2013 Global Temperatures

[Jonger]

The newer studies that take the PDO into account have slower warming over the next 100 years or so than was previously shown

in older model studies. But 1.4C of further warming is still a very significant temperature rise. It's pretty much

a guarantee that we'll pass the 2C of total warming that scientists want us to avoid by then on a business as

usual path. It would be great if we were closer to transitioning to a post carbon economy now. But that may have

to wait for 2050-2100 when technology progresses further enough.

 

 

http://www.scienceda...10918144941.htm

 

 

To track where the heat was going, Meehl and colleagues used a powerful software tool known as the Community Climate System Model, which was developed by scientists at NCAR and the Department of Energy with colleagues at other organizations. Using the model's ability to portray complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, oceans, and sea ice, they performed five simulations of global temperatures.

The simulations, which were based on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, indicated that temperatures would rise by several degrees during this century. But each simulation also showed periods in which temperatures would stabilize for about a decade before climbing again. For example, one simulation showed the global average rising by about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4 degrees Celsius) between 2000 and 2100, but with two decade-long hiatus periods during the century.

 

 I would expect co2 emissions to begin to flat-line within 30 years. The amount of momentum with alternative fuels is amazing, all because of economics mostly.

[bluewave]

 I would expect co2 emissions to begin to flat-line within 30 years. The amount of momentum with alternative fuels is amazing, all because of economics mostly.

 

I think the main problem with that is the emerging growth in places like India and China are signaling an increase

in coal burning well into the future since it's the cheapest source for them. Germany is actually having to fall back

on burning more coal now since they are closing down nuclear plants and renewables can't cover the remaining 

demand. But the good news is that we will have cleaner air in this country with more shale gas burning

and fewer hours driven on the roads.

 

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=coal-on-the-rise-globally-despite-drop-in-the-us

 

Cheap shale gas is significantly reducing coal demand in the United States, but global coal consumption is still expected to rise 2.6 percent annually by 2017, the International Energy Agency said today in a report.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-19/merkel-s-green-shift-forces-germany-to-burn-more-coal-energy.html

 

 

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government says RWE AG (RWE)’s new power plant that can supply 3.4 million homes aids her plan to exit nuclear energy and switch to cleaner forms of generation. It’s fired with coal.

The startup of the 2,200-megawatt station near Cologne last week shows how Europe’s largest economy is relying more on the most-polluting fuel. Coal consumption has risen 4.9 percent since Merkel announced a plan to start shutting the country’s atomic reactors after last year’s Fukushima disaster in Japan.

 

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/DOT-Miles-Driven.php

 

[Jonger]

 I would expect co2 emissions to begin to flat-line within 30 years. The amount of momentum with alternative fuels is amazing, all because of economics mostly.

 

I thing the main problem with that is the emerging growth in places like India and China are signaling an increase

in coal burning well into the future since it's the cheapest source for them. Germany is actually having to fall back

on burning more coal now since they are closing down nuclear plants and renewables can't cover the remaining 

demand. 

Is energy consumption going up in existing strong economic countries?

Most charts I saw, show co2 outputs dropping in most countries. Wind turbine generation is only going up and up, aside from other sources of clean energy.

It will be interesting to follow, to say the least.

[bluewave]

Is energy consumption going up in existing strong economic countries? Most charts I saw, show co2 outputs dropping in most countries. Wind turbine generation is only going up and up, aside from other sources of clean energy. It will be interesting to follow, to say the least.

 

China finally surpassed us.

 

 

[Jonger]

We can see chart above has already been proven wrong in the US.... That's 2007 data, co2 emission continue to fall despite that chart showing a rise.... Granted, the economic problems never hit yet in 2007, but recent decreases are from natural gas and energy efficiency improvements.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Wow.  Another day.  Another warm CFS output.  The monthlies through 12z  11-16-13 are up to .130C(.68C) on GISS.  The dailies dropped into the .175C range for a bit now back up around .20C.

 

I think the Indian Ocean is playing a role in this warm spell.  The region has warmed up a lot on the global maps.

[The_Global_Warmer]

After a small dip on the CFS dailies the day ending 00z18nov2013 is up to .29C now.

 

The monthly is now up to .138C.

 

Channel 6 temps have been almost dead steady for 10 days now.  They are now 3rd warmest for this time of year.  Probably 2nd after tomorrow.

 

I will update the ssta weeklies tomorrow. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

the global ssta weeklies stayed essentially the same.  Right around .25C. 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

WOW.

 

CFS has jumped to .32C on the dailies and is up to .144C for the month as of 18zNOV182013.

 

 

 

The Indian ocean is a big reason why.  the Atlantic has cooled off a lot.  Which prevented SSTA from going up.  The Antarctic ice edge is cooler than normal but its a small area. 

 

ENSO is warming up still sub-surface. 

 

 

 

 

 

[skierinvermont]

We probably have a 30% chance at breaking the November GISS global temperature record this month set at .75 in 2010. Best guess at this time is .70C.

[The_Global_Warmer]

We probably have a 30% chance at breaking the November GISS global temperature record this month set at .75 in 2010. Best guess at this time is .70C.

 

Do you know much about the Indian ocean and it's warm vs cool phases.

 

That region of warmth is around 20-30S.  Which is a very large area vs the big torches of the NPAC around 40-55N. 

 

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png

 

We can see the Indian ocean warmth show up on CFS.  Before the big warm run this month it wasn't there.

 

 

Now I wonder how ENSO will play out.  It will have a big big role in 2014s yearly regime.

[Jonger]

We probably have a 30% chance at breaking the November GISS global temperature record this month set at .75 in 2010. Best guess at this time is .70C.

 

Do you know much about the Indian ocean and it's warm vs cool phases.

 

That region of warmth is around 20-30S.  Which is a very large area vs the big torches of the NPAC around 40-55N. 

 

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png

 

We can see the Indian ocean warmth show up on CFS.  Before the big warm run this month it wasn't there.

 

 

Now I wonder how ENSO will play out.  It will have a big big role in 2014s yearly regime.

You have been honking el Nino every 3 days or so since I started posting here. Why do you want that so bad?

[AvantHiatus]

You have been honking el Nino every 3 days or so since I started posting here. Why do you want that so bad?

It would be interesting for research purposes to see how warm we could get with another 1998-esque super el nino event. We've had quite an extended period of neutral and/or la nina.

[Jonger]

You have been honking el Nino every 3 days or so since I started posting here. Why do you want that so bad? It would be interesting for research purposes to see how warm we could get with another 1998-esque super el nino event. We've had quite an extended period of neutral and/or la nina.

I guess so, its not going to change anything besides being another hundredth of a degree above the same figures we have been steady at for 15 years.

 

El Nino's typically wreak havoc on certain parts of the world, its just kind of a dumb thing to root for.

[The_Global_Warmer]

How long will the snow bunnies be allowed to troll, lie, and ruin this forum?

 

Just shut it down.  I am serious.  If folks like jonger can continually do this crap.  Why even bother?   Why bother?

 

The forum says climate change. 

 

It doesn't say hopefully snow bunny land.  It says Climate Change.

 

If people don't get why this is just absurdly stupid at this point that jonger is allowed to ruin this place like this.  You are either stupid, as ignorant as he is, or purposefully backing him ruining this place.

 

 

So let's drop the charade and make a choice about this place.  If the snow bunnies can't handle coming to this website and leaving the CC forum alone unless they have something of use to contribute to the discussion then the forum needs to be shut down. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

To say I am rooting for a NINO.  Which is not true.  But then to add this:

 

El Nino's typically wreak havoc on certain parts of the world, its just kind of a dumb thing to root for.

 

 

 

Should be an instant ban from this forum for at least a month.  So this dude is allowed to initially bold face lie about another person(me) and what I am doing here.  Then to top it off writes that crap to make me look worse.  Is BULL****. 

[nflwxman]

I guess so, its not going to change anything besides being another hundredth of a degree above the same figures we have been steady at for 15 years.

 

El Nino's typically wreak havoc on certain parts of the world, its just kind of a dumb thing to root for.

 

Jonger,

 

La Ninas also impact some parts of the world.  The folks in Texas have had some of their worst crop returns the last 5 years or so due to the persistent La Nina conditions.  Also as an aside, El Ninos are usually beneficial for snow for the plurality of people on this board that live in the MA and NYC area.

[nflwxman]

We probably have a 30% chance at breaking the November GISS global temperature record this month set at .75 in 2010. Best guess at this time is .70C.

Who needs a nino to break records?  These past few months are one of the reasons why I think all we MAY need is ENSO positive for 10 months or so to break the global temperature record in 2014.  Again, not saying it's likely, just possible.

[Jonger]

To say I am rooting for a NINO.  Which is not true.  But then to add this:   El Nino's typically wreak havoc on certain parts of the world, its just kind of a dumb thing to root for.       Should be an instant ban from this forum for at least a month.  So this dude is allowed to initially bold face lie about another person(me) and what I am doing here.  Then to top it off writes that crap to make me look worse.  Is BULL****. 

Um, so you don't want an el Nino? You just ask about every 3 days about a possible el Nino signature for S&Gs. If anything, your attitude is going to get this board shut down all together. From reading at DBM, you were one of the main members to result in stormtracker making his sticky post.

 

How many more times are you going to call various members a "liar"?

[tacoman25]

It would be interesting for research purposes to see how warm we could get with another 1998-esque super el nino event. We've had quite an extended period of neutral and/or la nina.

 

Forget about the strong El Nino in 2009-10?

[AvantHiatus]

Forget about the strong El Nino in 2009-10?

Good call here, it was still a magnitude weaker than 1998 and occurred on top of a substantial background -PDO.

 

[tacoman25]

Who needs a nino to break records?  These past few months are one of the reasons why I think all we MAY need is ENSO positive for 10 months or so to break the global temperature record in 2014.  Again, not saying it's likely, just possible.

 

Every record-breaking year has come from an El Nino.

[tacoman25]

Good call here, it was still a magnitude weaker than 1998 and occurred on top of a substantial background -PDO.

 

Sure, and we're still in the -PDO phase. That's not going to change anytime soon. It is much harder to get massive El Ninos during this phase.

[AvantHiatus]

Sure, and we're still in the -PDO phase. That's not going to change anytime soon. It is much harder to get massive El Ninos during this phase.

I see a few strong el nino and la nina events embedded in the opposite PDO phase, it is quite rare...appears to be about a rate of 1 event per 20 years.

[nflwxman]

Every record-breaking year has come from an El Nino.

False.  1980, 1981 are both ENSO neutral years that have broken records.  You are going to reply that was in positive PDO phase, which is correct, but the positive forcing in 2014 is stronger than 1981.

[ORH_wxman]

1990 was ENSO neutral and broke a record. That was the last one to break a record in a non-Nino year. 2014 won't break a record unless we develop a late Nino this winter and somehow sustain it. The first half of the year will end up too cold otherwise.

[nflwxman]

1990 was ENSO neutral and broke a record. That was the last one to break a record in a non-Nino year. 2014 won't break a record unless we develop a late Nino this winter and somehow sustain it. The first half of the year will end up too cold otherwise.

On what basis can you claim it will be too cold?  Based on the global temperatures in the past few winters?

 

Let's look at the past 6 years (since 2008) winters and ENSO:

 

2008: Strong La Nina impacting the winter

2009: Weak La Nina conditions 

2010: Strong El Nino conditions- warmest Jan-April conditions globally by a good amount

2011: Strong La Nina conditions

2012: Weak La Nina conditions

2013: First half of the winter ENSO positive, Second half ENSO negative

[Jonger]

False.  1980, 1981 are both ENSO neutral years that have broken records.  You are going to reply that was in positive PDO phase, which is correct, but the positive forcing in 2014 is stronger than 1981.

 

True, for numerous factors. 

 

1980 was near the peak of Sulfur aerosols too.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

On what basis can you claim it will be too cold?  Based on the global temperatures in the past few winters?

 

And summer.

 

A couple of warm months in the autumn is not unusual in recent years. It's hardly a good predictor of next year's temps. We need a whole year to average 0.68C or higher to break the record.

[Jonger]

And summer.

 

A couple of warm months in the autumn is not unusual in recent years. It's hardly a good predictor of next year's temps. We need a whole year to average 0.68C or higher to break the record.

 

Hasn't October been the warmest anomaly of the year since 2000?