2013 Global Temperatures

[ORH_wxman]

I probably wouldnt favor anything more than a weak Nino at this point given the -PDO feedback...neutral is prob most likely. Euro SIPS has warm-neutral by August. ECMWF has plain neutral.

[skierinvermont]

I probably wouldnt favor anything more than a weak Nino at this point given the -PDO feedback...neutral is prob most likely. Euro SIPS has warm-neutral by August. ECMWF has plain neutral.

 

I'll go minimum Nino by summer... at least one month of +.5 by August. Where it goes from there.. no idea.

[skierinvermont]

It's not sarcasm pointed at you, it's about the ENSO models which are pretty unreliable in long-range forecasting. The real-world conditions just don't support the development of an El Niño, and I find that a lot of these models exaggerate a short-term tendency into a long-range prog. Thus, if we're seeing slight warming, they'll show a monster Niño arriving...this happened in 09-10 when we had CFS showing 97-98 redux and it happened in 10-11 when the plumes had a -3.0C Niña, clearly impossible. There's also so much spread in the modeling, from negative-neutral to strong Niño, that the only thing that's probably certain is that we won't have a strong La Niña.

 

I like looking at the PDO/SOI/OHC etc more at this point than models, and only one really points to a warm ENSO regime. I think it's best to wait a little longer before models are reliable. I didn't mean to come off as sarcastic but rather as comparing what computers show to what the actual ocean temperatures are telling us about the power of the cold PDO regime (look at how the Niño got killed this year). Sorry if it was seen the wrong way but you're no stranger to being a bit sarcastic in your posts. 

 

 

IIRC that was the old CFS and it was not the PDF corrected (no idea what that means but it didn't show the extreme outcomes as the uncorrected). I've noticed the opposite tendency.. the models are slow to catch onto the development of a Nino or Nina.

[donsutherland1]

The delayed January 2013 GISS anomaly is now in: +0.61°C (vs. +0.37°C in January 2012).

[donsutherland1]

What did GISS show?

+0.61°C.

[skierinvermont]

It's not sarcasm pointed at you, it's about the ENSO models which are pretty unreliable in long-range forecasting. The real-world conditions just don't support the development of an El Niño, and I find that a lot of these models exaggerate a short-term tendency into a long-range prog. Thus, if we're seeing slight warming, they'll show a monster Niño arriving...this happened in 09-10 when we had CFS showing 97-98 redux and it happened in 10-11 when the plumes had a -3.0C Niña, clearly impossible. There's also so much spread in the modeling, from negative-neutral to strong Niño, that the only thing that's probably certain is that we won't have a strong La Niña.

 

I like looking at the PDO/SOI/OHC etc more at this point than models, and only one really points to a warm ENSO regime. I think it's best to wait a little longer before models are reliable. I didn't mean to come off as sarcastic but rather as comparing what computers show to what the actual ocean temperatures are telling us about the power of the cold PDO regime (look at how the Niño got killed this year). Sorry if it was seen the wrong way but you're no stranger to being a bit sarcastic in your posts. 

 

Feb/March 2009 looked almost identical to today in OHC and PDO. The warm subsurface pool in the west pac was more potent, but the warm west cool east was very similar to today. And a strong -PDO was prevailing. 3 months later they were in a full blown Nino when the warm subsurface pool surfaced.

 

The chart at the bottom is Feb 2009 OHC... it's upside down from what we're used to. Zero depth is at the bottom, 500m at the top. First this is what today looks like.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Hadcrut4 was also delayed. But +0.43 for January

[skierinvermont]

Latest CFSv2 mean takes the ONI to +.4 by April and +,8 by October. Continuing to trend more Ninoish. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

[AvantHiatus]

That is the one aspect that really stands out. Temperatures may be colder in the US than last year but they are very warm globally, even surpassing 2010. I've never seen Antarctica get as warm as it did in January 2013.

[Jonger]

That is the one aspect that really stands out. Temperatures may be colder in the US than last year but they are very warm globally, even surpassing 2010. I've never seen Antarctica get as warm as it did in January 2013.

Last 30 days were below normal in the arctic.... Funny how that happens.

[skierinvermont]

Last 30 days were below normal in the arctic.... Funny how that happens.

 

I'm pretty sure this was just for north of 80N. The mean for the arctic as a whole rarely goes below average anymore for a whole month.. just two months in the last 10 years. Which is one of the reasons it's hard to get bitter cold anymore.

[nzucker]

I'm pretty sure this was just for north of 80N. The mean for the arctic as a whole rarely goes below average anymore for a whole month.. just two months in the last 10 years. Which is one of the reasons it's hard to get bitter cold anymore.

 

I can't post the map because ESRL is down right now but February was cold across a lot of Siberia and the western half of the Arctic from the Laptev/East Siberian Sea towards the Bering Strait. I wouldn't be surprised if the arctic as a whole finished below average because there was also strong cold anomalies, -8F to -10F, in the Canadian Archipelago with a low of -63F recorded on Ellsmere Island, which may be a record. It's going to be close if the whole arctic was below average but it certainly wasn't far above average. Antarctica was also very cold in February 2013. 

 

As to your post about the lack of bitter cold, it may be generally true but two US states have broken their all-time low temperature records in the past three years: Maine with the low of -50F at Big Black River on 1/16/2009 and Oklahoma with the  low of -31F at Nowata on 2/10/11. So one could actually argue that record cold has increased since the flip to -PDO. 

[ORH_wxman]

I can't post the map because ESRL is down right now but February was cold across a lot of Siberia and the western half of the Arctic from the Laptev/East Siberian Sea towards the Bering Strait. I wouldn't be surprised if the arctic as a whole finished below average because there was also strong cold anomalies, -8F to -10F, in the Canadian Archipelago with a low of -63F recorded on Ellsmere Island, which may be a record. It's going to be close if the whole arctic was below average but it certainly wasn't far above average. Antarctica was also very cold in February 2013. 

 

As to your post about the lack of bitter cold, it may be generally true but two US states have broken their all-time low temperature records in the past three years: Maine with the low of -50F at Big Black River on 1/16/2009 and Oklahoma with the  low of -31F at Nowata on 2/10/11. So one could actually argue that record cold has increased since the flip to -PDO. 

 

 

The cold outbreaks in the US have definitely become fewer recently and less magnitude, but I disagree with skier that is is mainly due to a warmer arctic...at least directly. The cold has mostly been misdirected rather than completely disappeared. Asia has had some epic cold recently during the period where we have been lacking a lot of cold outbreaks (really since about 2004 or 2005)...even just 2 winters ago, the UK had their coldest December on record.

 

Perhaps the warmer arctic is contributing with blocking patterns that favor Asia/Europe due to the melting sea ice...perhaps its just natural variation to the recent blocking patterns or maybe some of both. But whatever the reason, a lot of the bitter cold has been misdirected away from the CONUS and into Asia and Europe in recent winters.

 

 

Cold outbreaks will become fewer and less intense as we continue to warm, but the recent lack of them has much more to do with the N hemispheric patterns rather than the cold smply not being available.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The cold outbreaks in the US have definitely become fewer recently and less magnitude, but I disagree with skier that is is mainly due to a warmer arctic...at least directly. The cold has mostly been misdirected rather than completely disappeared. Asia has had some epic cold recently during the period where we have been lacking a lot of cold outbreaks (really since about 2004 or 2005)...even just 2 winters ago, the UK had their coldest December on record.

 

Perhaps the warmer arctic is contributing with blocking patterns that favor Asia/Europe due to the melting sea ice...perhaps its just natural variation to the recent blocking patterns or maybe some of both. But whatever the reason, a lot of the bitter cold has been misdirected away from the CONUS and into Asia and Europe in recent winters.

 

 

Cold outbreaks will become fewer and less intense as we continue to warm, but the recent lack of them has much more to do with the N hemispheric patterns rather than the cold smply not being available.

 

Variables change quite a bit.  Month to Month, Year to Year, Day to Day, Week to Week.  But I can not agree that it has much more to do with patterns. You are right that patterns dictate cold in many different ways.  But the cold is not near as available period. 

 

 

 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

 

Variables change quite a bit.  Month to Month, Year to Year, Day to Day, Week to Week.  But I can not agree that it has much more to do with patterns. You are right that patterns dictate cold in many different ways.  But the cold is not near as available period. 

 

 

You're arguing a different point than I am. I'm not arguing it isn't warming in the northern hemisphere in winter. I'm arguing that the major shift we have seen in the last decade or so in arctic outbreaks in the CONUS is much more linked to blocking and long wave patterns than the backround warming trend. You can even see that NH winter temps actually peaked earlier last decade in the running means.

[AvantHiatus]

You're arguing a different point than I am. I'm not arguing it isn't warming in the northern hemisphere in winter. I'm arguing that the major shift we have seen in the last decade or so in arctic outbreaks in the CONUS is much more linked to blocking and long wave patterns than the backround warming trend. You can even see that NH winter temps actually peaked earlier last decade in the running means.

Some areas of the globe are cooling at the expense of warming polar regions. This is associated with the historic blocking patterns that have setup, giving record cold temperatures to mid-laditude locations and other anomalous weather

[ORH_wxman]

Some areas of the globe are cooling at the expense of warming polar regions. This is associated with the historic blocking patterns that have setup, giving record cold temperatures to mid-laditude locations and other anomalous weather

 

 

This is possible, but the only real study we have on this is based on about a 5 year sample of frigid Asian winters since around 2007...so very difficult to say for sure.

[skierinvermont]

The cold outbreaks in the US have definitely become fewer recently and less magnitude, but I disagree with skier that is is mainly due to a warmer arctic...at least directly. The cold has mostly been misdirected rather than completely disappeared. Asia has had some epic cold recently during the period where we have been lacking a lot of cold outbreaks (really since about 2004 or 2005)...even just 2 winters ago, the UK had their coldest December on record.

 

Perhaps the warmer arctic is contributing with blocking patterns that favor Asia/Europe due to the melting sea ice...perhaps its just natural variation to the recent blocking patterns or maybe some of both. But whatever the reason, a lot of the bitter cold has been misdirected away from the CONUS and into Asia and Europe in recent winters.

 

 

Cold outbreaks will become fewer and less intense as we continue to warm, but the recent lack of them has much more to do with the N hemispheric patterns rather than the cold smply not being available.

 

 

As I said.. "one of the reasons"

 

Hard to argue against the fact that warm source regions make for less severe cold. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

[skierinvermont]

A little cooler than I would have thought based off AMSU (after adjusting for the AMSU warm bias)

[nzucker]

A little cooler than I would have thought based off AMSU (after adjusting for the AMSU warm bias)

I was a little surprised too, but I think we all knew that January's warmth was a blip. 

 

SSTs still look pretty cold on recent maps with the PDO regions being exceptionally chilly and the northern Atlantic cooling a bit. 

[skierinvermont]

I was a little surprised too, but I think we all knew that January's warmth was a blip. 

 

SSTs still look pretty cold on recent maps with the PDO regions being exceptionally chilly and the northern Atlantic cooling a bit. 

 

 

As I suggested before, I do not think eyeballing the maps is a very accurate way of analyzing global temperature. The time series show that we are at very high global SSTs.

[The_Global_Warmer]

You're arguing a different point than I am. I'm not arguing it isn't warming in the northern hemisphere in winter. I'm arguing that the major shift we have seen in the last decade or so in arctic outbreaks in the CONUS is much more linked to blocking and long wave patterns than the backround warming trend. You can even see that NH winter temps actually peaked earlier last decade in the running means.

 

You are correct about the trends.  We have cooled off some.  I think the PDO probably has merit there, but also the big on going solar min.  Clearly the solar change which has tanked fast and hard shows up in the sat obs but shows up even stronger in the OHC trends.  However Sea Levels and Sat obs show we are losing land ice at an absurd pace.  While weather patterns and natural variation matter, clearly we have seen some big positive feedback's tipped off for the time being.

 

 

It is interesting how the different measures of global climate show warming/cooling/warming/warming/cooling/staying put. 

 

 

 

I agree with you about the arctic outbreaks and the weather patterns holding them at bay.

 

But I also think given the same parameters in balance of a percentage for a 1970s or 1989, 1991, 1994, 2004 cold snap they would be weaker in scope now by duration, depth, strengh, and so on. 

 

 

How much is hard if not impossible to pinpoint since the Weather is not perfectly cyclical. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I was a little surprised too, but I think we all knew that January's warmth was a blip. 

 

SSTs still look pretty cold on recent maps with the PDO regions being exceptionally chilly and the northern Atlantic cooling a bit. 

 

Compared to maybe the upcoming March which will likely be .30 to .40 on UAH.  Much bigger anomaly vs February.  But SSTs globally have been way to warm globally but the NH Spring/Summer will bring an extra heating element to things while the Southern Hemisphere is warmer than it has been in recent times.

 

AMSU shows 2013 back at the top it might be to warm but February show's AMSU tank for a while.  Don't expect that in March.

 

 

As I suggested before, I do not think eyeballing the maps is a very accurate way of analyzing global temperature. The time series show that we are at very high global SSTs.

 

He is right that the global sst's cooled a bit last week.  However the warm is not gone.  And the SST explosion for the NH will ramp up shortly.

 

[skierinvermont]

The seasons have nothing to do with the anomalies. Unless northern hemisphere SST anomalies rise, the transition to NH summer has no bearing on the global temperature anomaly. 

 

Unless you're saying that the NH tends to have bigger anomalies in summer because of arctic sea ice melt? That would be a logical argument.. not sure if it is true or not but it would be easy to check. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The seasons have nothing to do with the anomalies. Unless northern hemisphere SST anomalies rise, the transition to NH summer has no bearing on the global temperature anomaly. 

 

Unless you're saying that the NH tends to have bigger anomalies in summer because of arctic sea ice melt? That would be a logical argument.. not sure if it is true or not but it would be easy to check. 

 

 

 

I am saying we are starting to see the Northern Hemisphere waters in places warm up way beyond normal anomaly's.

 

 

These are monthly from 30-90N. It may not be a huge swing.  But we can see a steadily increasing difference in the warm season vs cool season anomaly's vs the mean.  It seems to correlate to Sea Ice to some degree maybe a big one.  And while 30-90N isn't a ton of surface to cover.  It's still an almost annual SST spike every Summer now.  With 2012 taking the cake behind 2010 and even 2011 was pretty high.  As of Feb the anomaly's were 0.175 or so for the month.  Last Summer they made it to 0.8C at the peak.  we should expect at least 0.6C.  Either way it's not just the 30-90N region warming with Summer it's the actual range of the warming anomaly showing a warming trend.

 

 

 

 

 

here is the 30N-30S region.  We see major ENSO influence but no clear cut seasonal variable trend.

 

 

And the Southern 30-90S.  We can see a seasonal trend possibly in there but it's much smaller and radical than the Northern trend if it exists.

 

 

 

So the Northern part seems to off-setting some cooling elsewhere during like May-Oct or so, to at least some extent.

[The_Global_Warmer]

RSS:

 

2012   1   -0.06092012   2   -0.12342012   3    0.07112012   4    0.33032012   5    0.23092012   6    0.33712012   7    0.25812012   8    0.25412012   9    0.38242012  10    0.29392012  11    0.19512012  12    0.10072013   1    0.44172013   2    0.1943

[skierinvermont]

Pretty cool did not know that Friv... if the anomalies in the NH summer are bigger in recent years than in winter, and there is not much if any seasonal trend in anomalies in the SH, then the globe must also tend to have bigger anomalies in summer? Does that show up in the charts?

[The_Global_Warmer]

Pretty cool did not know that Friv... if the anomalies in the NH summer are bigger in recent years than in winter, and there is not much if any seasonal trend in anomalies in the SH, then the globe must also tend to have bigger anomalies in summer? Does that show up in the charts?

 

 

I don't l know.  I am not able to get the data month by month.

 

As far as right now. Global SST anomaly's have held pretty steady.  It look's like ENSO might be moving warm. 

 

 

 

AMSU is currently around 2010 levels at channel 5 but it might be to warm.  Regardless it warmed up a lot after showing February's huge drop.