pretty sad when it's the coldest air in North America.

[Jonger]

That's because the PV is being pushed south via the anomalous blocking over the pacific. On the flip side, you still might not reach your record even with the PV right over you, pretty sad when it's the coldest air in North America.

 

All record highs and lows are because of jet stream steering... ALL.

 

Go back in the record books, if you think any of those record lows in the 1970's or 1880's weren't caused by the PV, you are delusional. 

[AvantHiatus]

All record highs and lows are because of jet stream steering... ALL.

 

Go back in the record books, if you think any of those record lows in the 1970's or 1880's weren't caused by the PV, you are delusional. 

The jetstream flow is not as zonal as it used to be, research into this phenomenon is relatively recent but whereas back in the 70's you did not need huge dips to get into the -20's. Go research it for yourself and stop defending people who are not well-versed in this field and also those who do not look beyond their IMBY.

 

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2013/07/16/dr-jennifer-francis-top-climatologists-explain-how-global-warming-wrecks-the-jet-stream-and-amps-up-hydrological-cycle-to-cause-dangerous-weather/

[Jonger]

The jetstream flow is not as zonal as it used to be, research into this phenomenon is relatively recent but whereas back in the 70's you did not need huge dips to get into the -20's. Go research it for yourself and stop defending people with agendas.

 

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2013/07/16/dr-jennifer-francis-top-climatologists-explain-how-global-warming-wrecks-the-jet-stream-and-amps-up-hydrological-cycle-to-cause-dangerous-weather/

 

Who am I defending?

[skierinvermont]

Climate change is making record lows less frequent. The ratio of record highs to lows set annually is something like 4:1 when it used to be 1:1. 

 

Climate change is probably making the jet stream less zonal but that doesn't mean you can say climate change is causing record lows. To say that would mean that overall climate change is making record lows more common when in fact the opposite is true. 

[tacoman25]

Climate change is making record lows less frequent. The ratio of record highs to lows set annually is something like 4:1 when it used to be 1:1. 

 

Climate change is probably making the jet stream less zonal but that doesn't mean you can say climate change is causing record lows. To say that would mean that overall climate change is making record lows more common when in fact the opposite is true. 

 

Records are not adjusted for increased UHI, however. It has been shown that cold records still fall much more easily in rural locations as opposed to urban. Therefore, I don't think it is accurate to say that entire 4:1 ratio is due to climate change.

[tacoman25]

The jetstream flow is not as zonal as it used to be, research into this phenomenon is relatively recent but whereas back in the 70's you did not need huge dips to get into the -20's. Go research it for yourself and stop defending people who are not well-versed in this field and also those who do not look beyond their IMBY.

 

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2013/07/16/dr-jennifer-francis-top-climatologists-explain-how-global-warming-wrecks-the-jet-stream-and-amps-up-hydrological-cycle-to-cause-dangerous-weather/

 

Uh, look at 500mb maps from most of the historic cold spells of the past. Almost all required big dips in the jet stream, and there is nothing unprecedented about the current blocking pattern. It's just a very cold air mass/PV.

[Jonger]

Records are not adjusted for increased UHI, however. It has been shown that cold records still fall much more easily in rural locations as opposed to urban. Therefore, I don't think it is accurate to say that entire 4:1 ratio is due to climate change.

 

Most records longer than 50 years are in areas that have experienced major growth. Most records are usually broken by 1 or 2 degrees on each end of the spectrum, human structures usually skew temps upward a degree or two, rarely do man made structures cause cooling.

 

Even so, without UHI... record highs would probably be closer to 2:1. Whether its co2, the sun or both... Its fractionally warmer today than 30 years ago.

[Jonger]

Uh, look at 500mb maps from most of the historic cold spells of the past. Almost all required big dips in the jet stream, and there is nothing unprecedented about the current blocking pattern. It's just a very cold air mass/PV.

 

It was a really bad homer-like statement by Weatherguy, all records, whether hot or cold are the result of being on the left or right side of the jet stream. The earth could warm 5 degrees and you aren't going to see many record highs in a trough like pattern, lets hope we never see that though.

[AvantHiatus]

It was a really bad homer-like statement by Weatherguy, all records, whether hot or cold are the result of being on the left or right side of the jet stream. The earth could warm 5 degrees and you aren't going to see many record highs in a trough like pattern, lets hope we never see that though.

Let's come back later on and discuss the upcoming 80's in February or March (Yes even in Howell, MI). I understand you probably do not truely believe that Global Warming ended overnight because of record lows. The whole post about the South American heatwave was just to give people a sense of reality and balance.

 

The landmass temperature variability year to year is good at masking global warming, 90% of GHG forcing is applied to the ocean. I'm adjusted to the fact over the last several years that many areas can go from 2-3 standard deviations above normal to the 1-2 standard deviations below normal almost overnight.

 

AGW can infact make extreme temperatures more common, but the all-time lows still remain untouched and yet the all-time highs have been set within the last decade save for a few areas.