2013 Global Temperatures

[skierinvermont]

I just noticed that there were daily updates for awhile, mostly about how CFS was running remarkably warm, and then after that last post about the drop - nothing for days.

 

It appears my assumption was right - the daily CFS stopped showing great spikes of warmth. And coincidentally or not, the daily updates ceased as well.

 

I doubt it was coincidental. The spike was extremely warm and interesting. The plunge was also very fast. Since then temperatures have remained constant. I find the CFS spiking to .54 much more interesting than holding steady at 0-.1.

[skierinvermont]

Monthly CFS down to .189

 

YTD is only 0.049

 

What a scorcher.

 

The CFS is not an accurate measure of whether it is a 'scorcher' or not because it is not a measure of long-term temperature. It shows no long-term trend, because it is not designed to measure one. 

 

.049 would be .6C on GISS for the year (actual looks to be about .62) which is fairly warm. .189 for the month so far suggests GISS will come in at .74C .. one of the warmest months ever. 

[AvantHiatus]

I will go out on a limb and predict that we are back on an upward trend, perhaps breaking the previous warmest year by 2016 give or take a year. Reasoning is based on the additional forcing of small amounts of methane in the arctic and an ice free state in September by 2015.

 

We can already see how severely the pacific side is torching, will be interesting to watch how the pattern progresses over North America and for how long temperatures remain cold. The hiatus period poll revealed that many were not expecting substantial warming until the 2020's or even 2030's.

[tacoman25]

I doubt it was coincidental. The spike was extremely warm and interesting. The plunge was also very fast. Since then temperatures have remained constant. I find the CFS spiking to .54 much more interesting than holding steady at 0-.1.

 

The last time he reported on temps they were still above .20 on the dailies. So he didn't really report how low they plunged.

 

That's ok, not a big deal, but it does go to show how just reading through these threads would give you a misleading idea of everything going on, since some "stories" are breathlessly reported on every day, and others are ignored.

[tacoman25]

I will go out on a limb and predict that we are back on an upward trend, perhaps breaking the previous warmest year by 2016 give or take a year. Reasoning is based on the additional forcing of small amounts of methane in the arctic and an ice free state in September by 2015.

 

We can already see how severely the pacific side is torching, will be interesting to watch how the pattern progresses over North America and for how long temperatures remain cold. The hiatus period poll revealed that many were not expecting substantial warming until the 2020's or even 2030's.

 

The main reason the Pacific is torching is the same reason the U.S. has been so cold the past couple months...persistent blocking there. If the U.S. switches to a warmer pattern, you can almost guarantee the north Pacific will cool because that will almost certainly mean lower heights there.

 

 

[skierinvermont]

I will go out on a limb and predict that we are back on an upward trend, perhaps breaking the previous warmest year by 2016 give or take a year. Reasoning is based on the additional forcing of small amounts of methane in the arctic and an ice free state in September by 2015.

 

We can already see how severely the pacific side is torching, will be interesting to watch how the pattern progresses over North America and for how long temperatures remain cold. The hiatus period poll revealed that many were not expecting substantial warming until the 2020's or even 2030's.

 

I think the next El Nino close to +1.5 ONI will probably establish a clear global temperature record. This year I think will be the first in a while to show an ENSO adjusted bump in temps. The ENSO state using a 3-month lag was nearly identical to last year but this year will be .04C warmer on GISS. ENSO adjusted temperatures have been nearly identical since 2005 and show no trend since 2005 (until this year). 

 

That could be an indication that temperatures are once again on the rise. This is probably because the declining solar forcing since 2002 is finally over and back on the rise. 

 

However, I'd give less than a 10% chance of an ice-free state by September 2015. The 4 year volume trend has been flat. I also don't think recent methane increases have been a significant global forcing. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I just noticed that there were daily updates for awhile, mostly about how CFS was running remarkably warm, and then after that last post about the drop - nothing for days.

 

It appears my assumption was right - the daily CFS stopped showing great spikes of warmth. And coincidentally or not, the daily updates ceased as well.

 

 

You are a terrible human being.  One of the worst I've ever spoken too.  Such a hypocrite. 

[nflwxman]

I think the next El Nino close to +1.5 ONI will probably establish a clear global temperature record. This year I think will be the first in a while to show an ENSO adjusted bump in temps. The ENSO state using a 3-month lag was nearly identical to last year but this year will be .04C warmer on GISS. ENSO adjusted temperatures have been nearly identical since 2005 and show no trend since 2005 (until this year). 

 

That could be an indication that temperatures are once again on the rise. This is probably because the declining solar forcing since 2002 is finally over and back on the rise. 

 

However, I'd give less than a 10% chance of an ice-free state by September 2015. The 4 year volume trend has been flat. I also don't think recent methane increases have been a significant global forcing. 

Hey Skier, is your ENSO adjusted temperature using just GISS or was it a mix of several data soures?

[tacoman25]

You are a terrible human being.  One of the worst I've ever spoken too.  Such a hypocrite. 

 

 

I made an observation. Based on facts. Not sure how that makes me a terrible human being or a hypocrite.

[skierinvermont]

Hey Skier, is your ENSO adjusted temperature using just GISS or was it a mix of several data soures?

 

It's GISS Had4 and NCDC. I think NCDC is jumping ~.02 from last year or so (same ENSO state). I haven't looked at Had4 at all.

[donsutherland1]

GISS Data:

 

November:

2013: +0.77°C (Warmest November on record)

Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.391°C

Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.343°C

 

Year-to-Date:

2013: +0.601°C (6th warmest)

Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.203°C

Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.166°C

[The_Global_Warmer]

Holy Crap I can't believe it was .77C.

[The_Global_Warmer]

RSS was .1312C for November.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Through the first half of December.  CFS is at .156C or a .71C on GISS. 

 

the dailies are just under .10C today.

 

 

So we are back to near record warmth after November was warmest on record.

[The_Global_Warmer]

ENSO is getting very warm subsurface.

 

Global ssta weeklies are now at .20C+  The coolest since  late June.  As expected the warmth has gone down quite a bit.  But there are no signs of anything near a global cool period.  With OHC at record levels.  Now ENSO OHC mainting and near 12 month peaks. 

 

Warmest arctic forecast I have seen the Fall. 

ENSO may not go NINO.  But it's building heat again.  Now with 3-5C+ reaching the 120W region. 

 

My December call for CFS is .12C equivalent to a .67C on GISS.  I am thinking .15C for UAH.

[AvantHiatus]

The warm pool of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific is quite persistent since July. However I doubt it has unprecedented implications down the road and is probably a result of the historic blocking pattern in that region recently.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

the arctic really is gonna get warm this week.

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS is back up to .18C as of Dec15th00z on the dailies.  .18C = .73C on giss monthly.  Currently monthly is .153C = .70C.  So it was fun while it lasted.  That wicked cool period I failed to talk about because of my insane bias.  Now that we are back to normal...I mean near record warmth globally. 

 

So lets talk about something that matters relative to this topic.  OHC updated finally.  It is lower than the last six months but at seasonal record highs. 

 

 

Here is the updated numerical data so far on the year.  I would expect us to stay warm. UAH, NCDC, and GISS will all finish 4th-6th this year on their all time records. 

 

 

 

# HC [10^22 J] heat content 0-700m

2003 9.951750
2004 10.24050
2005 8.411750
2006 10.43025
2007 9.478500
2008 10.05225
2009 10.12600
2010 10.36725
2011 10.86900
2012 10.94075
2013 12.78697

 

 

 

 

Look our for ENSO.  Here is the last  5 days animated.

 

[bluewave]

The power of the -EPO ridge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Do you have GISS November by Hemisphere?

[donsutherland1]

Do you have GISS November by Hemisphere?

Northern Hemisphere: +1.00°C

Southern Hemisphere: +0.55°C

[nzucker]

Interesting GISS once again an outlier with extreme warmth compared to the satellites, which dropped a lot for November from around .3C anomaly in October. 

[tacoman25]

Interesting GISS once again an outlier with extreme warmth compared to the satellites, which dropped a lot for November from around .3C anomaly in October. 

 

I've noticed GISS seems to be much more closely correlated with the AO during the cold season. -AO months from Nov-Mar tend to be cool (for GISS), while +AO months are almost always quite warm.

 

Nov 2013, of course, had major +AO.

[donsutherland1]

Interesting GISS once again an outlier with extreme warmth compared to the satellites, which dropped a lot for November from around .3C anomaly in October. 

NCDC isn't in yet. Once the NCDC data is released late tomorrow morning, we'll know whether GISS or the satellites were outliers so to speak.

 

However, FWIW, if one subtracts the October 2013 anomalies from the November 2013 ones on the NCEP Reanalysis maps, November comes out warmer than October was on a global basis. In any case, we should know soon enough with tomorrow's data release.

[nflwxman]

Interesting GISS once again an outlier with extreme warmth compared to the satellites, which dropped a lot for November from around .3C anomaly in October. 

The extreme warmth on GISS may lag to the lower troposphere.  We've seen this many times in previous years...GISS/NCDC warms up first followed by a 1-2 month lag from the sat data sets.  It's hard to determine an outlier when not all the data sources are measuring the same thing.

 

Good example: Jan 2013.

[tacoman25]

NCDC isn't in yet. Once the NCDC data is released late tomorrow morning, we'll know whether GISS or the satellites were outliers so to speak.

 

However, FWIW, if one subtracts the October 2013 anomalies from the November 2013 ones on the NCEP Reanalysis maps, November comes out warmer than October was on a global basis. In any case, we should know soon enough with tomorrow's data release.

 

Eh, I don't think it's quite that simple. I believe NCDC uses close to the same data as GISS and is therefore usually pretty close to them. I would say we will have to wait for HadCRU4 as well.

[tacoman25]

The extreme warmth on GISS may lag to the lower troposphere.  We've seen this many times in previous years...GISS/NCDC warms up first followed by a 1-2 month lag from the sat data sets.  It's hard to determine an outlier when not all the data sources are measuring the same thing.

 

Good example: Jan 2013.

 

All this is true, but I think you also have to remember that over the past 10 years, GISS has been the warmest global temp source. They represent one end of the spectrum.

[nflwxman]

All this is true, but I think you also have to remember that over the past 10 years, GISS has been the warmest global temp source. They represent one end of the spectrum.

 

UAH has a higher trend than GISS during the last 10 years

[AvantHiatus]

All this is true, but I think you also have to remember that over the past 10 years, GISS has been the warmest global temp source. They represent one end of the spectrum.

No matter how you slice it, global temperatures are simply warmer than most would like or expect (based on their regional experience) and will continue warming if the climate forecasts are correct. More importantly, a mere 0.2 C or less separates the top 5 warmest years.

[tacoman25]

 

UAH has a higher trend than GISS during the last 10 years

 

Not talking about trend. GISS has the highest absolute anomaly (common baseline) over the past 10 years.