2013 Global Temperatures

[nflwxman]

And summer.

 

A couple of warm months in the autumn is not unusual in recent years. It's hardly a good predictor of next year's temps. We need a whole year to average 0.68C or higher to break the record.

Are you sure that is not a product of timing with ENSO?

[ORH_wxman]

Hasn't October been the warmest anomaly of the year since 2000?

 

 

No, November has been.

[ORH_wxman]

Are you sure that is not a product of timing with ENSO?

 

 

Yes. October and November have been two of the warmest months in recent years.

[SVT450R]

Friv if Jonger bothers you so much why not put him on ignore.

[tacoman25]

False.  1980, 1981 are both ENSO neutral years that have broken records.  You are going to reply that was in positive PDO phase, which is correct, but the positive forcing in 2014 is stronger than 1981.

 

Sorry, I should have said since 1990.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Friv if Jonger bothers you so much why not put him on ignore.

 

He is on ignore.  I only saw his post because it was quoted. 

 

If everyone here acted like Jonger this forum would dissolve in a day.  He could of just said he doesn't think a NINO would cause a new record.

 

 

But what he did was classic Jonger BS.  In the last three years I have probably been trolled over a thousand times here directly.  It gets old and it makes me an ***hole here overtime. 

 

I don't see why we can't just stick to a discussion and cut the personal ****. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Maybe someone can run the 0-700M OHC correlation to global temps. 

 

OHC sky rocketed in late 1996.  I'm guessing a big part was ENSO sub-surface.  We saw how temps responded afterwards. 

 

We will have to see how much of an impact this jump will have. 

 

This years warm November is not caused by the arctic like 2012. 

 

 

 

I can't see how a real NINO weak or strong won't be warmest than the past.  Given how warm other parts of the worlds ocean are now with almost no reprieve.

 

 

[skierinvermont]

You have been honking el Nino every 3 days or so since I started posting here. Why do you want that so bad?

 

Seriously, Friv is right. Why ruin the thread with a personal and irrelevant accusation that didn't have anything to do with what he said? I don't see him lurking around every corner to criticize you. All Friv said is that the ENSO progression will be important. That's not even a controversial statement.

[tacoman25]

Maybe someone can run the 0-700M OHC correlation to global temps. 

 

OHC sky rocketed in late 1996.  I'm guessing a big part was ENSO sub-surface.  We saw how temps responded afterwards. 

 

We will have to see how much of an impact this jump will have. 

 

This years warm November is not caused by the arctic like 2012. 

 

 

 

I can't see how a real NINO weak or strong won't be warmest than the past.  Given how warm other parts of the worlds ocean are now with almost no reprieve.

 

 

 

 

You have to remember that ENSO is part of that. When +ENSO occurs, other parts of the oceans often cool to an extent. So there is some off-setting. It sounds like you are just assuming that if a Nino developed, all the other warm SSTA's will stay warm as well.

[ORH_wxman]

You have to remember that ENSO is part of that. When +ENSO occurs, other parts of the oceans often cool to an extent. So there is some off-setting. It sounds like you are just assuming that if a Nino developed, all the other warm SSTA's will stay warm as well.

 

 

The North Pacific warm pool would reverse during a +ENSO...we saw this in the 2009-2010 El Nino.

[The_Global_Warmer]

You have to remember that ENSO is part of that. When +ENSO occurs, other parts of the oceans often cool to an extent. So there is some off-setting. It sounds like you are just assuming that if a Nino developed, all the other warm SSTA's will stay warm as well.

That is a good point.

I have actually asked that question in this thread a few Times this year.

I think people may have been confused about what I was asking.

SSTA during that niño were only slightly higher than what we have experienced the last few months. Just more consistently around the .30c mark for longer.

I think with OHC rising again. We should see the baseline adjust upward even if its just a little bit like .05C.

If we get a niño equivalent to the 2009-2010 one going into Summer I think we reach the .40C mark with ease for a few months. Might even touch .50C on the weeklies if it is in September and October.

[bluewave]

Ed Hawkins included the Cowan & Way recent Arctic temperature correction to HadCRUT4.

While it's warmer since it fills in missing observations like GISS and NCEP

temperatures, it doesn't move the global temperature needle all that much since the Arctic

is so small an area relative to the rest of the globe. It also puts into perspective how we are

still near the bottom of the model projections.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Cfs dropped a bit from the high of .33C yesterday to .25C as of 00Z20NOV2013.

The monthly is now at 0.152C. Giss equivelant of .70C(.65-.75).

Amsu channel 6 temps are holding steady in the top 3 years going back to 2002. 2012 plummets the last part of November. So far it's been well above 2013.

Novemver of 2012 started out very very warm and temps plummeted at the end. As we went into the cool December with Eurasia cold as hell.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Here is the latest arctic temp forecast from the GFS.  It appears to be from about 65N to 90N. 

 

 

This is the climo for the same period.  This is based on the 1981-2010 climo.  So in terms of GISS this is quite a bit inaccurate since GISS uses 1951-1980. Never the less it gives us a great idea of the general weather up there and how it relates to global temperatures.

 

 

 

Here is the actual forecasted temps which we can compare to the climo above.  What is most telling isn't how warm the arctic is.  I mean when it's supposed to be -20C to -26C over the entire basin except for a couple spots on the edges. It seems rather easy to get large anomalies. 

 

 

What is noticible to me is that even though the warm air is located over the Russian side.  The cold anomalies are all over regions that are higher elevation on the NA side.  In Alaska where there is very high mountains.  The far NE tip of Siberia.  Where elevations are in the 500-1000M range. 

 

 

The Canadian Basin has 850MB temps around -20C for pretty much the entire period being discussed.  Even some -25C 850mb temps show up and move around.  But surface temps still stay above normal.  Only where elevation is higher on land or over glacial fields or glacial mountains. 

 

 

Without AllenHuffmans anomaly charts I can't see how warm the 850s are over the torching regions vs surface temp anomalies but I would be thinking they are no where near as warm and widespread as the surface warmth appears to be. 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Weatherbell shows the global temps cool off on the dailies today to under .10C for the first time in two weeks.  The montly temps have been stuck around .15C for 3-4 days now.  The dailies ended up back to .11C or so. 
 

The slight drop from near record levels to more modest warmth is likely in response to the big cold dump into North America.

 

 

Land temps can have big noticeable fluctuations on global temps.

 

However it only means the extra heat is probably going into the oceans somewhere.

 

 

In this case the North Pacific.  Which has flared up again after a reprieve.  The equatorial WPAC is also warming again after a reprieve.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

SSTA weeklies came in up from last week.  back up to .28C+.  This is quite high for this time of year.  Given the current ENSO state it's very high.  ENSO sub-surface charts show warmer waters are making there way to the surface now.  So that region should warm quite a bit. Especially ENSO 3, 4.

 

 

On top of that.  A large portion of this warming happened as this week went on.  And has continued to do so. 

 

In-fact with the Eurasian torch showing no sign of a let up. The models keep the Kara SLP in place for the foreseeable future.  The North Pacific will see a stall in the warming with a couple SLPs moving through before a massive HP that will extend into Alaska and parts of the arctic basin blows up.

 

On top of that a massive HP is expected to take over the North Atlantic.  With ENSO warming.  The Southern Hemisphere oceans warming.  The cold folds up and heads back to Canada for a week. 

 

The anomalies over Eurasia have been huge and they will get even bigger as winter goes on and the Westerlies keep blowing hard around the Kara SLP. 

 

I don't see us getting any cooling.  Except when cold is displaced into the mid lats.  Which without Eurasian help.  The CONUS would have to be off the charts cold and we have been off the charts cold the last few days and CFS only dropped below .10C for one 6 hour period. 

 

 

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

N. Pac is torching

[donsutherland1]

The CONUS would have to be off the charts cold and we have been off the charts cold the last few days and CFS only dropped below .10C for one 6 hour period. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Essentially, the cold in the CONUS and part of Canada accounted for almost all of the Northern Hemisphere's colder than normal anomalies.

 

 

[tacoman25]

N. Pac is torching

 

-PDO baby!

[The_Global_Warmer]

So far on the month we haven't been to cool.  But the conus should pick up some larger anomalies over the next few days.

 

 

We can only see a small part of Eurasia but that small part is expected to keep torching hard.  It's likely the GFS is way to cold as well in the medium range with 2m temps with these kind of set ups this time of year.

 

 

 

[Jonger]

Essentially, the cold in the CONUS and part of Canada accounted for almost all of the Northern Hemisphere's colder than normal anomalies.

 

 

 

Amazing how the south pole and north pole flipped anomalies all of a sudden.

[nzucker]

So far on the month we haven't been to cool. But the conus should pick up some larger anomalies over the next few days.

We can only see a small part of Eurasia but that small part is expected to keep torching hard. It's likely the GFS is way to cold as well in the medium range with 2m temps with these kind of set ups this time of year.

Of course you neglect to mention the extremely cold anomalies in North America, especially from Northwest Canada into the Prairies/Northern Plains and Mountain West. A lot of those places will have -15F to -20F anomalies in the next week or two. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean has turned cold again as well.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Of course you neglect to mention the extremely cold anomalies in North America, especially from Northwest Canada into the Prairies/Northern Plains and Mountain West. A lot of those places will have -15F to -20F anomalies in the next week or two. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean has turned cold again as well.

 

 

I don't have any charts of Antarctica's forecated temperature anomalies.  The most recent realiable daily chart is from the 23rd.  Which shows Antarctica looking pretty damn nuetral.  I am not sure how that is much of an oversite.  It has no impact on things. 

 

 

 

 

As far as the Southern Ocean it is running very cool.  I have mentioned this multiple times this month.  It has been the same for 4 weeks now.  It has dropped -0.4C in the last 4 weeks.  Again this is no impact.  The impact which is very small already took place over a month ago. 

 

 

 

Global ssta have gone up three weeks in a row.  now at .25C+ again.  They will hover between .25 and .30C for a while.  The Southern Pacific and Indian Oceans have seen warmth explode. 

 

the cool is being overwhelmed everywhere.  It's only a matter of time now.  I am not trying to push an agenda.  Most of the cool is in the Eastern Pacific.  There is some along the Southern Ocean.   But further South heat is building.. 

 

 

Inspite of the Southern Ocean dropping about -0.3C on this weeks update.  That came out today.  Global SSTA rose by 0.3C. 

 

 

 

 

 

Again about the up coming cold anomalies over parts of Western North America.  The graphic I refereced goes out to December 3rd.  The cold drops into those region around Dec 2-3rd.  That is a week away.  I just don't see how I am "failing" to mention these things.  Exspecially when the global ssta have been on the rise for 6 weeks.  After only making it to .22C.  now they are at .28C with a negative ONI still.  Which is quite unheard off.

 

CFS is still at .152C for the month. Which equals a .70C on GISS.

 

The first thing I posted today when I saw the CFS charts was the recently cool off from the large warm anomalies. 

 

 

Weatherbell shows the global temps cool off on the dailies today to under .10C for the first time in two weeks.  The montly temps have been stuck around .15C for 3-4 days now.  The dailies ended up back to .11C or so.

 

 

 

 

If you think it's important to state that the Southern Ocean or parts of NA in a week or two is the reason temps are not breaking records instead of being near or at records at times feel free.  I don't think that is neccesarily counter intuitive.  But there role is very very small.

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS has gone back up to the .25-.26C range on the dailies. 

 

And .158C on the month with two days to go.  It appears December will start out very warm. 

 

If NA stays cold.  It might help temper things a bit. But it won't be anything like Eurasia pulled off last year.

 

December started off about -.15C on CFS last year because of the massive vortex over there.  This year it's much warmer.  The oceans are warmer. 

 

OHC takes forever to compute.  Still no update for JAS. 

 

Inspite of a 2SD AO+ during this period the arctic still comes in 2.1C above normal.  And that is vs 1981-2010.  The arctic vs the GISS baseline of 1950-1981 is probably 3.0C+ just guessing off the top if my head.  I bet Russians have been happy about this.

 

[skierinvermont]

So .71C for GISS expected for December

[AvantHiatus]

Would be interesting to know how much localized methane release is impacting Arctic temperatures. Some areas continue to spew out decent amounts of methane through the seabed or tundra. The world-wide impact has appeared to be minimal, at least up until now.

 

I was expecting the methane release rate to slow down since the Arctic is now refreezing, however that is quite a bad pattern on the Russian side.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Would be interesting to know how much localized methane release is impacting Arctic temperatures. Some areas continue to spew out decent amounts of methane through the seabed or tundra. The world-wide impact has appeared to be minimal, at least up until now.

 

I was expecting the methane release rate to slow down since the Arctic is now refreezing, however that is quite a bad pattern on the Russian side.

 

 

 

 

It's hard to say but methane is much higher over the arctic vs the world and the Southern Pole. Where as Co2 is spread out very well.

 

Clearly there is bump in down welling radiation from it up there but it might be way to small to quantify at this point.

 

 

But the arctic is always warmer regardless of pattern

[The_Global_Warmer]

So .71C for GISS expected for December

 

 

I think you mean November.

 

But yes. 

[AvantHiatus]

I think you mean November.

 

But yes. 

How does that compare to other Novembers? .71 sounds like record-breaking territory or at least in the top 3 warmest.

[ORH_wxman]

How does that compare to other Novembers? .71 sounds like record-breaking territory or at least in the top 3 warmest.

 

 

It would rank as the 4th warmest November on record. Behind 2010, 2009, and 2005