AvantHiatus Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 It's hard to say but methane is much higher over the arctic vs the world and the Southern Pole. Where as Co2 is spread out very well. Clearly there is bump in down welling radiation from it up there but it might be way to small to quantify at this point. But the arctic is always warmer regardless of pattern As an aside, I have been looking for information about warming potential of atmospheric methane at various latitudes and seasonal configurations. Perhaps the full effects of localized methane is not being realized in the arctic currently because there is a very minimal amount of solar radiation impacting the Arctic during the winter. I suspect it would have significant effects on next year's summer temperatures when thermal insolation is very high. However actually quantifying how much methane there is will be quite the challenge, there has only been a modest (albeit exponential?) increase compared to previous years and the end effect may not turn out to be significant until way down the road, assuming methane release continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 As an aside, I have been looking for information about warming potential of atmospheric methane at various latitudes and seasonal configurations. Perhaps the full effects of localized methane is not being realized in the arctic currently because there is a very minimal amount of solar radiation impacting the Arctic during the winter. I suspect it would have significant effects on next year's summer temperatures when thermal insolation is very high. However actually quantifying how much methane there is will be quite the challenge, there has only been a modest (albeit exponential?) increase compared to previous years and the end effect may not turn out to be significant until way down the road, assuming methane release continues. Probably not that much anytime soon according to recent studies. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/arctic-and-american-methane-in-context/ The Context Because methane is mostly well-mixed in the atmosphere, emissions from the Arctic or from the US must be seen within the context of the global sources of methane to the atmosphere. Estimates of methane emissions from the Arctic have risen, from land (Walter et al 2006) as well now as from the continental shelf off Siberia. Call it 20-30 Tg CH4 per year from both sources. The US is apparently emitting more than we thought we were, maybe 30 Tg CH4 per year. But these fluxes are relatively small compared to the global emission rate of about 600 Tg CH4 per year. The Arctic and US anthropogenic are each about 5% of the total. Changes in the atmospheric concentration scale more-or-less with changes in the chronic emission flux, so unless these sources suddenly increase by an order of magnitude or more, they won’t dominate the atmospheric concentration of methane, or its climate impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 It probably won't effect November at this point. But CFS is up to .32C. I don't expect December to beat November. So there will have to a a period around 0C on CFS or below you would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 I apologize for my redundancy but CFS at the 18z update is up near .34C. The monthly has reached .162C. So it will probably end up correlating to a .72C on GISS. I can't see it going above .175C before the end of tomorrow. I did not expect this. EDIT: 00z update up to .36C or so on the dailies. and .163C for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I apologize for my redundancy but CFS at the 18z update is up near .34C. The monthly has reached .162C. So it will probably end up correlating to a .72C on GISS. I can't see it going above .175C before the end of tomorrow. I did not expect this. EDIT: 00z update up to .36C or so on the dailies. and .163C for the month. November will probably come out with an impressively warm anomaly on GISS (probably around +0.70°C +/- .02°C). There were large parts of the world that saw November have warmer anomalies than October. The cold that occurred in parts of North America won't alter the global outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 CFS ended November at .170C. CFS is currently at .414C to start the month of December. It has gone above .40C twice the last day and the only time in 2013 it has gotten this warm. global ssta have cooled a bit I would expect an abrupt drop soon from these heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 CFS has actually gone up to .48C today. http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 CFS went up to .54C today. Amazing. Eurasia has +20C anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 CFS went up to .54C today. Amazing. Eurasia has +20C anomalies. I thought the Weather-bell map was glitched, turns out that the global temperature average resets each month. Correct me but is a .54c anomaly not a 1.0+ on GISS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 I thought the Weather-bell map was glitched, turns out that the global temperature average resets each month. Correct me but is a .54c anomaly not a 1.0+ on GISS? yeah. .54C would be 1.09C on GISS. The month so far through 2 days is .451C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 yeah. .54C would be 1.09C on GISS. The month so far through 2 days is .451C. What is the highest daily max temperature record on CFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 What is the highest daily max temperature record on CFS? Prior to 2010 it had temperatures reach 0.7 pretty regularly. According to the Weatherbell graphs, it appears that the CFSv2 has 2008 warmer than 2010, 2011, and 2012, which is pretty ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yes the CFS is not a measurement and so is not suitable for determining how one year compares to another (or long-term trends). However, if you calibrate GISS to recent CFS measurements, you can determine the current temperature anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yes the CFS is not a measurement and so is not suitable for determining how one year compares to another (or long-term trends). However, if you calibrate GISS to recent CFS measurements, you can determine the current temperature anomaly. Considering this, is it possible (without looking at the CFS) to find the highest daily global temperature from GISS data? So far i've only found monthly data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 UAH drops a tenth since last month: YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS 2013 01 +0.496 +0.512 +0.481 +0.387 2013 02 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195 2013 03 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243 2013 04 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165 2013 05 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112 2013 06 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220 2013 07 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.074 2013 08 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009 2013 09 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.189 2013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.250 +0.031 2013 11 +0.193 +0.159 +0.227 +0.018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 saw this I know its not global but the US is about to get damn cold and could have -20c anomalies CFS went up to .54C today. Amazing. Eurasia has +20C anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 UAH drops a tenth since last month: YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS 2013 01 +0.496 +0.512 +0.481 +0.387 2013 02 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195 2013 03 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243 2013 04 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165 2013 05 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112 2013 06 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220 2013 07 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.074 2013 08 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009 2013 09 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.189 2013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.250 +0.031 2013 11 +0.193 +0.159 +0.227 +0.018 UAH is the dataset that does not incorporate polar temperature anomalies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 UAH is the dataset that does not incorporate polar temperature anomalies? No, that's RSS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 No, that's RSS. I'm sure it has been discussed before but how does one explain the large difference between GISS and UAH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'm sure it has been explained before but how do you explain the large difference between GISS and UAH? They measure two different things. UAH measures the Lower part of the troposphere, whereas GISS measures surface based temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'm sure it has been discussed before but how does one explain the large difference between GISS and UAH? As SL said, they measure two different things. The annual temperature rankings are similar but not quite the same. On a month to month timescale, however, there is almost no correlation. One can be hot and the other cold. In addition, there is the difference in baselines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 No, that's RSS. And RSS really only omits southern polar temperatures. It is pretty well covered in the arctic. (up to 82.5N) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 That locks UAH in as the 4th or 5th warmest year on record this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 CFS now out to 00zdec05 is at .410C for the month. The dailies have finally taken the plunge back down. But are still above .20C on the dailies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 CFS is still at .370C for the month and hasn't gone below .20C yet on the dailies. actually its dipped slightly below that. Global ssta dropped to .24C last week down from 28C Barring a huge plunge. December on CFS will probably not be able to drop below .10C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 What happened to the daily updates on this? Does this mean CFS is no longer showing amazing spikes of heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 What happened to the daily updates on this? Does this mean CFS is no longer showing amazing spikes of heat? You'll note that two posts back Friv pointed out the dailies have "taken the plunge but are still above .2" and in the next post he points out that they have dropped below .2. So he did point out the plunge. Satisfied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Been busy with tracking winter storms. We have another one Friday. Secondly CFS is still .213C for the first third of December. CFS dailies are slightly below zero. So if you think I am agenda pushing I can leave for teh month and come back on December 31st and I bet you CFS will be above .10C. Which makes December another warm month. It's not like actually cool. It's been "normal" on CFS for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You'll note that two posts back Friv pointed out the dailies have "taken the plunge but are still above .2" and in the next post he points out that they have dropped below .2. So he did point out the plunge. Satisfied? I just noticed that there were daily updates for awhile, mostly about how CFS was running remarkably warm, and then after that last post about the drop - nothing for days. It appears my assumption was right - the daily CFS stopped showing great spikes of warmth. And coincidentally or not, the daily updates ceased as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Monthly CFS down to .189 YTD is only 0.049 What a scorcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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